Jan 30 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher whilst Asian equities weakening as the day progresses.
Markets still balancing competing narratives in a big macro week (Fed and BoE). Risk sentiment continue to be underpinned by soft landing hopes, disinflation momentum and still-dovish rate forecasts. Surprise reduction in US Treasury's Q1 borrowing estimates also helped dampen bond supply concerns. At the same time, there has been growing focus on geopolitical tensions, US political and policy uncertainty, China stimulus skepticism and financial stability risks.
On today's agenda, informal meeting of EU defence ministers (through Wed). France's President Macron visits Sweden (through Wed). EU's Vestager participates in the EU-US Trade & Technology Council's joint roundtable, also at the EP and Council joint public hearing for hosting the seat of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA) whilst EU's Simson keynote speech at the joint EFTA-ESA Conf on Carbon Capture and Storage in EEA. In UK, the Media Bill has its remaining stages, whilst committee topics include How sustainable is our national debt? (15:00GMT, Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Adviser at Allianz). In Germany, the Weltmarktführer 2024 conf gets underway (thru Thu), several wind energy industry assns. hold press conf. which will look back on the past year and industry's future direction and world's largest toy fair in Nuremberg.
In central banks, ECB's Lane speech at 10:00CET at conf organised by Croatian National Bank. Bundesbank's Nagel discussion at 16:30CET at Forum New Economy Berlin, Balz speech at 17:40 at Afore Consulting's 8th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conf, others speakers include EU's McGuinness. Hungary Central Bank interest rate decision 14:00CET and Latvia Central Bank's Head of the Monetary Policy Dept Rutkaste participates in a Delfi discussion.
European macroeconomic data today: France Dec Consumer Spending (already out) +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised +0.6% from +0.7% and France Q4 Preliminary GDP (already out) +0.7% y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.6%. Also due today, Switzerland Jan KOF leading indicators, Dec trade balance, Austria Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec PPI, Spain Q4 preliminary GDP, Jan preliminary CPI, Italy Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec PPI, UK Dec mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Jan shop price index - BRC, Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP, Jan economic/industrial sentiment, Greece Dec PPI, Belgium Jan CPI, Ireland Dec PPI..
In earnings news, in DACHs Bucher Industries (BUCN.SW) and Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR) reported FY numbers. In France, Eiffage's APPR issued Q4 consolidated revenue ex construction of €708.0M vs year-ago €667.6M. In Nordics, FLSmidth & Co (FLS.DC), NCC (NCC.B.SS), and Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS) reported Q4 update with the latter guiding 2024 Organic growth of end-user service revenue +3-4%. In Spain, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM) issued Q4 earnings ahead of consensus and proposes a dividend of €0.39/share.
In other corporate developments, Renault Group (RNO.FP) decides to cancel Ampere's IPO and confirms its EV and software strategy; decision has no impact on the financial guidance and its capital allocation strategy.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK
France
Switzerland
SNB's Jordan Says Swiss Inflation Faster But Below 2% - Swissinfo (Bloomberg)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
BUCN.SW (Bucher Industries) -- reports FY net sales CHF3.58B vs FactSet CHF3.63B
WEW.GR (Westwing Group) -- SE reports Q4 GMV of €147M vs. €142M year ago; confirms updated FY 2023 guidance
SOW.GR (Software reports) -- Q4 EBIT €12.1M vs year-ago €38.2M
HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd) -- reports prelim FY EBIT €2.50B vs FactSet €2.57B
Nordics
AMBU.B.DC (Ambu) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK0.35 vs FactSet DKK0.30
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- announces prelim Q4 results; Q4 revenue DKK 6.0B vs FactSet DKK 5.76B
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK135.00 vs FactSet SEK1.34; guides 2024 Organic growth of end-user service revenue +3-4%
ARJO.B.SS (Arjo) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK0.67 vs FactSet SEK0.56
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Q4 comparable EPS €0.31 vs FactSet €0.29; cuts divi by ~6% and guides FY24
NCC.B.SS (NCC) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK4.02 vs FactSet SEK3.05
RVRC.SS (RVRC Holding) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK1.00 vs FactSet SEK1.01
NPAPER.SS (Nordic Paper Holding) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK0.96 vs FactSet SEK1.20; cuts dividend (14%) y/y
France
RNO.FP (Renault) -- Group decides to cancel Ampere's IPO and confirms its EV and software strategy; decision has no impact on the financial guidance and its capital allocation strategy
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- Eiffage's APPR reports Q4 consolidated revenue ex construction €708.0M vs year-ago €667.6M
ALMDT.FP (MEDIAN Technologies) -- reports prelim FY revenue €22.2M vs FactSet €22.4M
Southern Europe
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- reports Q4 net income €2.06B vs consensus €1.96B
Also due today:
Earnings
DACHs: KPS (KSC.GR)
France: Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Groupe Partouche (PARP.FP)
Nordics: Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Jm (JM.SS)
UK: Diageo (DGE.LN), SThree (STEM.LN)
Trading Update: SEB (SK.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Eurobio-Scientific (ALERS.FP), Balyo (BALYO.FP), Safilo Group (SFL.IM), Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN), Luceco (LUCE.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN), Saga (SAGA.LN), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN)
CMD/events: Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM), WPP (WPP.LN)
M&A
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- to explore divestment options for Cement business
ERG.IM (ERG) -- completes the acquisition of a 73.2 MW wind and solar portfolio in France from QEnergy (post EU close 29-Jan)
Moneta Gold and Nighthawk Gold announce shareholders of both companies voted to approve acquisition
PGA Tour reportedly close to finalizing $3B investment from consortium Strategic Sports Group with an additional, subsequent investment from the Saudi Public Investment fund - Bloomberg
Healthcare
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- achieves $20M development milestone payment related to ongoing global Phase 3 head and neck cancer study
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- resolves on cash capital increase of €82.84M
Other
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by Bpifrance Participations SA)
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- reportedly hit by ransomware attack -- BleepingComputer, citing sources
ROO.LN (Deliveroo) -- Delivery Hero places c. 68M Class A ordinary shares in Deliveroo at £1.13/share with institutional investors
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AVOL.SW ( Avolta) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
SGSN.SW (SGS) -- to hold from sell at Stifel
TOP.DC (Topdanmark) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
SKA.B.SS (Skanska) -- to buy from underperform at Jefferies
Downgrades
ANTO.LN (Antofagasta) -- to reduce from hold at Peel Hunt
FUTR.LN (Future Plc) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
WAVE.FP (Wavestone) -- to hold from buy at Stifel
IAG.SM (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
NMAN.SS (Nederman Holding) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
Others
KNOS.LN (Kainos Group) -- re-initiated buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +0.11% to 36065.86
Hang Seng (1.95%) to 15763.56
Shanghai Composite (1.19%) to 2849.04
S&P futures (1.5) vs prior close of 4954.5
€-$ (0.0017) or (0.16%) to 1.0818
$-¥ (0.16) or (0.11%) to 147.34
€-¥ (0.41) or (0.26%) to 159.39
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