Jan 08 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed with pan-European indices closing around session highs after recovering from earlier losses. Norway (1.2%), Portugal (0.7%), Denmark (0.5%) led the underperformers whilst Greece +1.4%, Sweden +0.9% and Germany +0.7% led the outperformers.
In political developments in the UK, PM Sunak plans to tout tax cuts as a key part of revitalizing the Conservative party's prospects ahead of an expected election year, echoing former PM Major's 1992 campaign (FT). Geopolitics also in focus as Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon led Washington to warn of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, container shipping is poised to encounter challenges leading up to the Lunar New Year holiday as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue to restrict capacity (Bloomberg).
From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, Eurozone Sentix Economic Indicator for January posted the third consecutive improvement, meeting expectations at (15.8) which was the highest level since May. Current situation and Expectation also improved, at (22.5) and (8.8) respectively, vs (23.5) and (9.8) prior. Eurozone retail sales was still underwhelming. In the UK, REC reported employers raised pay and recovered some of their appetite for hiring in December. Also German factory orders rose less than expected in November.
In corporate news, Pandora (PNDORA.DC) posted strong preliminary Q4 numbers. Also out of the Nordics, AddLife (ALIF.B.SS) announced to initiate trade union negotiations regarding planned closure of subsidiary Camanio; will report impairment loss on related assets totalling SEK 100M in Q4 of 2023. Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) announced topline results from the COMBINE 3 phase 3a trial of once-weekly IcoSema; trial achieved its primary endpoint.
In the Benelux, Pharming Group (PHARM.NA) expects FY RUCONEST revenues to increase by 10% to ~$227M, vs previous low single digit growth guidance. Argenx (ARGX.BB) guided Q4 VYVGART revenue $374M; FactSet company revenue is $359.1M.
In the UK, Shell (SHEL.LN) released its Q4 trading update and said it expects Q4 adjusted earnings of $6.20B. Plus500 (PLUS.LN) noted FY results significantly ahead of market expectations; EBITDA ~$340M vs FactSet $291.6M.
In the DACH region, Bayer's (BAYN.GR) elinzanetant met all primary and key secondary endpoints in pivotal OASIS 1 and 2 Phase III studies. Fresenius Medical Care (FME.GR) updated on strategic portfolio optimization. On the speculation front, Daimler Truck Holding (DTG.GR) is reportedly unlikely to achieve its 2025 target of 15% reduction in operating costs, investment and R&D expenditures.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +1.23%, Retail +1.21%, Autos & Parts +1.12%, Travel & Leisure +0.80%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.74%, Construct & Mtls +0.67%, Financial Svcs +0.63%, Media +0.63%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.58%, Food & Beverage +0.51%, Insurance +0.51%, Health Care +0.43%, Real Estate+0.42%,
Underperformers
Oil & Gas (2.55%), Basic Resources (0.57%), Chemicals +0.04%, Utilities +0.08%, Telecom +0.30%, Banks +0.31%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Ship shortage holds up Chinese EV sales in Europe - FT
UK
Ireland
Sinn Féin 30% (+2), Fine Gael 20% (1), Fianna Fáil 17% (2) - Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll
House prices 4.1% y/y, (0.4%) q/q - MyHome.ie Q4 of 2023 Property Report
Taoiseach plays down speculation of early general election - RTE
Belgium
Charles Michel will stand down EU Council President if elected as MEP in the election in June - De Standaard
Italy
Germany
German farmers block major highways with tractors in protest against plans to scrap diesel tax break - euronews
Netherlands
Dutch government to turn on 'pilot light' output at Groningen gas field - Reuters
Greece
PM champions Greece's success in curbing irregular migration - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+29.3% HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma SEK32.62, +7.40) -- prelim Q4 revenue
+21.6% CMCX.LN (CMC Markets £1.34, +0.24) -- raises FY net operating income guidnace
+14.9% B8F.GR (Biofrontera AG €0.54, +0.07) -- announces EU's CHMP has positively assessed the label extension for Ameluz
+9.8% CLBS.LN (Celebrus Technologies £2.36, +0.21) -- contract
+9.5% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €1.17, +0.10) -- updates FY guidance
+7.7% ELK.NO (Elkem NOK22.14, +1.58) -- Sparebank 1 Markets upgrade
+7.4% PLUS.LN (Plus500 £17.83, +1.23) -- FY trading update
+5.7% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €98.98, +5.34) -- UBS upgrade
+5.5% IFCN.SW (Inficon Holding CHF1,232.00, +64.00) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.1% CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings £2.27, +0.11) -- Barclays upgrade
+4.2% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €21.40, +0.86) -- TRATON CEO says turnaround is complete, expects to call a CMD later this year to set new financial targets - DI
+3.8% TEMN.SW (Temenos CHF78.40, +2.86) -- Jefferies upgrade
+3.7% ARGX.BB (argenx €366.10, +13.10) -- issues Q4 guidance
+3.6% ALIF.B.SS (AddLife SEK108.00, +3.80) -- to initiate trade union negotiations regarding planned closure of subsidiary Camanio; will report impairment loss on related assets totalling SEK 100M in Q4 of 2023
+3.5% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK979.80, +33.00) -- prelim Q4 earnings
+3.5% BWY.LN (Bellway £26.98, +0.90) -- Barclays upgrade
+3.3% AMP.IM (Amplifon €31.57, +1.01) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+3.0% NODL.NO (Northern Drilling NOK0.68, +0.02) -- results of mandatory offer
+2.8% LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group £2.51, +0.07) -- Berenberg upgrade
+2.8% NCC.B.SS (NCC SEK126.60, +3.40) -- to construct road and tunnel in Norway for SEK 1.5B
+2.4% ELI.BB (Elia Group €114.20, +2.70) -- Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas Exane upgrades
+2.0% REJL.B.SS (Rejlers SEK125.50, +2.50) -- signs significant framework agreements with Statnett
+1.9% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK122.50, +2.30) -- prelim Q4 revenue
Notable Decliners
-3.9% QTCOM.FH (Qt Group €65.06, -2.64) -- Inderes downgrade
-2.7% GMS.LN (Gulf Marine Services £0.15, -0.00) -- contract
-2.5% GFC.FP (Gecina €106.20, -2.70) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-2.5% COL.SM (Inmobiliaria Colonial SOCIMI €6.18, -0.16) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-1.4% BALCO.SS (Balco Group SEK50.20, -0.70) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings: Games Workshop Group (GAW.LN), Shoe Zone (SHOE.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany
Nov Trade Balance €20.4B vs consensus €17.9B and prior €17.8B
Nov Factory Orders +0.3% m/m vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised (3.8%) from (3.7%)
Switzerland
Nov Retail Sales +0.7% y/y vs consensus 0.0% and prior revised (0.3%) from (0.1%)
Dec CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.4%
Eurozone
Jan Sentix Investor Confidence (15.8) vs consensus (15.5) and prior (16.8)
Dec
Economic Sentiment Indicator 96.4 vs consensus 94.1 and prior revised 94.0 from 93.8
Consumer Confidence (15.0) vs preliminary (15.1)
Services Sentiment Indicator 8.4 vs consensus 5.0 and prior 4.9
Nov Retail Sales (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (1.5%) and prior revised (0.8%) from (1.2%)
Norway Nov Manufacturing Production (0.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.6%
Markets:
€-$ +0.0029 or +0.26% to 1.0974
£-$ +0.0045 or +0.35% to 1.2759
€-£ (0.0007) to 0.8601
S&P 500 +0.53%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.60%)
DAX: (0.27%)
CAC: (1.31%)
MIB: +0.69%
Stoxx 600: (0.21%)
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