Jan 09 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher amidst Asia equities mixed Tuesday with most off their peaks. Japan strongest post yesterday's holiday while Australia closed almost 1% higher. Early strength in Hong Kong dissipated over the morning, mainland benchmarks lower to break to fresh multi-year lows.
US equities finished higher in Monday trading; the Dow ended up despite a big drag from BA. Big tech saw solid gains after sliding last week; NVDA was a standout.
On today's agenda, EU's von der Leyen speech at 13:00CET at Chamber of Commerce Stade for the Elbe-Weser region event. Press conf at 14:00CET on the priorities of the World Economic Forum (15/19-Jan). EU's Ferreira speech and panellist at event organised by weekly newspaper Expresso title "Cohesion and the Future of the EU". UK's parliament sees Opposition debate (topics tba), whilst committee topics include private equity and the retail sector - questions reps of TDR Capital (10:00GMT), future defence aviation capabilities (10:30). World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report is published
In central banks, Danmarks Nationalbank latest quarterly bank lending survey released at 8:00CET. SNB preliminary annual figures. Other events include Atlantic Council hosting event at 14:30GMT with Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs on the outlook for the global economy in 2024 as well as CES 2024. In Norway, NHO's annual conf will deal with leadership change and solutions within green competitiveness, artificial intelligence and digitization and European cooperation. Munich Re (MUV2.GR) will release its report on natural disasters in 2023. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks in Paris at 18:30CET
Macro data releases in Europe included UK Dec LFL retail sales +1.9% vs consensus +2.3% and prior +2.6%; total +1.7% vs prior +2.7%; 2024 looks to be another challenging year for retailers - BRC, Switzerland Dec Unemployment Rate . Also due today, Germany Nov industrial production, France Nov trade balance, Italy/Eurozone Nov unemployment rate 2.2% vs consensus 2.2% and prior 2.1%, Denmark Nov trade balance, Ireland Nov retail sales and industrial production.
In Corporate news, Ryanair (RYA.ID) CEO Michael O'Leary, In an interview with the FT warned that profits will fall and fares will rise due to manufacturing issues at Boeing and Airbus. In Italy, Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) reported preliminary FY earnings and confirmed that it is very confident that it'll achieve the healthy growth estimated for 2024. In Norway, PGS ASA (PGS.NO) and TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. (TGS.NO) both reported preliminary Q4 earnings. Also reporting today is Games Workshop Group (GAW.LN), Shoe Zone (SHOE.LN), Sika (SIKA.SW), B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN), Matas (MATAS.DC) and Cirata (CRTA.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
TECN.SW (Tecan Group) -- reports preliminary FY reported sales revenue CHF1.07B, (6.1%) y/y; underlying sales +6.3%y/y in local currencies
Southern Europe
BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli) -- reports preliminary FY sales €1.14B vs FactSet €1.13B
BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues) -- informs about Bank Millennium's estimated Q4 provisions against legal risk related to FX mortgage loans portfolio
Nordics
PGS.NO (PGS ASA) -- reports prelim Q4 revenue $227M vs FactSet $212.3M
EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices) -- provides vessel activity and multi-client sales update for Q4-23: expects to record ~$0.8M in multi-client revenues
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue $205M vs FactSet $278M
KID.NO (Kid ASA) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue NOK1.25B vs FactSet NOK1.18B
Benelux
MDXH.BB (MDxHealth) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue $19.4M vs FactSet $18.8M
France
TRI.FP (Trigano) -- reports Q1 sales €931.6M, +19% vs year-ago €782.3M
ALVU.FP (Vente-Unique.com) -- reports FY net income €7.0M vs year-ago €2.7M
UK
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- Ryanair warns profits will fall and fares will rise due to manufacturing issues at Boeing and Airbus - FT
ICEAIR.IR (Icelandair Group) -- reports December traffic +17.0% y/y
Also due to report today
Earnings: Games Workshop Group (GAW.LN), Shoe Zone (SHOE.LN)
Trading Update: Sika (SIKA.SW), B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN), Matas (MATAS.DC), Cirata (CRTA.LN)
M&A
CYTK (Cytokinetics) -- reportedly nearing agreement to be acquired by Novartis -- media report
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- ABB to acquire Canadian company Real Tech; terms not disclosed
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- Lufthansa offers concessions to address competition concerns over its investment in ITA Airways - Bloomberg
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- acquires I&O Research in the Netherlands; terms undisclosed
VLS.LN (Velocys) -- shareholders approve the implementation of the Scheme in connection with Madison Bidco acquisition
LSS.FP (Lectra) -- announces acquisition of 50.3% stake in Launchmetrics for ~$85M
Healthcare
ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma) -- announces directed issue and private placement for gross proceeds of DKK 1.45B
TNG.FP (Transgene) -- and NEC extend their collaboration to continue joint clinical development of Neoantigen cancer vaccine TG4050
Other
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Delta Air Lines near widebody order from Airbus - Reuters
STLA.IM (Stellantis) -- partnering with Ample on modular battery swapping technology
IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies) -- provides litigation update, notes court-appointed expert submits opinion in Qimonda legal dispute
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- in the process of cutting of 5,000 jobs - Sky News
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded contract to upgrade existing Mk 45 Mod 2 naval gun systems for Australian Navy frigates
SW.FP (Sodexo) -- appoints Sébastien de Tramasure as Group CFO; Marc Rolland will continue to act as Group CFO until 1-May-24, before taking on new role which will be announced in due time
TEP.FP (Teleperformance) -- announces governance organization; Majorel's Mackenbrock to depart in May 2024
AM.FP (Dassault Aviation) -- announces entry into force of final tranche of 18 Rafale for Indonesia
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- announces holders of the €500M equity-linked bonds due 2029 granted the right, effective from 26-Jan-24, to convert the bonds into ordinary shares
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- MTP/Camfin increase stake in Pirelli to 20.6% from 14%
SCYR.SM (Sacyr Vallehermoso) -- to implement scrip dividend scheme
ECMPA.NA (Eurocommercial Properties) -- declares an interim dividend for the financial year ended on 31-Dec-23 of €0.64 in cash per share
December Dodge Momentum Index +2.8% q/q
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DWS.GR (DWS Group) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
TELIA.SS (Telia Co.) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- to market perform from underperform at Bernstein
BSL.GR (Basler) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
INRN.SW (Interroll Holding) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings) -- to buy from underperform at Jefferies
EUROB.GA (Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
TPEIR.GA (Piraeus Financial Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Danone (BN.FP) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
RKT.LN (Reckitt) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SRG.IM (Snam) -- to buy from hold at Societe Generale
Downgrades
KOS.LN (Kosmos Energy) -- to hold from add at Peel Hunt
SOLB.BB (Solvay) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- Svenska Cellulosa short-term recommendation downgraded to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
SHB.A.SS (Svenska Handelsbanken) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
UTDI.GR (United Internet) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding) -- to add from buy at Baader Helvea (8-Jan, timing uncertain)
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- to market perform from outperform at TD Cowen
BAS.GR (BASF SE) -- to underperform from market perform at Bernstein
WAC.GR (Wacker Neuson) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
BPOST.BB (Bpost) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
EBUS.NA (Ebusco Holding) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
JDEP.NA (JDE Peet's) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
LOTB.BB (Lotus Bakeries) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
NESN.SW (Nestle) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor) -- to sell from hold at Arctic Securities
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SIE.GR (Siemens AG) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations
ROR.LN (Rotork) -- hold at HSBC
DARK.LN (Darktrace) -- neutral at UBS
NEX.FP (Nexans) -- buy at Berenberg
JYSK.DC (Jyske Bank) -- overweight at Barclays
CHEMM.DC (ChemoMetec) -- buy at DnB Markets
FUR.NA (Furgo) -- buy at Jefferies
LSS.FP (Lectra) -- reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei +1.16% to 33763.18
Hang Seng +0.26% to 16266.42
Shanghai Composite +0.23% to 2894.28
S&P futures (4.3) vs prior close of 4801.3
€-$ +0.0002 or +0.02% to 1.0952
$-¥ (0.15) or (0.11%) to 144.08
€-¥ (0.17) or (0.11%) to 157.78
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