Feb 14 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity futures indicate a softer open. Follows selloff in equity markets on Wednesday. Asian equity markets mostly lower. Nikkei down after big gains in prior session. ASX weaker. Hang Seng reversed early lower and a notable outperformer. Mainland China remains closed for Lunar New Year. US equity futures higher with S&P up 0.1%.
Widespread fallout from hotter-than-expected US CPI print. Large backup in bond yields as markets pushed out expected first Fed rate cut to July. Futures now pricing in ~90 bp of easing in 2024 (vs ~115 earlier this week). However, data not expected to put much of a dent in broader disinflation narrative with inflation expected to moderate following January price hikes. Some thought post-CPI risk-off move more a function of overbought conditions.
Today's European agenda sees UK parliament committee topics include regular evidence sessions with BOE's Bailey at 15:00GMT, while House of Lords sees committee stage for Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill.
In central banks, ECB's de Guindos speech at 9:30CET at Annual Conf of the Mediterranean Central Banks whilst ECB's Cipollone at hearing on the digital euro at 15:00CET before the EP's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs and participates at 17:30 in CEO Summit organised by EuroCommerce. Bundesbank's Nagel panelist at 18:00CET at Citizens' Forum.
In macro, UK Jan CPI/RPI/PPI input/output, Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec industrial production, Norway Q4 GDP, Netherlands Q4 preliminary GDP and Dec trade balance are due to be released.
On a busy earnings front, from the Benelux region, Heineken (HEIA.NA) reported FY EPS (beia) €4.67 vs consensus €4.80 and guides 2024 operating profit (beia) organic growth in the range of a low- to high-single-digit whilst ABN AMRO Bank (ABN.NA) reports Q4 net income €545M vs consensus €422M and announced third share buyback of €500M. In the DACHs region, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) reports Q1 adj EBIT €84M vs consensus €81.0M and said FY24 net income to increase to break-even vs prior "increase to positive figure in low to mid three-digit million euro range". ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR) announces higher than expected increase in earnings in Q4 and specifies outlook for 2024. Schindler Holding (SCHN.SW), Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) and Bilfinger (GBF.GR) are also out with results. In the Nordics, Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) reports Q4 EPS NOK0.50 ex-items vs consensus NOK0.67 whilst Mowi (MOWI.NO) reports Q4 underlying EPS €0.26 vs FactSet €0.24. In France, Capgemini (CAP.FP) reports FY normalized EPS €12.44 vs FactSet €11.19.
Macro
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux:
HEIA.NA (Heineken) -- reports FY EPS (beia) €4.67 vs consensus €4.80; guides 2024 operating profit (beia) organic growth in the range of a low- to high-single-digit
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- reports Q4 adjusted net income ($46M) vs year-ago $205M
ALFEN.NA (Alfen) -- reports FY adjusted net income €30.7M vs FactSet €29.6M
ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank) -- reports Q4 net income €545M vs consensus €422M; announces third share buyback of €500M
DACHs:
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- reports Q1 adj EBIT €84M vs consensus €81.0M; FY24 net income to increase to break-even vs prior "increase to positive figure in low to mid three-digit million euro range"
PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- ProSiebenSat.1 announces higher than expected increase in earnings in Q4 and specifies outlook for 2024
DHER.GR (Delivery Hero) -- confirms prelim Q4 & FY23 results and FY24 outlook as per 5-Feb update
GBF.GR (Bilfinger) -- reports FY adj EPS €3.12 vs FactSet €2.72 [5 est, €2.21-3.01]; guides FY24 and hikes divi by ~38%
SCHN.SW (Schindler Holding) -- reports Q4 EPS CHF2.09 vs StreetAccount CHF2.01
TKA.AV (Telekom Austria) -- reports Q4 net income €145M vs FactSet €144.1M [1 est]
BDT.GR (Bertrandt) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.78 vs year-ago €0.62
HTG.GR (HomeToGo) -- reports preliminary Q4 adjusted EBITDA (€3M) vs FactSet (€3.9M) [1 est]
MVV1.GR (MVV Energie) -- reports Q1 adj net income €65M vs year-ago €139M
MARI.AV (Marinomed Biotech) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €9.2M vs FactSet €15.4M [1 est]
France:
CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- reports FY normalized EPS €12.44 vs FactSet €11.19 [17 est, €9.13-12.12]
VCT.FP (Vicat) -- reports FY net income €258M vs FactSet €228.7M [6 est, €174-254.0M]
MMT.FP (M6-Metropole) -- reports FY net income €237.1M vs FactSet €226.6M [6 est, €213-248M]
PIG.FP (Haulotte Group) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €767M vs FactSet €766.2M [4 est, €760-775.5M]
Nordics:
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- reports Q4 EPS NOK0.50 ex-items vs consensus NOK0.67
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- reports Q4 underlying EPS €0.26 vs FactSet €0.24 [10 est, €0.19-0.32]
AUTO.NO (AutoStore Holdings) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.01 vs FactSet $0.02 [4 est, $0.01-0.02]
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Jan sales €894.8M, (2.1%) y/y in comparable terms
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- reports Q4 EPS (NOK0.02) vs year-ago (NOK0.87)
AKAST.NO (Akastor) -- reports Q4 net income (NOK150M) vs FactSet (NOK19M) [1 est]
TAALA.FH (Taaleri) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.14 vs year-ago €0.20
PEXIP.NO (Pexip Holding) -- reports Q4 revenue NOK285.2M vs FactSet NOK286.1M [3 est, NOK283-290.3M]
SMCRT.NO (SmartCraft) -- reports Q4 revenue NOK107M vs FactSet NOK103.9M [3 est, NOK102-106.5M]
CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies) -- reports Q4 net income (NOK9.3M) vs year-ago (NOK8.3M)
CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding) -- reports Q4 EPS (NOK0.87) vs FactSet NOK1.70 [6 est, NOK1.38-1.90]
PIHLIS.FH (Pihlajalinna) -- reports Q4 EPS (€0.25) vs year-ago (€0.03); reinstates divi and guides FY24
WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.25 vs year-ago $0.48
ULTI.NO (Ultimovacs) -- reports FY EPS (NOK5.50) vs FactSet (NOK5.57) [1 est]
AKBM.NO (Aker BioMarine) -- reports Q4 net income $9.9M vs year-ago $0.2M
AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.80 vs FactSet $0.80 [5 est, $0.77-0.83]
MOBA.NO (Morrow Bank) -- reports FY EPS NOK0.62 vs FactSet NOK0.57 [2 est, NOK0.56-0.59]
MEKO.SS (MEKO) -- reports Q4 EPS (SEK0.07) vs year-ago SEK2.05
SHOT.SS (Scandic Hotels Group) -- reports Q4 EPS (excluding IFRS 16) SEK0.78 ex-items vs year-ago SEK0.49
M&A
ES (Eversource Energy) -- announces pathway to fully exit offshore wind investments
CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom) -- Cellnex receiving interest in Irish unit from SBA Communications, Phoenix Tower, and Asterion Industrial Partners - Reuters
ACAD.SS (AcadeMedia) -- Mellby Gård sells all shares in AcadeMedia to the Akelius Foundation
IMG.CN (IAMGOLD) -- announces implementation of squeeze-out for the common shares of Euro Ressources
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- weighing options for its investment banking unit -- Bloomberg
NEOBO.SS (Neobo Fastigheter) -- divests six residential properties in Eskilstuna for SEK113M
Healthcare
MACK (Merrimack Pharmaceuticals) -- Merrimack reports Ipsen announcement of FDA approval of Onivyde; to hold special meeting of stockholders to approve plan of dissolution in May 2024
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- FDA approves Ipsen's Onivyde for the first-line treatment of metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma
IOBT (IO Biotech) -- Insider transaction: IO Biotech holder Novo Holdings discloses sale of 658K shares - Form 4
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- Santhera Pharmaceuticals announces publication of efficacy, safety and tolerability data with vamorolone in patients with DMD in the VISION-DMD study
Other
TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg) -- to establish a new business area to strengthen focus on healthcare and medica
CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies) -- launches private placement of NOK 75 - 100M
SAN.SM (Banco Santander) -- says internal review of accounts found no breach of US sanctions - Bloomberg
ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc) -- abrdn holder Harris Associates sold its stake last year due to lack of confidence in management - FT
VER.AV (Verbund) -- proposes a special dividend of €0.75 per share in addition to the regular dividend of €3.40 per share
TUI.LN (TUI Group) -- TUI AG announces shareholder approval of proposed delisting from the London Stock Exchange; last day of LSE trading expected to be 21-Jun
VPK.NA (Royal Vopak) -- announces up to €300M share buyback program
VAR1.GR (VARTA) -- discloses cyber attack on IT systems
SRAIL.SW (Stadler Rail) -- SBB exercises option for five more Giruno trains from Stadler
VCT.FP (Vicat) -- Vicat's board to propose dividend of €2.00 per share vs year-ago €1.65 per share
MMT.FP (M6-Metropole) -- The Chairman of the Supervisory board informed the board of the desire expressed by Nicolas de Tavernost to leave his functions before 22-Aug-25
Key rating changes
Upgrades
PEAB.B.SS (Peab) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
WIHL.SS (Wihlborgs Fastigheter) -- Wihlborgs Fastigheter short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
Downgrades
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
DEMANT.DC (Demant) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
LIGHT.NA (Signify) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
COP.GR (CompuGroup Medical) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
KIND.SS (Kindred Group) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
Initiations
DSCV.LN (discoverIE Group) -- sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
Other Actions
ARBN.SW (Arbonia) -- resumed neutral at UBS; prior rating was neutral
Data
Nikkei (0.69%) to 37703.32
Hang Seng +0.89% to 15886.07
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 2865.90
S&P futures +4.0 vs prior close of 4971.3
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.06% to 1.0719
$-¥ (0.38) or (0.25%) to 150.48
€-¥ (0.21) or (0.13%) to 161.27
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