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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.73%), Hang Seng +1.07%, Shanghai Composite (0.33%) as of 03:10 ET

Dec 14 ,2023

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mostly higher Thursday as the Fed decision and its dovish comments fueled risk appetite. Hong Kong led Greater China higher although several mainland benchmarks dipped. Strong gains elsewhere ex Japan with Australia, South Korea and the Philippines leading the gainers. India's Sensex and Nifty benchmarks significantly higher to reach fresh record highs. US futures higher, European markets opened substantially higher. Dollar weaker although DXY held above 102; almost all Asia currencies stronger. Treasury yields lower at the long end with 10Y below 4.0%, Asia sovereign yields dipped to multi-month lows, Australia and New Zealand 10Y yield 20 bps lower. Crude blends consolidated overnight gains, precious metals surging, industrial metals also well bid.

    • Asia stocks, bonds and currencies all rallied Thursday in the wake of the Fed's decision to hold rates steady and strong indication it would cut rates next year. Treasury yields dipped sharply as Chair Powell spoke, taking the US dollar down with it and sending Asia currencies higher across the board. This supported the equity rally in Asia-ex Thursday with the cyclical Australian ASX and growth-orientated India exchanges benefitting the most. Japan was the outlier: although the yen also strengthened this negatively impacted exporters that led the Topix to underperform the Nikkei notably with both finishing in the red.

    • The Fed's dovish tilt now focuses attention on rate divergence between Asia and the US with many central banks in the region committed to a data-dependent approach amid warnings over resurgent inflation, but also with one eye on what the Fed does. Overnight swaps now show the BOJ could abandon its YCC and/or NIRP as early as January although April is still more likely with one economist quoted by Bloomberg saying it is 'now or never' for the BOJ. The BOK said today said it would keep its restrictive stance for a 'considerable' time and the Philippines central bank today kept rates on hold but warned of upside risks to consumer prices.

    • In economic news today, Australian employment growth beat forecasts but the jobless rate rose by more than expected. Japan core machinery orders unexpectedly rose, marking a positive start to Q4. New Zealand Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted, reinforcing a dovish rate outlook there. China yuan loan growth undershot expectations, adding to signs of continued economic weakness in November. India wholesale inflation rose by more than expected and rebounded from a contraction in October.

    • A Country Garden (2007.HK) unit has agreed to sell its 1.8% stake in Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group for CNY3.1B ($428.0M); filing to stock exchange shows company has remitted funds to repay yuan bond. GoTo Group (GOTO.IJ) agreed to its tie-up with ByteDance's TikTok to avoid further market share losses, its CEO said. Alcoa (AA) said the Western Australia government had approached its five-year mine plan for two bauxite mines; shares in Alumina (AWC.AU) suspended pending announcement.

  • Digest:

    • Four of Japan's cabinet ministers resign over fundraising scandal allegations:

      • Consistent with prior leaks, Kyodo reported four cabinet ministers from the LDP faction embroiled in a political fundraising scandal have submitted their resignations Thursday. With replacements set to be announced later today, Nikkei reported Prime Minister Kishida as decided to appoint Yoshimasa Hayashi as the new chief cabinet secretary, replacing Hirokazu Matsuno. Article noted Hayashi hails from Kishida's faction and has been seen as a potential future prime minister. In other expected placements, former justice minister Ken Saito is set to be named METI minister, replacing Yasutoshi Nishimura. Former regional revitalization minister Tetsushi Sakamoto expected to replace Ichiro Miyashita as agriculture minister. Takeaki Matsumoto is set to return to the post of internal affairs minister, replacing Junji Suzuki. Less certainty over the successor to LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda, who is also set to submit his resignation today. Scrutiny intensifying as Nikkei reported Tokyo prosecutors will launch a criminal investigation into the former Abe faction, and office inspections will commence after obtaining warrants.

    • Bank of Korea to keep restrictive stance, remain watchful on household debt:

      • South Korea's central bank said Thursday it will keep current restrictive stance given still high inflation, will keep close tab on rise in household debt. BOK's monetary report to parliament said inflationary trajectory expected to be higher than previously forecast, will maintain tightening mode for "sufficiently" considerable time until it is assured price rises in line with target level of 2.0%. Said bank's focus remains on prices, will judge whether additional hike is necessary. Said it will consider pace of inflation deceleration, economic downside risks, moves in other major economies before making next decision (Yonhap). November headline inflation rose 3.3% y/y versus October's 3.8%, breaking four-month streak of accelerating inflation, bank also raised inflation forecast to 2.6% in 2025 from 2.4% earlier. Bank also said in report economic recovery likely to be led by exports especially from semiconductors.

    • BOJ policy normalization path clouded by Fed outlook:

      • Nikkei discussed the impact of Fed rate cut expectations on the BOJ's normalization path in the context of dispersion in market views on the timing of the first short-term rate hike. Noted December calls are based on the argument that a virtuous price/wage cycle can be declared without waiting for the results of shunto wage talks, albeit this view comprises a small minority as expectations for BOJ to remain on hold next week are virtually unanimous. Main scenario looks for an end to negative rates in 1H24 when shunto results are known. April calls founded on prospects for 2024 wage hikes to beat this year's 3.58%. However, article noted this timing raises the risk of clashing with Fed rate cuts and BOJ might be unwilling to go against the grain of Fed as well as potentially ECB. This explains forecasts for a BOJ rate hike between January and March. For the sake of consistency, BOJ would hold off until after the shunto results, which makes an exit in 2H24 plausible as well. Story also cited thoughts ending negative rates would mark the beginning of a BOJ tightening cycle, given BOJ stands as the lone central bank with negative rates.

    • Philippines central bank keeps rates steady but gives hawkish commentary:

      • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) left benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% for second consecutive meeting Thursday, but retained its hawkish stance and warned of upside risks to consumer prices. Move largely in line with consensus. Governor Eli Remolona said monetary board of BSP saw need to keep monetary policy settings sufficiently tight to allow previous measures to settle more firmly within bank's 2-4% target range. Remolona warned previously on risks to food prices from El Niño that could persist through H1-24, drive up domestically produced and imported food costs. Peso held on to gains achieved overnight on Fed's dovish comments as hawkish stance by BSP considered strong enough to rule out rate cut anytime soon. BSP previously voiced concerns over impact on peso of rate hikes however recent surge in overseas remittances has supported currency, giving BSP room to hold, according to economists (Bloomberg).

    • Australian jobs growth easily tops forecasts, but unemployment rate unexpectedly rises:

      • Australian employment increased by 61.5K in November, compared to consensus for a 11.5K increase and October's 55.0K gain. Growth driven by 57K surge in full-time positions while part-time jobs rose 4.5K. However, other details were more benign. Surprise rise in participation rate saw unemployment rate climb to 3.9% vs consensus and October's upwardly revised 3.8% (3.7% previously). Underemployment rate also rose and monthly hours worked have settled around levels back in May. Lead indicators more consistent with loosening of labor market with job ads in decline and surge in migration helping to lift labor supply. With unemployment rate now tracking above RBA's year-end forecast of 3.75%, data reinforces market view that cash rate has peaked. Economists share view rate has peaked though acknowledge risk of a February rate hike, contingent in large part on outcome of Q4 CPI in late January and extent of services inflation stickiness.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +41.3% VHT.AU (Volpara Health Technologies): Lunit to acquire Volpara Health Technologies via scheme implementation agreement for A$1.15/share in cash

      • +5.1% GMD.AU (Genesis Minerals): To acquire selected gold deposits from Kin's Cardinia Gold Project for A$53.5M in cash and shares

      • +1.3% 2007.HK (Country Garden Holdings): Subsidiary conditionally agrees to sell 1.79% interest in Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group for CNY3.07B

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -20% ARU.AU (Arafura Rare Earths): Launches A$20M fully underwritten placement and A$10M SPP at A$0.16/share; receives firm commitments for upsized fully underwritten A$25M institutional placement at A$0.16/share

      • -10.5% D03.SP (Del Monte Pacific): Reports Q2 net profit ($8M) vs year-ago $50M

      • -2.0% 6902.JP (DENSO Corp): Offers to sell 256.4M of own shares at ¥2,069.5/share

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan October

        • Core machinery orders +0.7% m/m vs consensus (0.4%) and +1.4% in prior month

      • Australia November

        • Employment +61.5K m/m vs consensus +11.5K and +55.0K in October

          • Unemployment rate 3.9% vs consensus 3.8% and 3.7% in October

          • Participation rate 67.2% vs consensus 66.9% and 67.0% in October

      • New Zealand Q3

        • GDP (0.3%) q/q vs consensus +0.2% and revised +0.5% in Q2

          • GDP (0.6%) y/y vs consensus +0.5% and +1.8% in Q2

      • Singapore Q3

        • Unemployment rate (Final) 2% versus consensus 2% and 2% in prior quarter

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (240.10) or (0.73%) to 32686.25

      • Hang Seng: 173.44 or +1.07% to 16402.19

      • Shanghai Composite: (9.77) or (0.33%) to 2958.99

      • Shenzhen Composite: (10.16) or (0.55%) to 1835.27

      • ASX200: 120.10 or +1.65% to 7377.90

      • KOSPI: 33.52 or +1.34% to 2544.18

      • SENSEX: 1,010.99 or +1.45% to 70595.59

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.96) or (0.68%) to 141.9190

      • $-KRW: +0.96 or +0.07% to 1296.3100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.66% to 0.6706

      • $-INR: +0.14 or +0.17% to 83.3330

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.03%) to 7.1707

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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