Dec 13 ,2023
Synopsis:
European markets ended mostly mixed. Italy and UK firmer. Chemicals, healthcare and utilities the best performers whilst telecom, autos/parts and retail the main laggards.
Focus on Fed policy decision. Dovish rate outlook set to be tested by Fed's updated SEP with markets still betting on ~100 bp of rate cuts next year following softer-than-expected US core CPI.
In politics, German government reached an agreement on 2024 budget to plug €17B hole, after weeks of negotiations whilst UK PM Sunak's flagship legislation on handling of illegal immigration passed first commons vote.
On the macro-calendar, UK monthly activity data for October showed a deeper-than-expected contraction with GDP down (0.3%) versus forecast for a (0.1%) drop and +0.2% growth in September. Oct Industrial Production growth also decelerating to +0.4% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior +1.5% whilst trade deficit wider-than-expected at £17.03B versus consensus £14.3B and prior £14.29B due to +8.2% increase in imports, while exports up +1.2%. Oct Construction Output recorded at +1.1% y/y vs consensus +1.2% and prior +2.8%. Overall, data reflects economy struggling into Q4 as prior rate hikes weigh on activity. Eurozone Oct industrial production slows down faster than forecast (6.6%) y/y vs consensus (4.6%).
On the corporate front, Inditex (ITX.SM) reported 9M earnings and issued FY23 guidance indicating that it expects FY2023 gross margin of around 75 bps higher than in FY2022 vs prior guidance of stable gross margin (+/-50bps). In Nordics, Storebrand (STB.NO) presented the group's strategic direction and financial ambitions towards 2025 in connection with today's CMD, targeting ROE of 14%. Also, DFDS (DFDS.DC) presented its updated strategy and financial ambitions for 2024-2026, aiming at ROIC increase to at least 10% by 2026 from the current level of around 8%. Out of the UK, Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP.LN) and Cohort (CHRT.LN) and Bushveld Minerals (BMN.LN) are among other companies from the region to update investors with their latest numbers. Elsewhere, Dalata Hotel Group (DHG.ID) issued a trading update and said to anticipate adjusted EBITDA for the year in excess of €220M vs FactSet €218M whilst Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV ) reported Nov Group total passenger traffic +13.8% to ~2.67M.
On the M&A news flow, Vertex has commenced a public tender offer for 100% of the shares of Pagero (PAGERO.SS) at a price of SEK36 in cash per share, equivalent to a total tender value of $555M. Heather Global plc (Bidco), HeadFirst Global B.V. reached agreement on the terms of a recommended offer for Impellam (IPEL.LN) at 557.2 pence in cash and392.8 pence in principal amount of loan notes. Also, EQS Group (EQS.GR) boards recommended accepting the public takeover offer by Thoma Bravo at €40/share in cash whilst SII ( SII.FP) received a €70/share buyout offer from group including chairman, CEO.
In rumoured deals, press reports suggest Italy's government exploring options for taking control of Telecom (TIT.IM) Sparkle business, International Distributions Services (IDS.LN) may offer up to €500M (£429.6M) for Packeta whilst Fresenius Medical Care pushed back final bids deadline for Cura Group until next week.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, Spain Nov final CPI, Switzerland Nov PPI and UK Nov house price balance - RICS. Of note, tomorrow focus on central banks policy statements: SNB at 3:30 ET, followed by BOE at 7:00 ET, ECB (8:15 ET) and press conference (8:45 ET).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Chemicals +1.14%, Health Care +0.80%, Utilities +0.72%, Real Estate+0.49%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.07%, Technology (0.02%), Construct & Mtls (0.03%)
Underperformers
Telecom (1.29%), Autos & Parts (0.89%), Retail (0.86%), Basic Resources (0.74%), Travel & Leisure (0.73%), Food & Beverage (0.44%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.33%), Media (0.32%), Banks (0.35%), Insurance (0.20%), Oil & Gas (0.20%), Financial Svcs (0.06%), Construct & Mtls (0.07%)
Macro:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+70.0% PAGERO.SS (Pagero Group SEK35.60, +14.70) -- Vertex, Inc (VERX) offers SEK36/share in cash for Pagero Group
+36.9% IPEL.LN (Impellam Group £8.70, +2.40) -- Heather Global plc (Bidco), HeadFirst Global B.V. reach agreement on the terms of a recommended offer for Impellam
+31.4% SII.FP (SII SA €69.30, +16.60) -- receives €70/share buyout offer from group including chairman, CEO
+27.9% EAS2P.NA (Ease2pay €0.73, +0.16) -- expects a positive EBITDA for 2024
+14.4% GIGA.NO (Gigante Salmon NOK8.26, +1.08) -- initiated buy at Sparebank 1 Markets
+13.4% AGY.LN (Allergy Therapeutics £0.02, -0.00) -- positive primary and secondary endpoints of G306 pivotal Phase III trial investigating Grass MATA MPL are highly consistent
+13.3% LLQ.SW (Lalique Group CHF31.40, +4.40) -- holder Müller Handels AG Schweiz to raise stake in the company to 25.0% via purchase of shares from chairman
+12.8% EGTX.SS (Egetis Therapeutics SEK4.89, +0.61) -- update on the expanded access program for tiratricol (Emcitate) in the USA
+9.5% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.22, +0.02) -- £16.8M RSV contract; reports revenue, EBITDA ahead of previous market expectations
+9.1% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK250.20, +22.00) -- Eisai to launch LEQEMBI for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease in Japan
+8.9% SYNT.SS (SyntheticMR SEK23.50, +2.00) -- order
+5.5% AKE.FP (Arkema €95.64, +5.06) -- UBS upgrade
+5.1% ENT.LN (Entain £8.39, +0.41) -- CEO to step down
+5.0% ASA.NO (Atlantic Sapphire NOK1.50, +0.07) -- Sparebank 1 Markets upgrade
+4.4% BAS.GR (BASF SE €47.30, +2.02) -- UBS upgrade
+3.7% BETCO.SS (Better Collective SEK244.50, +8.50) -- initiated buy at Jefferies
+3.6% PAG.LN (Paragon Banking Group £5.87, +0.21) -- RBC Capital Markets upgrade
+3.5% FAN.LN (Volution Group £4.20, +0.14) -- trading update
+3.1% DHG.ID (Dalata Hotel Group €4.38, +0.14) -- trading update
+2.6% VLS.LN (Velocys £0.00, -0.00) -- shareholders to vote on offer from Madison Bidco on 8-Jan
+2.0% BOAT.SS (Nimbus Group SEK23.85, +0.45) -- starts sea trials of electrical concept boa
Notable Decliners
-27.1% TOBII.SS (Tobii SEK5.76, -2.06) -- to launch SEK300M rights issue in 1Q24 to fund acquisition of AutoSense business from Xperi
-11.9% AVCT.LN (Avacta Group £1.27, -0.16) -- presents ALS-6000-101 Phase 1a three-weekly dose escalation safety study data
-10.7% REVB.LN (Revolution Beauty Group £0.34, -0.04) -- new CFO
-9.4% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK29.50, -3.15) -- guides on 2024, 2027
-9.2% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK6.71, -0.68) -- HyCC cancels previously announced purchase order for 40 MW electrolyser, cites market conditions and client postponing project till 2028; initiated underperform at Santander
-7.7% GGP.LN (Greatland Gold £0.09, -0.01) -- drilling and geophysical exploration program results
-6.4% WEIR.LN (Weir Group £18.30, -1.23) -- BofA downgrade
-6.3% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £5.60, -0.38) -- SSA Investments Sarl places ~27.8M B&M European Value Retail shares priced at 582.5/sh via Goldman Sachs and Rothschild -- Bloomberg, citing terms
-4.3% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.02, -0.00) -- to restructure head office
-4.2% STB.NO (Storebrand NOK91.94, -4.00) -- CMD update
-3.9% ENOG.LN (Energean £9.58, -0.38) -- holder Kerogen sold 4.4M ordinary shares in the company at 935p/share
-3.6% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.07, -0.04) -- operational & corporate update
-3.5% PUUILO.FH (Puuilo €8.42, -0.31) -- Q3 earnings
-3.2% ORA.FP (Orange €11.01, -0.36) -- EU's deadline to rule on Orange's acquisition of MasMovil extended
-3.1% METSO.FH (Metso Corp. €8.46, -0.27) -- BofA downgrade
-2.8% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF1.90, -0.05) -- successful completion of its comprehensive financing plan; in total, ~ €2.25B raised
-2.0% REP.SM (Repsol €13.22, -0.27) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-1.9% DNO.NO (DNO ASA NOK9.52, -0.19) -- successful completion of the second appraisal well on the Bergknapp/Åre discoveries in license PL836S
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: EVN (EVN.AV), MVV Energie (MVV1.GR)
France: Focus Entertainment (ALFOC.FP), Haffner Energy (ALHAF.FP)
Nordics: Fluegger Group (FLUG.B.DC)
UK: Integrafin Holdings (IHP.LN), Currys (CURY.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Oct Industrial Production (6.6%) y/y vs cons (4.6%) and prior revised (6.8%) from (6.9%); (0.7%) m/m vs cons (0.3%) and prior revised to (1.0%) from (1.1%)
UK Oct
Construction Output +1.1% y/y vs cons +1.2% and prior +2.8%
Visible Trade Balance (£17.03B) vs cons (£14.3B) and prior (£14.29B)
Industrial Production +0.4% y/y vs cons +1.1% and prior +1.5%; (0.8%) m/m vs cons (0.1%) and prior 0.0%
Manufacturing Production +0.8% y/y vs cons +1.9% and prior +3.0%; (1.1%) m/m vs cons 0.0% and prior +0.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (24-Jan): +$0.56 or +0.82% to $69.17
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0787
£-$ (0.0036) or (0.29%) to 1.2527
€-£ +0.0019 to 0.8611
S&P 500 +0.17%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +1.30%
DAX: +20.41%
CAC: +16.33%
MIB: +27.82%
Stoxx 600: +11.20%
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