Dec 11 ,2023
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for a positive start to Tuesday trade. Nikkei futures signaling extension of Monday's gains, Hang Seng futures pointing to rebound while ASX up slightly in initial trade. S&P 500 futures flat following quiet offshore session ahead of November CPI. Asian bond markets steady following Treasury curve bull steepening. Yen pullback continued following latest BOJ news. Bitcoin nursing heavy loss, hitting one-week low. Muted price action in crude, while gold extended retreat to three-week low.
US November CPI the focus today with consensus looking for uptick in in core inflation and unchanged headline read. Economists broadly expect data to be supportive of disinflation narrative. Markets see 2024 year-end median fed funds rate of ~4.30% with cuts starting in May, up from recent low of ~4.05% following stronger-than-expected November payrolls data. Market's 2024 rate outlook still more dovish than expected SEP median of 5.1% at Wednesday's Fed meeting.
China Central Economic Work Conference reportedly expected to conclude today. With source reports noting China government advisers support 2024 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.5%, markets continue to look for stronger stimulus, underpinned by higher fiscal deficit target and ramp in local government special bond issuance. Politburo meeting takeaways indicated more optimism for meaningful fiscal expansion, while reaffirming perceptions of limited scope for monetary easing.
Markets processing latest twist in BOJ normalization developments after Bloomberg sources noted policymakers see little need to scrap negative rate policy at next week's meeting. Recent comments from Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino fueled speculation of near-term NIRP exit, but subsequent reports have downplayed significance of their remarks. Consensus still looking for policy change around April with BOJ officials awaiting evidence of sustained wage growth.
Pre-open Company News:
W05.SP -- Wing Tai Holdings subsidiary to acquire 11-27 Tavistock Place, Melbourne for total consideration of A$28M
3045.TT -- Taiwan Mobile reports November EPS NT$0.33; StreetAccount notes year-ago figure was NT$0.31
600048.CH -- Poly Developments & Holdings Group's controlling shareholder to purchase CNY250-500M shares at up to CNY15.19/share within 12 months
300124.CH -- Shenzhen Inovance Technology largest holder Huichuan Investment completes CNY40-60M share purchase announced on 26-Oct
884.HK -- CIFI Holdings (Group) reports November contracted sales CNY3.83B
500209.IN -- Infosys CFO Nilanjan Roy to resign, effective 31-Mar-24
4904.TT -- Far EasTone Telecommunications reports November revenue NT$8.85B, +11.0% y/y
CENTEL.TB -- Central Plaza Hotel Public initiated buy at Maybank Investment Bank
2331.HK -- Li Ning announce share repurchase plan; plans to repurchase up to HK$3B of company shares
542649.IN -- Rail Vikas Nigam wins bid for Indore Metro Rail project for INR5.43B
6752.JP -- Panasonic Energy signs agreement to purchase next-generation nano-composite silicon anode material for EV lithium-ion batteries from Sila Nanotechnologies
6128.HK -- Graphex Group completes 109.4M-share placement, announced on 27-Nov
Ministry of Ports, Shipping & Waterways reports Apr-Nov traffic at major ports 500.8Mt, +5.4% y/y
772.HK -- China Literature proposes up to CNY1.00B on-market share buyback to run for 12 months
551.HK -- Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) reports November revenue $633.7M, (3.6%) y/y
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: M2 NSA Y/Y; consensus
08:00 CST: New Yuan Loans; consensus
08:00 CST: Loan Growth Y/Y; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Domestic CGPI NSA Y/Y; consensus
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: NAB Business Confidence; consensus
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 24): +$4.80 or +0.24% to $1998.50
WTI Crude (Jan 24): +$0.08 or +0.11% to $71.40
$-¥: +1.21 or +0.83% to 146.1510
$-KRW: (3.16) or (0.24%) to 1314.6400
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.21%) to 0.6564
$-INR: (0.07) or (0.09%) to 83.3434
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.14% to 7.1734
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