Sep 20 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended higher closed to best levels of the session. Denmark +2.1%, Spain +1.3%, Austria +1.1% led overperformers whilst Greece (2.2%) bucked the firmer trend
Focus on latest inflation data coming from the UK ahead of BoE decision on Thursday. CPI in the UK unexpectedly fell in August to +6.7% vs consensus +7.0% and prior +6.8% outturn. Core reading also much softer at +6.2% vs +6.8% forecast and prior +6.9%. ONS said largest downward contribution came from food prices and accommodations services, which offset rising motor fuel prices. Services inflation also weaker at +6.8% vs +7.4%. Analysts still expect the BoE to hike one more time, but probability of a hike dropped to 50%. In Germany, producer prices posted the biggest fall on record in August, falling by (12.6%) y/y, in line with expectations.
Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged later today. Previews noted 2023 dot likely to continue to show one more rate hike, though Powell expected to stress data dependency.
This side of the Atlantic, EU chief von der Leyen highlighted need for level playing field behind investigation into Chinese support for electric vehicles in a Bloomberg interview; also talked up Ukraine's EU membership bid. Meanwhile, France and Germany have tabled plan for new outer tier EU membership, that could include the UK under a Labour government.
In corporate news, Baloise (BALN.SW) reported H1 net income CHF205.7M, (4%) vs year-ago CHF214.7M and sees lower H2 earnings by an amount in the mid-double-digit million. Also in the DACH region, Commerzbank (CBK.GR) expects to earn net interest income of €8B this year. UBS (UBSG.SW) Vice-Chair said Credit Suisse could make substantial losses in H2.
In the UK, M&G (MNG.LN) posted H1 EPS 2.9p vs year-ago (45.2p) and said it's on track to achieve its operating capital generation target of £2.5B by 2024; Dunelm Group (DNLM.LN) FY EPS 75.0p vs FactSet 74.0p and expects to see FY24 sales and PBT growth, driven by volume.
On M&A front, Finsbury Food (FIF.LN) agreed to £143.4M takeover offer by Frisbee Bidco, a company owned by funds managed by DBAY; T-C Storage HoldCo AB to launch a recommended voluntary cash tender offer for 100% of Self Storage Group at NOK 40/share, valuing the company ~ NOK3.78B; Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN) to acquire Bluestone Motor Finance; Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) confirmed potential sale of foodpanda business in selected markets in Southeast Asia. Unilever (ULVR.LN) reportedly restarts efforts to sell certain of its non-core beauty and personal care brands; Shell Plc (SHEL.LN) initiates strategic review of green energy portfolio in India.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Real Estate+2.17%, Autos & Parts +1.93%, Banks +1.71%, Retail +1.65%, Health Care +1.61%, Construct & Mtls +1.47%, Basic Resources +0.97%, Telecom +0.97%, Chemicals +0.95%, Utilities +0.93%, Food & Beverage +0.92%,
Underperformers
Oil & Gas (0.61%), Insurance (0.02%), Media +0.18%, Technology +0.64%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.65%, Financial Svcs +0.67%, Travel & Leisure +0.77%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.77%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Gas
European gas prices may be 20% lower than forecast next summer - Bloomberg
Oil
Oil falls $1 ahead of Fed rate decision - Reuters
UK
Germany
Italy
Meloni told China about plans to leave BRI, says Tajani - Ansa
Belgium
Belgium's eternal asylum crisis - Politico
Greece
Greek democracy seen at risk without a welfare state - ekathimerini
Spain
Spanish parliament approves use of all official languages, EU postpones decision - euractiv
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+375.0% ALPHA.FP (Pharnext €1.71, +1.35) -- close to signing license agreement for PXT3003, worth ~ €400M
+65.0% SSG.NO (Self Storage Group NOK39.60, +15.60) -- recommended cash offer at NOK 40/share by T-C Storage HoldCo AB
+44.1% PHO.NO (PhotoCure NOK60.80, +18.60) -- PhotoCure partner Asieris announces that the first non-vaccine investigational product for cervical HSIL has achieved its primary endpoint
+23.0% FIF.LN (Finsbury Food Group £1.10, +0.21) -- cash offer at 110p/share by Frisbee Bidco
+15.9% WIN.LN (Wincanton £2.84, +0.39) -- agreement with Group's Pension Scheme Trustee
+13.9% PDG.LN (Pendragon £0.27, +0.03) -- board unanimously reject an unsolicited and preliminary cash offer at 28p/share from Hedin Mobility Group and PAG International
+12.8% ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics CHF0.07, +0.01) -- €4M Eurostars grant
+11.0% OXB.LN (Oxford BioMedica £2.68, +0.27) -- H1 earnings; acquisiton of ABL Europe; Numis upgrade
+8.9% CANTA.SS (Cantargia SEK4.38, +0.36) -- new preclinical data on nadunolimab potential to enhance anti-tumor effect of immunotherapy presented at cri-enci-AACR
+7.7% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €32.10, +2.31) -- initiated buy at Hauck & Aufhäuser
+5.6% NYKD.NO (Nykode Therapeutics NOK28.96, +1.54) -- announces advances in clinical pipeline and research
+5.4% AMP.IM (Amplifon €30.28, +1.55) -- HSBC upgrade
+5.2% UCG.IM (UniCredit €23.20, +1.15) -- launches €2.5B tranche of its 2023 share buyback programme
+3.8% AMS.LN (Advanced Medical Solutions Group £1.87, +0.07) -- H1 earnings; Liberum Capital upgrade
+3.7% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £5.78, +0.21) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+3.6% YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding CHF276.00, +9.50) -- long-term supply agreement
+3.4% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £8.65, +0.29) -- to acquire Bluestone Motor Finance
+3.4% JDG.LN (Judges Scientific £92.00, +3.00) -- H1 earnings
+3.3% UCB.BB (UCB €84.48, +2.68) -- BLA for bimekizumab update
+3.2% IQG.LN (IQGeo Group £2.90, +0.09) -- major new contract; initiated buy at Investec
+3.0% AZN.LN (AstraZeneca £109.32, +3.16) -- Alexion completes purchase and licence agreement for early-stage rare disease gene therapy portfolio from Pfizer
Notable Decliners
-12.8% ALVIV.FP (Visiativ €27.90, -4.10) -- H1 earnings; SHIFT5 2028 strategic plan
-10.0% TLX.GR (Talanx €59.25, -6.55) -- raises ~ €300M through placement of 4.9M shares at €61.50 per share
-7.2% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics €4.40, -0.34) -- research programs upgrade
-6.4% BALN.SW (Baloise CHF136.70, -9.30) -- H1 earnings
-2.5% AXFO.SS (Axfood SEK263.30, -6.70) -- SEB downgrade
-0.9% PSON.LN (Pearson £8.76, -0.08) -- CEO Andy Bird to retire
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Sequana Medical (SEQUA.BB)
DACHs: AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW), DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung (DFV.GR)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), ESI Group (ESI.FP), Abivax (ABVX.FP), Savencia (SAVE.FP), Innate Pharma (IPH.FP), Forsee Power (FORSE.FP)
Nordics: ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC), Flugger Group (FLUG.B.DC)
Southern Europe: SeSa (SES.IM), Italian Wine Brands (IWB.IM)
UK/Ireland: Renishaw (RSW.LN), THG (THG.LN), Spire Healthcare (SPI.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Brooks MacDonald (BRK.LN), NCC Group (NCC.LN), MJ Gleeson (GLE.LN), M&C Saatchi (SAA.LN), Churchill China (CHH.LN), Keystone Law Group (KEYS.LN), Uniphar (UPR.ID), Glenveagh Properties (GVR.ID)
Data:
Economics:
UK Aug
CPI +6.7% y/y vs consensus +7.0% and prior +6.8%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.7% and prior (0.4%)
Output PPI (0.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.6%) and prior revised (0.7%) from (0.8%)
Germany Aug PPI (12.6%) y/y vs consensus (12.6%) and prior (6.0%)
Sweden Aug Unemployment Rate 7.7% vs consensus 6.8% and prior 6.2%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 23): +$0.37 or +0.41% to $91.57
€-$ +0.0040 or +0.37% to 1.0721
£-$ +0.0002 or +0.02% to 1.2395
€-£ +0.0031 to 0.8649
S&P 500 +0.12%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +3.76%
DAX: +13.34%
CAC: +13.24%
MIB: +23.29%
Stoxx 600: +8.42%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE