Feb 26 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower following last week's gains when European equity markets ended mostly higher; the benchmark STOXX Europe 600 registered a new all-time high. FTSE 100 lagged amid weakness in miners and energy names.
There may be some further weakness this morning in the miners as iron ore fell to the lowest since October - after dropping almost 9% last week (Bloomberg)
Asian equities trading mixed Monday. Japan's markets to close on another record high. Greater China mixed. Ongoing caution towards China equities despite a raft of policy measures that have helped global outperformance in Hong Kong A-shares this month while CSI 300 has advanced for nine days, the longest streak since 2018. Bullish phase largely framed as temporary, driven by state fund support amid persistent macro headwinds.
In central banks, BOE's Breeden speech at 9:00GMT at annual BEAR research conf, BOE's Pill speech at 11:00, BOE's Saporta panelist at 13:00. Bundesbank Nagel and Finance Minister Lindner press conf 7:00CET. ECB' Lagarde speech at 17:00CET in plenary debate on the ECB Annual Report at EP.
Macro data releases include Norway Jan unemployment rate, Spain Jan PPI, UK Feb distributive trades - CBI
Today also sees meeting of the G20 finance and Central Bank deputies followed by Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (Mon-Thu). Norway's PM Støre attends the central board meeting and strategy meeting for the Labor Party. 13th WTO Ministerial Conf in Abu Dhabi (through Thu). Mobile World Congress in Barcelona; EU's Breton speech on 'Changing the DNA of our connectivity infrastructure'. Western Balkans Investment Summit 2024 speakers include EU's Várhelyi.
In corporate news highlights: Kinnevik agrees to sell its entire shareholding in Tele2 to an investment vehicle jointly controlled by iliad and NJJ for SEK 13B; PostNL reports Q4 Normalized EBIT €77M vs consensus €78.0M; final FY normalized EBIT €92M in line with prelim. Guides 2024 normalised EBIT between €80M and €110M. SGL to evaluate strategic options for the Business Unit Carbon Fibers. Santander rejects offers of ~ €700M from M&G, Carval, and Morgan Stanley for its subsidiary's mortgage portfolio, reports El Confidencial, citing sources. Saint-Gobain signs definitive agreement to acquire CSR Limited; Next expresses interest in potential deal to acquire parts of The Body Shop, reports Sky News
Macro/politics
ECB Officials Try to Buy More Time for Decision on Rate Cuts (Bloomberg)
ECB's Makhlouf in no rush to cut as vigilance on wages needed (Bloomberg)
Global house prices rebound as economists predict turning point (FT)
UK public services will buckle under planned spending cuts, economists warn (Guardian)
UK seeks to spur business investment with coordinated ministerial push (Bloomberg)
Britons at risk of lower pay than migrants under new visa salary rules (Telegraph)
The peer, the pollster and the rumblings of a plan to oust Rishi Sunak (London Times)
Who could replace Rishi Sunak? These are the agents of change (London Times)
Draghi Urges EU to Ready Huge Spending as World Order Shifts (Bloomberg)
European banks promise €120bn of shareholder returns on interest rate gains (FT)
Lindsay Hoyle braced for tough week as SNP demands new Gaza vote in Commons (FT)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PNL.NA (PostNL) -- reports Q4 Normalized EBIT €77M vs consensus €78.0M; final FY normalized EBIT €92M in line with prelim.; 2024 Outlook: Normalised EBIT between €80M and €110M
LOCAL.FP (Solocal Group) -- reports prelim FY revenue €359.7M; postpones 2023 financial results announcement
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Liechtensteinische Landesbank (LLBN.SW)
France: Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT.FP)
Nordics: Samh nllsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden (SBB.B.SS), Fynske Bank (FYNBK.DC)
Southern Europe: Banco Comercial Portuguese (BCP.PL), CIE Automotive (CIE.SM)
UK/Ireland: Bunzl (BNZL.LN), Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG.ID), Tristel Plc (TSTL.LN)
Trading Update: Freelance.com (ALFRE.FP)
CMD/events: Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC)
M&A
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- Kinnevik agrees to sell its entire shareholding in Tele2 to an investment vehicle jointly controlled by iliad and NJJ for SEK 13B
SAN.SM (Banco Santander) -- rejects offers of ~ €700M from M&G, Carval, and Morgan Stanley for its subsidiary's mortgage portfolio - El Confidencial, citing sources
CSR.AU (CSR) -- Saint-Gobain signs definitive agreement to acquire CSR Limited; closing expected in H2 of 2024
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- Ant Group a surprise high bidder for Credit Suisse's investment bank venture in China - Bloomberg
NXT.LN (Next) -- expresses interest in potential deal to acquire parts of The Body Shop - Sky News
ECV.GR (Encavis AG) -- acquires two more solar parks in Spain
CSR.AU (CSR) -- Trading halted in CSR pending announcement regarding a potential material transaction
IGD.IM (IGD SIIIQ) -- signs an agreement with Sixth Street and Starwood Capital for the sale of a real estate portfolio valued at €258M
Accolade Wines considering mergers - The Australian
Sun TV Network, Culver Max Entertainment looking at buying stake in Arha Media & Broadcasting - Mint (17:36 IT/21:06 JT)
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- notes publication of MANDARA Phase III study of FASENRA in New England Journal of Medicine
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- reports results from the Phase 2 study RILECSU demonstrate rilzabrutinib rapidly reduced itch severity and significantly improved disease activity in adults with chronic spontaneous urticaria
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Data from Stage 1 of the NIH-sponsored Phase III OUtMATCH study evaluating Xolair (omalizumab) published in NEJM
ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides) -- FDA finalizes decision to withdraw approval for Pepaxto effective immediately
Other
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- Ryanair wants compensation from Boeing for worsening aircraft delivery delays - FT
SAP.GR (SAP) -- launches second €1.25B tranche of €5B share buyback program
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- EU Commission approves German state aid to ArcelorMittal for decarbonization
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- Audi CEO Gernot Döllner has become a source of irritation for Volkswagen management - Handelsblatt
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- files automatic mixed shelf of indeterminant amount - F-3ASR
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- initiates talks with partners on narrow-body jet engines - London Times
CS.FP (AXA) -- announces share buy-back program of up to €1.6B
VPK.NA (Royal Vopak) -- Vopak commissions 40,000 cubic meters of capacity at Sebarok terminal for blending of biofuels into marine fuels
SGL.GR (SGL Carbon) -- to evaluate strategic options for the Business Unit Carbon Fibers
SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden) -- SBB establishes a joint venture for community properties with Castlelake generating cash proceeds to SBB of approximately SEK 5.2B
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $58.8M, (37.6%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Fincantieri expecting order boom for marine industry - Handelsblatt
HDFC Bank annonces the Reserve Bank of India approves previously announced sale of 90% of stake in HDFC Credila to BPEA EQT-led consortium
Heathrow denies reports that third runway has been shelved - Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BAS.GR (BASF) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
HSX.LN (Hiscox) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt
Downgrades
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
NESN.SW (Nestle) -- to hold from buy at Stifel
HLMA.LN (Halma) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
ORNBV.FH (Orion) -- to underperform from hold at Jefferies
NK.FP (Imerys) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
DNR.IM (Industrie De Nora) -- buy at Jefferies
Data
Nikkei +0.35% to 39233.71
Hang Seng (0.54%) to 16636.09
Shanghai Composite (0.71%) to 2983.55
S&P futures (12.5) vs prior close of 5101.5
€-$ +0.0002 or +0.02% to 1.0825
$-¥ (0.05) or (0.03%) to 150.42
€-¥ (0.05) or (0.03%) to 162.80
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