Sep 22 ,2023
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower with the UK +0.1% bucking the negative trend. Technology and Consumer Products outperformed. Construction and Utilities lagged.
Attention on mixed Eurozone flash PMI reading with manufacturing weaker, but services activity better than forecast. UK GfK consumer confidence hit a 20-month high in Sept at -21 versus prior -25, which was the strongest level since January 2022 just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Consumers becoming more confident about the economic outlook and their personal finances. Confidence in personal finances over the next year rose one point to -2. UK retail sales remained subdued in August, up 0.4% versus consensus 0.5% and prior 1.1% drop revised from 1.2% fall initially reported. Also, CBI Industrial Trends Orders in September at (18) in line with consensus (18) and prior (15).
Light on the corporate front. Zegona (ZEG.LN) confirmed talks to acquire Vodafone Group's (VOD.LN) Spanish business following press speculations regarding a potential deal.
Amidst subdued earnings releases, out of France, Robertet (RBT.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), Alten (ATE.FP) posted latest numbers; Sanofi (SAN.FP) worsens Q3 prelim estimate of currency impact on business EPS -9.5% to -8.5% vs prior -7.5% to -6.5%. In Greece, Jumbo (BELA.GA) reported H1 earnings. In the UK, Ascential (ASCL.LN), Investec (INVP.LN), and Braemar (BMS.LN) are among other companies from the region to update investors with their latest numbers.
The week ahead sees SNB release its latest quarterly bulletin, ECB's Lagrade before EU Parliament committee, Germany Sep Ifo survey, Oct GfK consumer confidence, France Sep consumer confidence, Sep preliminary CPIs from across the region, SCHOTT Pharma (+SCHP.GR) makes its stock market debut, as well as earnings/updates from ASOS (ASC.LN), Ferguson (FERG.LN) and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS)
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +0.75%, Consumer Products and Services +0.40%, Energy+0.27%, Basic Resources +0.25%, Autos & Parts (0.12%), Chemicals (0.20%), Financial Svcs (0.27%)
Underperformers:
Construct & Mtls (1.00%), Utilities (0.91%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.71%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.66%), Banks (0.63%), Real Estate (0.59%), Travel & Leisure (0.56%), Retail (0.55%), Insurance (0.52%), Telecom (0.45%), Media (0.44%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.31%)
Macro:
EU:
Bulgaria:
Bulgarian nationalists protest against NATO bases, want government out - Reuters
France:
France's services sector contracts sharply in September - Reuters
Germany:
Italy:
UK:
Sterling dips after weaker-than-expected UK retail data - Reuters
British retail sales rebound as shoppers return to high streets - FT
Voters aren't talking about Brexit, says Lib Dem leader - BBC
Tax cuts are virtually impossible, says Jeremy Hunt - Telegraph
Labour plans more powers for economic watchdog - Times
Tories seize on Starmer comments over divergence from EU rules - FT
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+26.1% OPG.LN (OPG Power Ventures £0.10, +0.02) -- FY trading update: FY23 financial results expected in line with market expectations;
+15.4% RQIH.LN (R&Q Insurance Holdings £0.57, +0.08) -- confirms potential sale of Accredited
+12.9% SCHA.NO (Schibsted NOK247.70, +28.30) -- takeover proposal for Adevinta from consortium led by Permira and Blackstone
+10.8% MTC.LN (Mothercare £0.05, -0.00) -- FY earnings
+6.0% ASCL.LN (Ascential £2.02, +0.12) -- H1 earnings
+5.8% BIOG.B.SS (BioGaia SEK101.10, +5.50) -- Handelsbanken upgrade
+5.2% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK17.68, +0.88) -- first patient recruited in Phase 2a trial of single agent BI-1808 for the treatment of advanced malignancies
+4.5% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €29.44, +1.26) -- CMA decision on new Microsoft/Activision deal
+4.0% BELA.GA (Jumbo €26.38, +1.02) -- H1 earnings
+3.2% RAT.LN (Rathbones Group £18.06, +0.56) -- resumed buy at Peel Hunt
+3.0% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.85, +0.03) -- contract
+2.8% SRS.IM (Saras €1.43, +0.04) -- Mediobanca upgrade
+2.7% MDF.SM (Duro Felguera €0.65, +0.02) -- sale of 60% of Epicom S.A. for €5.3M
+2.0% ERA.FP (Eramet €71.65, +1.40) -- completes sale of its Norwegian subsidiary Eramet Titanium & Iron to Ineos Enterprises for $245M
+2.0% JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich €29.04, +0.56) -- initiated overweight at Barclays
+1.5% KER.FP (Kering €460.45, +6.85) -- shares higher; likely due to a Reuters report stating that new Gucci Director, Sabato de Sarno is showcasing his first collection
Notable Decliners
-16.8% S30.FP (Solutions 30 €2.20, -0.44) -- H1 earnings
-9.7% SERI.IM (Seri Industrial €3.68, -0.40) -- H1 earnings
-3.0% HOT.GR (Hochtief €95.55, -3.00) -- Societe Generale downgrade
-2.0% STERV.FH (Stora Enso €11.48, -0.23) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-2.0% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.03, -0.00) -- may require additional funding in Nov
-1.9% GMAA.LN (Gama Aviation £0.53, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-1.9% ATE.FP (Alten €126.20, -2.50) -- H1 earnings
-1.8% ITV.LN (ITV £0.73, -0.01) -- acquires plant-based meat business THIS
-1.6% PHNX.LN (Phoenix Group Holdings £5.27, -0.09) --
Phoenix Group acquires 5% stake in holding company of Hambro Perks; terms undisclosed - FT
JPMorgan downgrade
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
France: Aelis Farma (AELIS.FP), Carmat (ALCAR.FP)
UK: Alphawave IP Group (AWE.LN), Wilmington (WIL.LN), IQGeo Group (IQG.LN), Real Estate Investors (RLE.LN)
CMD/events: TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) Energy Outlook, Pharming Group (PHARM.NA) EGM to elect chairman, Sage Group (SGE.LN) Innovation and Product webinar, CRH (CRH.LN) investor presentation to mark the transition of its primary listing to the NYSE
Data:
Economics:
Sep Flash Manufacturing PMI
France 43.6 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 46.0
Germany 39.8 vs consensus 39.5 and prior 39.1
Eurozone 43.4 vs consensus 44 and prior 43.5
UK 46.8 vs consensus 43.0 and prior 43.0
Sep Flash Services PMI
France 43.9 vs consensus 46.0 and prior 46.0
Germany 49.8 vs consensus 47.2 and prior 47.3
Eurozone 48.4 vs consensus 47.7 and prior 47.9
UK 47.2 vs consensus 49.2 and prior 49.5
UK Aug Retail Sales (1.4%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior revised (3.1%) from (3.2%); +0.4% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised (1.1%) from (1.2%)
Netherlands Q2 GDP (0.2%) y/y vs preliminary (0.3%); (0.2%) q/q vs preliminary (0.3%)
Spain Q2 GDP +2.2% y/y vs preliminary +1.8%; +0.5% q/q vs preliminary +0.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 23): +$0.77 or +0.86% to $90.40
€-$ (0.0000) or (0.00%) to 1.0661
£-$ (0.0032) or (0.26%) to 1.2264
€-£ +0.0023 to 0.8694
S&P 500 +0.59%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.12%
DAX: +11.73%
CAC: +10.98%
MIB: +20.54%
Stoxx 600: +6.68%
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