Feb 21 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets traded mixed throughout today's session. Retail, auto and construction/materials best performers; miners and banks the main laggards. FTSE underperforming amid weakness in HSBC (HSBA.LN) and Glencore (GLEN.LN) after earnings updates. Treasuries weaker with some curve flattening. Bund up 3 bps at 2.41%. 10-year Gilt 7 bps firmer at 4.11%. Dollar index flat with little movement on the major crosses. Gold down 0.2%. Bitcoin futures down 1.8%. WTI crude up 0.6%. US equities lower in Wednesday midday trading.
In Europe, Eurozone consumer confidence improved in February, as expected. Public finance data from the UK showed bigger-than-expected January surplus. CBI industrial trends better than expected. Latest Reuters poll of economists showed small majority anticipate BoE will start cutting rates in August with Bank Rate ending the year 75 bps lower at 4.75%. Study by BCG showed most UK firms planning to increase prices this year by 6% of more, justifying BoE worries over the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, UK think tank estimates fiscal space of £23B, higher than recent speculation on OBR estimates.
Amidst busy earnings calendar, out of the DACHs region, Fresenius (FRE.GR) Q4 EPS, EBIT beat; revenue missed; no dividend for FY 2023; guided 2024; Telefonica Deutschland Holding (O2D.GR) reported Q4 adj OIBDA, revenue beat; guided 2024; EFG International (EFGN.SW) FY beat across metrics while Wienerberger (WIE.AV) FY results missed. In France, after the close yesterday, Carrefour (CA.FP) reported FY earnings, hiked dividends by 55% y/y, and announced a new €700M share buyback program in 2024. In the UK, HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN) reported FY revenue, CET1 beat while Pretax income, NII, EPS missed; The company also announced a new share buyback up to $2B. BAE Systems (BA.LN) FY beat across metrics and guides FY24 underlying EPS to increase by +6-8%; Glencore (GLEN.LN) FY slight missed with FY EPS pre-significant items $0.53 vs consensus $0.54 and proposed $0.13/share base distribution while Tate & Lyle (TATE.LN) released Q3 trading statement showing group revenues down (4%) and EBITDA guidance for year ending 31-Mar-24 unchanged. In the Netherlands, JDE Peet's (JDEP.NA) reported FY EPS €1.51 ex-items vs FactSet €1.67 FY EPS, revenue missed; EBIT beat; provides 2024 guidance while Wolters Kluwer (WKL.NA) FY EPS beat, raised dividend by +15% y/y and announced a 2024 share buyback of up to €1B, of which €100M is completed. Out of the Nordics region, Synsam (SYNSAM.SS), OX2 AB (OX2.SS), NKT A/S (NKT.DC), FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.DC) and Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.DC) update investors with their latest numbers.
In M&A, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (SGO.FP) confirmed in advanced talks to acquire CSR (CSR.AU) at an offer price of A$9.00/share in cash. Currys (CURY.LN) largest shareholder supports decision to reject Elliott's takeover bid while Danone (BN.FP), according to media reports, is planning to sell Russian business to Chechnya-linked Tatarstan for €177.5M. Shortly before the close, shares of Halfords Group (HFD.LN) shares jumped over +11% on takeover rumours that Redde Northgate has apparently made a fresh approach.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Autos & Parts +1.62%, Retail +0.78%, Construct & Mtls +0.68%, Oil & Gas+0.60%, Insurance +0.23%, Utilities +0.12%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.03%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.03%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.06%), Technology (0.14%)
Underperformers:
Banks (1.08%), Basic Resources (0.81%), Health Care (0.73%), Real Estate (0.73%), Travel & Leisure (0.56%), Media (0.49%), Telecom (0.36%), Chemicals (0.28%), Financial Svcs (0.19%)
Macro:
EU agrees first sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies for Russia war links: FT
BoE:
Germany:
Germany's economic advisers to cut 2024 growth forecast: Reuters
France:
France seeks first meeting for India-EU infrastructure link: Bloomberg
UK:
Chancellor Hunt was handed a borrowing boost ahead of the March budget with the largest monthly surplus since records began in January (CityAM)
Think tank estimates Hunt has £23B for UK tax cuts: Bloomberg
Peripheral markets:
Switzerland:
Investors positive on outlook for Swiss equities: Reuters
Italy:
Italy weighs sale of new stake in Monte Paschi to cut debt: Bloomberg
Spain:
Greece:
Illegal economy recorded a significant decline in Greece from 2013 to 2021, according to IMF report - Kathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+8.4% GARO.SS (GARO SEK27.96, +2.18) -- final Q4 earnings
+7.5% HFD.LN (Halfords Group £2.03, +0.14) -- takeover rumours from Betaville cited
+6.7% ROBIT.FH (Robit €1.52, +0.10) -- Q4 earnings
+6.4% NKT.DC (NKT A/S DKK523.00, +31.40) -- FY earnings
+5.3% CA.FP (Carrefour €16.53, +0.83) -- FY earnings
+5.0% FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co. DKK308.20, +14.80) -- final Q4 earnings
+4.4% KTCG.AV (Kapsch TrafficCom €9.08, +0.38) -- 9M earnings
+4.3% OX2.SS (OX2 AB SEK46.84, +1.92) -- Q4 earnings
+3.7% MAIRE.IM (Maire Tecnimont €5.02, +0.18) -- contract
+3.3% CURY.LN (Currys £0.68, +0.02) -- largest shareholder Redwheel supports decision to reject Elliott's takeover offer
+2.0% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK109.30, +2.10) -- Q4 earnings
+1.9% AED.BB (Aedifica €55.65, +1.05) -- FY earnings
+1.9% KEYS.LN (Keystone Law Group £5.50, +0.10) -- FY trading update
+1.6% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.09, +0.02) -- has agreed sale of BT Tower for £275M to MCR Hotels
+1.5% EFGN.SW (EFG International CHF12.08, +0.18) -- FY earnings
+0.9% CCR.LN (C&C Group £1.56, +0.01) -- buyback
+0.6% FRE.GR (Fresenius €26.19, +0.15) -- Q4 earnings
+0.6% O2D.GR (Telefonica Deutschland Holding €2.37, +0.01) -- Q4 earnings
+0.5% HAT.LN (H&T Group £3.72, +0.02) -- to buy certain assets of Maxcroft Securities for £11.3M in cash
+0.5% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €145.66, +0.70) -- nearing a deal to sell A330neo jets to VietJet - sources tell Reuters
Notable Decliners
-51.3% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics £0.03, -0.03) -- FY trading update
-22.2% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK99.80, -28.50) -- Q4 earnings
-16.4% GHH.LN (Gooch & Housego £5.10, -1.00) -- AGM trading update
-12.6% SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden SEK152.90, -22.00) -- Q4 earnings
-11.1% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK1.60, -0.20) -- Q4 earnings
-8.1% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £5.91, -0.52) -- FY earnings; $2.0B buyback
-6.8% PHO.NO (PhotoCure NOK56.00, -4.10) -- Q4 earnings
-5.5% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £1.12, -0.06) -- PUSU deadline further extended to 20-Mar
-4.9% JDEP.NA (JDE Peet's €22.02, -1.14) -- FY earnings
-3.8% ALATI.FP (Actia Group €3.80, -0.15) -- prelim Q4 sales
-3.2% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK167.00, -5.50) -- prelim FY numbers
-2.0% NVG.PL (The Navigator Co. €3.75, -0.08) -- Q4 earnings
-1.5% BA.LN (BAE Systems £12.34, -0.19) -- FY earnings
-1.3% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $51.62, -0.68) -- FY earnings
-1.3% WSU.GR (Washtec €34.50, -0.45) -- Chairman of Management board Ralf Koeppe leaves with immediate effect
-1.2% GLEN.LN (Glencore £3.86, -0.05) -- FY earnings
-1.2% PPC.GA (Public Power Corp. €11.90, -0.15) -- has not entered into any relevant discussion or agreement with respect to acquiring the telecommunications company Nova
-1.1% WKL.NA (Wolters Kluwer €145.60, -1.60) -- FY earnings
-0.5% WIE.AV (Wienerberger €32.44, -0.16) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI.NA), Arcadis (ARCAD.NA), Aalberts (AALB.NA), Galapagos (GLPG.NA), Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.NA), Nedap (NEDAP.NA), ForFarmers (FFARM.NA), EVS Broadcast Equipment (EVS.BB), Kinepolis Group (KIN.BB), Biotalys (BTLS.BB)
DACHs: Nestle (NESN.SW), Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW), Sulzer (SUN.SW), Cembra Money Bank (CMBN.SW), Energiedienst Holding (EDHN.SW), medmix (MEDX.SW), Kudelski (KUD.SW), Feintool International Holding (FTON.SW), Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR), Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR), Hochtief (HOT.GR), Krones (KRN.GR), Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), Cliq Digital (CLIQ.GR), Schloss Wachenheim (SWA.GR), Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI.AV)
Denmark: ISS (ISS.DC), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC)
Finland: Atria (ATRAV.FH), SSH Communications Security (SSH1V.FH)
France: AXA (CS.FP), Danone (BN.FP), ENGIE (ENGI.FP), Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP), Accor (AC.FP), SEB (SK.FP), Alten (ATE.FP), Sopra Steria Group (SOP.FP), Plastic Omnium (POM.FP), LISI (FII.FP), Fnac Darty (FNAC.FP),
Norway: Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Panoro Energy (PEN.NO)
Southern Europe: Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Telefonica (TEF.SM), Repsol (REP.SM), Neinor Homes (HOME.SM), Recordati (REC.IM), doValue (DOV.IM), Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (HTO.GA), Corticeira Amorim (COR.PL)
Sweden: Lundbergs (LUND.B.SS), Bure Equity (BURE.SS), Catena (CATE.SS), Cint Group (CINT.SS), Egetis Therapeutics (EGTX.SS), Softronic (SOF.B.SS), Viking Supply Ships (VSSAB.B.SS), Viaplay Group (VPLAY.B.SS), Ferronordic (FNM.SS), BioInvent International (BINV.SS), Sensys Gatso Group (SGG.SS), Arla Plast (ARPL.SS)
UK: Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN), Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN), Anglo American (AAL.LN), WPP (WPP.LN), Mondi (MNDI.LN), Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.LN), Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.LN), Hays (HAS.LN), Genus (GNS.LN), Morgan Sindall Group (MGNS.LN), ME Group International (MEGP.LN), Jupiter Fund Management (JUP.LN)
Trading Update: Safestore Holdings (SAFE.LN), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Amplitude Surgical (AMPLI.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Feb Flash Consumer Confidence (15.5) vs consensus (15.6) and prior (16.1)
UK Feb CBI Industrial Trends Orders (20) vs consensus (27) and prior (30)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): +$0.52 or +0.67% to $77.56
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0820
£-$ +0.0005 or +0.04% to 1.2627
€-£ +0.0008 to 0.8570
S&P 500 (0.17%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.91%)
DAX: +2.19%
CAC: +3.56%
MIB: +5.47%
Stoxx 600: +2.52%
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