Feb 18 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Monday trade. Futures signaling pullback in Japan. Hang Seng futures little changed. ASX flat in initial trade. S&P 500 futures marginally lower (US closed Monday for President's Day). Australian bonds little changed after Treasury curve bear flattened on Friday. FX markets steady after dollar capped off fifth straight weekly gain. Crude backtracking after logging second straight weekly gain. Gold unchanged. Bitcoin extending gains to Nov-2021 highs.
PBOC left MLF rate unchanged as expected while making negligible change to liquidity. Takeaways reaffirmed perceptions PBOC focused on maintaining liquidity balance over Lunar New Year holiday and reluctant to take action that could fan yuan depreciation. However, deflation pressures and subdued growth continue to underpin expectations of additional rate cuts. National People's Congress in March looms as potential stimulus catalyst, though also thoughts leaders will again shy away from meaningful easing.
China government data showed big y/y growth in holiday travel and spending, also outpacing pre-pandemic levels. While spending figures were viewed positively, some commentators warned against extrapolating to consumption more broadly after private data showed sharp in January car sales. Tourism revenue per trip and per person also remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data have prompted reassessment of Fed pivot expectations as markets continued to dial back projected 2024 rate cuts (~85 bp of easing vs 150 bp two weeks ago). While data was blamed for some of last week's risk-off move, some economists argued disinflation narrative remains intact. Cited one-off price increases and pointing out markets have almost aligned with Fed's 2024 rate cut projections (75 bp).
Sentiment decidedly more bullish in key Asian markets. Hang Seng's rally was partly attributed to preliminary holiday spending and travel data (tourism-related stocks up big). Tech also scored outsized gains with AI proliferation theme in focus following bullish sell-side takes on TSMC's January sales update. Elsewhere, Nikkei's rally moved it to within touching distance of record high (weak yen, BOJ rhetoric on post-NIRP financial conditions, earnings and corporate governance push among bullish talking points).
Pre-open Company News:
2096.HK -- Simcere Pharmaceutical Group guides FY net income attributable CNY685-745M vs FactSet CNY813.7M [3 est, CNY698-935M]
600009.CH -- Shanghai International Airport reports January operational statistics: Pudong takeoffs and landings 43,195 +56.8% y/y
1167.HK -- Jacobio Pharmaceuticals announces Phase III clinical trial of SHP2 inhibitor JAB-3312 in combination with KRAS G12C inhibitor Glecirasib has been approved by CDE of the NMPA
601021.CH -- Spring Airlines reports January traffic +50.8% y/y
600999.CH -- China Merchants Securities guides FY net income attributable CNY8.74B vs FactSet CNY8.57B [9 est, CNY7.30-10.44B]
603885.CH -- Juneyao Airlines reports January traffic +55.60% y/y
3034.TT -- Novatek Microelectronics downgraded to neutral from buy at Cathay Financial
9501.JP -- Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings initiated underperform at Haitong
544027.IN -- Fedbank Financial Services initiated buy at ICICI Securities
9766.JP -- KONAMI downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley MUFG
4768.JP -- OTSUKA CORP upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi
^TTNASIA -- Central bank meeting minutes, BOK rate decision among this week's highlights:
SPL.AU -- Starpharma Holdings reports FDA still requires additional clinical efficacy data for approval of VivaGel BV for bacterial vaginosis
^TTNASIA -- RBI extends wind-down deadline on Paytm:
532500.IN -- Maruti Suzuki India downgraded to reduce from add at Emkay Research
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
NagaCorp (3918.HK), Ferretti (9638.HK)
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Core Machinery Orders ex-Electric Power Companies & Ships SA M/M; consensus +2.8%
Australia:
Earnings:
New Hope Corp. (NHC.AU), Baby Bunting Group (BBN.AU), Infomedia (IFM.AU), Link Administration Holdings (LNK.AU), Westpac Banking (WBC.AU), HMC Capital (HMC.AU), 3P Learning (3PL.AU), Ansell (ANN.AU), Aspen Group (APZ.AU), ARB Corp. (ARB.AU), AUB Group (AUB.AU), Bravura Solutions (BVS.AU), Centuria Capital (CNI.AU), Emeco Holdings (EHL.AU), EnviroSuite (EVS.AU), HUB24 (HUB.AU), Integral Diagnostics (IDX.AU), Mader Group (MAD.AU), Netwealth Group (NWL.AU), Retail Food Group (RFG.AU), SG Fleet Group (SGF.AU), Sonic Healthcare (SHL.AU), Solvar (SVR.AU), Winton Land (WTN.AU)
New Zealand:
Earnings:
Mercury NZ (MCY.NZ), Steel & Tube Holdings (STU.NZ), Tourism Holdings (THL.NZ)
Thailand:
Economic:
09:30 SAST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.4%
Earnings:
Thai Union Group Public (TU.TB)
Market Data:
Gold (Apr 24): +$1.30 or +0.06% to $2025.40
WTI Crude (Mar 24): ($0.14) or (0.18%) to $79.05
$-¥: (0.12) or (0.08%) to 150.0900
$-KRW: (1.01) or (0.08%) to 1331.5800
A$-$: 0.00 or 0.00% to 0.6532
$-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 83.0155
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.1182
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