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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (0.69%), Hang Seng +0.84%, South Korea Kospi (0.7%) as of 03:10 ET

Feb 14 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mostly lower Wednesday although most closed off their troughs. Japan's Topix and Nikkei gave up some of yesterday's gains on read through from the Nasdaq selloff overnight. There were some sharp selloffs in Seoul, Sydney, and India. Southeast Asia was also down. Hong Kong reversed a steep selloff first thing to close nearly 1% higher. Mainland China, Taiwan and Indonesia closed for holidays. US futures mixed, Europe opened flat. US dollar off last night's peaks, yen and AUD recovered some overnight losses. Treasury yields mixed following overnight gains, JGB yields higher. Crude oil, precious and industrial metals all lower. Cryptocurrencies weaker.

    • Asia markets followed through from overnight losses on Wall Street with a correction of their own Wednesday, as higher Treasury yields sent the US dollar higher and regional currencies lower. Fed fund futures now indicate a mere 10% chance of a March cut with favored bets now indicating late July's meeting as the most likely to see a 25 bps trim. Overnight, regional currencies weakened across the board with the yen back at the 150 per dollar mark that is seen as a line in the sand for the Japan Finance ministry, provoking several verbal interventions over the day from officials.

    • Hong Kong's markets endured a choppy day, losing almost 2% at one point before closing positive. The large internet and consumer stocks outperformed leading the Hang Seng Tech index to add 2.5% but its property stocks underperformed again just as a Hong Kong realty company said no sales had been finalized in any of the city's top ten housing estates over LNY. Nevertheless, encouraging spending data from the LNY holiday supported sentiment over the day. Elsewhere, counting began in Indonesia's general election with former army general Prabowo edging ahead in early counting. India blocked protestors form reaching New Delhi as tensions between farmers and the government grew.

    • Softbank (9984.JP) and Nvidia are to establish an industry group to commercialize new AI technology. Sony Group (6758.JP) said it planned to list its financial business in October 2025 and would keep a 20% stake in the unit. Standard Chartered (STAN.LN) is considering breaking up its corporate and investment banks in another attempt to improve returns. BYD (1211.HK) is planning to build a new EV plant in Mexico for use as an export hub to the US. GoTo (GOTO.IJ) denied it had restarted merger discussions with Grab (GRAB). The EU has conditionally approved the merger between Korean Air () and Asiana Airlines (020560.KS), Korean Air extended deadline for deal to 20-Dec.

  • Digest:

    • USD/JPY back in the 150 range:

      • Renewed attention on yen weakness after USD/JPY rallied 1% overnight into the 150 range for the first time since November. Latest catalyst was firmer than expected US CPI which was seen to effectively rule out an early Fed rate cut in March, boosting dollar and adding to bearish yen sentiment in Japan yesterday reflecting dovish takeaways from latest BOJ rhetoric -- that policy would remain easy after a NIRP exit (Nikkei). Growing appetite for foreign equities through NISA program also weighed on yen. Levels reviving usual attention on FX intervention risk, though some thoughts Japan authorities likely to refrain from action below 152. With yen falling progressively since the new year, Finance Minister Suzuki has repeated MOF's stock remarks (rapid moves undesirable, closely watching developments) while refraining from explicitly signaling intent to intervene (Reuters). FX policy chief Kanda warned that recent movements in the FX market have been rapid (noting a nearly 10 yen depreciation over the past month), and authorities would take appropriate actions in the market if needed.

    • Vote counting begins in Indonesia elections; Prabowo takes early lead:

      • Current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto edged ahead in early counts in Indonesia's presidential elections with 59% of the vote in early 'quick results' count. If this holds, he will win Presidency in single vote without need for runoff election in June. Anies Baswedan on 24%, Ganjar 17% (JakartaPost). Polls closed lunchtime, counting began straight away with 'quick results' within hours, official results finalized by 20-Mar (StraitsTimes, JakartaPost). Legislative polls see 580 seats elected in House of Representatives, 20K more at regional level. Presidential poll comes under shadow of incumbent President Joko Widodo endorsing Prabawo, who represents another party from his own, and who's running mate for VP is Joko's own son. Protests broke out Monday over Joko's unofficial endorsement, with activists accusing Joko of abuse of power in attempting to sway voters.

    • StreetAccount Event Preview: Japan Q4 GDP

      • Ahead of tomorrow's release, Reuters consensus looks for Q4 GDP growth of 1.4% q/q annualized, following a 2.9% contraction in the previous quarter. Press previews generally noted expectations are subdued given the limited rebound mainly reflecting ongoing lackluster momentum in private demand. With non-annualized growth expected at 0.3%, private consumption seen expanding 0.1% after slipping 0.2% in the prior quarter. Capital spending expected to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% dip in Q3. External demand set to be the main driver with a 0.3 ppt contribution, though faces downside risk reflecting slower global growth. Soft consumer demand explained by inflation pains, eclipsing the post-Covid rebound dynamic. Capex lagging behind bullish FY23 projections, stimulating some debate to reconcile disparity. However, BOJ remains upbeat on the outlook, citing strong profits and growing urgency for investments to address labor shortages. Other focal points pertain to the government's declaration of victory against deflation risk -- CPI and GDP deflator have already been met, while GDP gap and unit labor costs still being monitored. Recall BOJ's output gap measure remained negative in Q3, seen as an obstacle against an early rate hike.

    • Global manufacturing profits turn positive driven by US consumption:

      • Nikkei analysis based on QUICK/FactSet data showed Q4 global manufacturing net profits rose 2% y/y, marking the first increase in five quarters. Cited US economic resilience against the backdrop of moderating inflation and easing supply chain bottlenecks. Adds to sustained growth in nonmanufacturing earnings of 26%, taking all-industry profits up 13% (fourth straight rise). Current strength featured notable breadth with about 80% (13 out of 17) of sectors logging higher profits, compared with typical 20~40% over the past two years. Key swing factor was pharmas posting the first increase in eight quarters. Sector overcame drop in Covid vaccine demand and earnings now lifted by latest obesity and diabetes treatments. Main laggard was energy reflecting lower commodity prices. Financials also a weak spot, posting lower profits for the first time in a year amid peak policy rates. Major banks also burdened by fees to recover deposit protection costs to cover turmoil at Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders. Article added China macro as another bearish theme as companies highly exposed to the region struggled.

    • India locks down capital as farmers' protests grow, food inflation eases:

      • India's security forces clashed with farmers for second day Wednesday as they neared New Delhi after negotiations between union and government over minimum prices for crops failed to reach agreement (Reuters). Police used drones to drop tear gas on hundreds of protesters gathering on Punjab-Haryana state borders, 200km short of capital. Protests follow similar year-long protest in 2021 which brought concessions from PM Modi, but farmers say these have been slow to materialize. Opposition politicians seen with protestors, Congress Party said state governments "careless" towards farmers' plight (TimesofIndia). Authorities cut mobile internet services in Haryana in bid to stop organized gatherings. Separately Wednesday, inflation data showed food price inflation eased in January y/y; wholesale food inflation fell to 3.79% from 5.39% in December, overall wholesale inflation eased to 0.27% y/y, lowest in three months.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.9% 5838.JP (Rakuten Bank): reports 9M net income attributable ¥25.08B, +23% vs year-ago ¥20.38B, ordinary income ¥101.08B, +13% vs year-ago ¥89.14B

      • +8.2% 2501.JP (Sapporo Holdings): reportedly considering selling real estate in Tokyo and low-profit vending machine business

      • +7.8% 7532.JP (Pan Pacific International Holdings): reports Q2 revenue ¥538.27B vs FactSet ¥541.24B, operating income ¥42.62B vs FactSet ¥36.28B; raises FY guidance; reports January same-stores sales +5.5% y/y

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -36.8% 1668.HK (China South City Holdings): to default on mandatory redemption payment due today under October 2024 notes

      • -16.6% 6268.JP (Nabtesco): reports FY operating income ¥17.38B vs guidance ¥19.00B and FactSet ¥17.55B; guides FY24 revenue ¥322.00B vs FactSet ¥331.26B, operating income ¥12.80B vs FactSet ¥19.62B

      • -12.9% 4385.JP (Mercari): reports Q2 net income attributable ¥1.74B vs FactSet ¥3.14B, revenue ¥48.12B vs FactSet ¥48.34B

      • -8.8% 020560.KS (Asiana Airlines): EU conditionally clears Korean Air's acquisition of Asiana Airlines

      • -6.7% 3769.JP (GMO Payment Gateway): reports Q1 revenue ¥17.79B vs FactSet ¥17.93B, operating income ¥5.83B vs FactSet ¥6.19B

      • -3.9% 2502.JP (Asahi Group Holdings): reports FY revenue ¥2.769T vs guidance ¥2.690T and FactSet ¥2.728T, operating profit ¥245.00B vs guidance ¥234.5B and FactSet ¥251.05B

      • -0.3% 097950.KS (CJ CheilJedang): reports Q4 net income attributable KRW112.48B vs FactSet KRW110.13B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • No economic data today

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (260.65) or (0.69%) to 37703.32

      • Hang Seng: 132.80 or +0.84% to 15879.38

      • Shanghai Composite: Closed

      • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

      • ASX200: (55.90) or (0.74%) to 7547.70

      • KOSPI: (29.22) or (1.10%) to 2620.42

      • SENSEX: (347.05) or (0.49%) to 71208.14

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.44) or (0.29%) to 150.4230

      • $-KRW: (5.71) or (0.43%) to 1335.4100

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.33% to 0.6474

      • $-INR: (0.04) or (0.05%) to 83.0765

      • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.11%) to 7.1823

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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