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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.34% to 7515.38, DAX +0.75% to 16656.44, CAC40 +0.66% to 7435.99, STOXX 600 +0.52% to 470.06

Dec 06 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended the session higher. In sectors, travel/leisure and auto/parts outperform, whilst energy the outsized laggard.

    • Sentiment broadly supported by further drop in bond yields following soft US labor data, which provided further support to soft landing, disinflation and peak Fed narratives that have been a key component of the risk rally. However, there have also been a pickup in discussion about potential dot plot pushback against ~125 bp+ of Fed rate cuts priced in for 2024. Eurozone money market pricing in 150 bps of ECB rate cuts next year after yesterday's Schnabel comments and weak data. ECB hawk Kazimir said rate cut in Q1 2024 "science fiction".

    • Attention today on EU plans to include a debt-reduction target as part of its fiscal reforms. The proposal envisages countries cutting debt as a proportion of GDP by an average of 1% a year over an adjustment period while it exceeds 90% of GDP. EU source said member states would also need a fiscal buffer of 1.5% of GDP below the EU's deficit threshold of 3%. The plan will be considered at a summit later this week. It is more demanding than the Commission proposal while leaving flexibility to finance green transition and support military spending. EU finance ministers are pushing to reach a solution before 1-Jan when former fiscal rules come back into. France and Germany have been pushing for a compromise, but Italy said it would not back rules it cannot meet, Reuters reports. Germany backs high-debt countries to cut debt every year by at least 1%, but Italy said overly strict adjustment would undermine growth and worsen medium-term debt trends.

    • Macro data on the calendar included Germany Oct Factory Orders (3.7%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.2%; Germany Nov construction PMI missed and below prior at 36.2 vs consensus 39.0 and prior 38.3, along with UK reading 45.5 vs consensus 46.3 and prior 45.6. Eurozone Oct retail sales +0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised (0.1%) from (0.3%), equating to (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.1%) and prior (2.9%).

    • In earnings news, in the DACHs region, Clariant (CLN.SW) announced it will shut its sunliquid bioethanol plant in Romania, creating a cash impact for FY23 and FY24. It also cut FY23 EBITDA guidance to CHF 570-600M vs prior guidance of CHF 650-700M and FactSet CHF655.86M. Ascom Holding (ASCN.SW) announced it is now expecting mid-single digit revenue growth at constant currencies for the FY23 vs prior Revenue growth of around 10% at current currencies. In France, Airbus (AIR.FP) reported November gross orders of 113 aircraft and deliveries of 64 aircraft. In Nordics, Clas Ohlson (CLA.B.SS), BlueNord (BNOR.NO), Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Bufab (BUFAB.SS) and Alimak Group (ALIG.SS) updated investors with their latest numbers. In Belgium, Sipef (SIP.BB) published its estimated impact of the eruption of the Mount Ulawun volcano in Papua New Guinea, indicating that the group's projected recurring annual result in 2023 will continue to fluctuate between $65-75M. Perhaps it will be in the middle of the fork rather than at the top. Moreover, the company clarified that the total financial impact on 2024 profit, after tax, would be a decrease of a maximum of $14.7M. In the UK, British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), Weir Group (WEIR.LN), Redde Northgate (REDD.LN), Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), TUI Group (TUI.LN) and Serica Energy (SQZ.LN) are among other companies from the region to update investors with their latest numbers.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Germany Oct industrial production, Italy Oct industrial production, retail sales, Eurozone Q3 final GDP, France Oct trade balance and UK Nov house price index - Halifax.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Travel & Leisure +2.33%, Autos & Parts +2.20%, Basic Resources +1.57%, Real Estate+1.30%, Financial Svcs +1.29%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.29%, Construct & Mtls +1.14%, Banks +1.06%, Technology +1.05%, Chemicals +0.97%, Insurance +0.94%, Utilities +0.83%, Telecom +0.64%

      • Underperformers

        • Oil & Gas (0.89%), Food & Beverage (0.17%), Health Care (0.15%), Retail +0.16%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.17%, Media +0.40%

    • Macro:

      • Central banks

        • Investors bet on rapid ECB rate cuts as economic outlook darkens -- FT

        • BOE Says Far Fewer UK Households Will Struggle With Their Debts -- Bloomberg

      • EU

        • AI: EU holds crunch talks on landmark regulation -- DW

      • UK

        • UK construction activity contracts for third month in a row -- FT

      • Germany

        • Germany's budget crisis: No clear way forward after coalition misses deadline-- Politico

      • Italy:

        • Italy tells China it is leaving Belt and Road Initiative -- Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +31.9% TEG.LN (Ten Entertainment Group £4.08, +0.99) -- Neon Buyer Limited reaches agreement with Ten Entertainment Group for takeover offer at £287M

        • +25.8% WEN.LN (Wentworth Resources £0.31, +0.06) -- updates on offer from Maurel & Prom

        • +15.4% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK143.70, +20.10) -- Q2 earnings

        • +13.1% IKA.LN (Ilika Plc £0.52, +0.06) -- reaches 2023 intermediate technology development target of lithium-ion energy density parity

        • +10.2% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF65.40, +6.35) -- resumed buy at Stifel

        • +9.0% PAG.LN (Paragon Banking Group £5.34, +0.44) -- FY earnings; £50.0M share buyback

        • +7.8% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €129.20, +9.80) -- resumed buy at Stifel

        • +7.5% LIKE.LN (Likewise Group £0.18, +0.01) -- trading update

        • +7.2% ORP.FP (Orpea €0.01, -0.00) -- launch of a share capital increase

        • +6.4% BHG.SS (BHG Group SEK12.91, +0.80) -- holder EQT has sold its entire remaining holding of 21.9M shares

        • +6.2% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €82.68, +5.06) -- Metzler Capital Markets upgrade

        • +5.8% REDD.LN (Redde Northgate £3.81, +0.21) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.8% SKIS.B.SS (SkiStar SEK118.70, +5.40) -- Nordea upgrade

        • +4.6% BUFAB.SS (Bufab SEK332.60, +14.80) -- CMD update

        • +4.3% MIRI.LN (Mirriad Advertising £0.02, -0.00) -- US and Latin America update

        • +4.3% BCG.LN (Baltic Classifieds Group £2.13, +0.09) -- H1 earnings

        • +4.0% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK10.47, +0.41) -- Nov traffic

        • +3.2% SKF.B.SS (SKF SEK199.70, +6.30) -- BNP Paribas Exane ugrade

        • +2.5% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £6.12, +0.15) -- JPMorgan upgrade

        • +2.3% KSB.GR (KSB €670.00, +15.00) -- added to SDAX

        • +2.2% WEIR.LN (Weir Group £19.53, +0.41) -- CMD update

        • +1.8% SAX.GR (Ströer €55.50, +0.95) -- JPMorgan upgrade

      • Notable Decliners

        • -13.0% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €139.40, -21.10) -- Phase III trial results for evobrutinib in relapsing multiple sclerosis did not meet primary endpoint; HSBC downgrade

        • -9.9% CI.SS (Cell Impact SEK0.36, -0.04) -- final outcome of it's rights issue

        • -7.6% BATS.LN (British American Tobacco £22.96, -1.90) -- trading and strategic update

        • -5.3% NCC.B.SS (NCC SEK109.90, -6.10) -- holder Nordstjernan sold 6.0M shares in NCC at SEK 107/share

        • -5.3% MAU.FP (Maurel et Prom €6.04, -0.33) -- Wentworth Resources issues update on offer from Maurel & Prom

        • -4.3% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK0.66, -0.03) -- to expand clinical testing of vididencel as maintenance treatment for AML

        • -4.2% WHA.NA (Wereldhave €14.69, -0.64) -- acquires shopping center Polderplein in Hoofddorp for €74M; completes placement of 3.6M new shares

        • -3.6% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.03, -0.00) -- IATA global market passenger air traffic +31.2% y/y in Oct

        • -3.5% VER.AV (Verbund €86.90, -3.10) -- Societe Generale downgrade

        • -2.8% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK7.70, -0.23) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade

        • -1.9% AG1.AV (Auto1 Group €5.44, -0.10) -- JPMorgan downgrade

        • -1.8% HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz SEK169.72, -3.14) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • DACHs: Zumtobel Group (ZAG.AV)

        • Nordics: Systemair (SYSR.SS)

        • UK: DS Smith (SMDS.LN), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.LN), AJ Bell (AJB.LN)

      • Trading Update: Balfour Beatty (BBY.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Oct Retail Sales (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.1%) and prior (2.9%)

      • Germany

        • Oct Factory Orders m/m (3.7%) vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised to +0.7% from +0.2%

        • Nov Construction PMI 36.2 vs consensus 39.0 and prior 38.3

      • UK Nov Construction PMI 45.5 vs consensus 46.3 and prior 45.6

      • Ireland Nov Unemployment Rate 4.8% vs consensus 5.0% and prior revised 4.7% from 4.8%

      • Greece Q3 GDP +2.1% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior revised +2.6% from +2.7%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (24-Jan): ($2.73) or (3.77%) to $69.59

      • €-$ (0.0011) or (0.10%) to 1.0786

      • £-$ (0.0010) or (0.08%) to 1.2585

      • €-£ (0.0004) to 0.8571

      • S&P 500 (0.04%)

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +0.85%

        • DAX: +19.63%

        • CAC: +14.86%

        • MIB: +28.07%

        • Stoxx 600: +10.63%

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