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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.01%, Hang Seng +0.94%, Shanghai Composite +1.29% as of 03:10 ET

Feb 27 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities ended mixed Tuesday in another relatively quiet session. Mainland China markets closed higher again to reach three-month highs, the Hang Seng reversed an early loss to close at a YTD high. Steep falls in Seoul and Taipei as the tech rally ran out of steam. Japan flat despite hitting an intra-day record high, India reversing yesterday's losses. Southeast Asia also mixed as Singapore saw more losses but Malaysian stocks reached multi-month highs. Australia closed flat again. US futures now flat after being lower earlier, Europe slightly higher in opening trades. US dollar a little lower, yen strengthened. Treasury yields lower at the long end, higher at the short; JGB yields all higher. Crude oil, previous metals higher in the afternoon, industrial metals flat. Cryptocurrencies saw another leg higher.

    • Asia markets drifting into the close on the month with few fresh directional moves as investors look to lock in monthly gains. Tech-orientated benchmarks slid on read through from overnight losses on Wall Street but Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all on course to post healthy monthly gains. The Hang Seng's turnaround a movement of note today, as it quickly fell 1% only to close around 1% higher as auto stocks surged, while mainland China markets repeated previous patterns of positive trading on days when 'national team' funds were active.

    • The yuan was flat and continues to outperform against the dollar this month just as analysts warn it may be receiving state-sponsored support ahead of the NPC that starts next week. Future yen trajectory also in focus as analysts point out the USDJPY RSI level not as high as before previous interventions. Japan inflation fell by less than expected, core inflation eased to BOJ's 2% target for first time since early 2022 as cost-push pressures continue to wane. Taiwan export orders rose in January from December. Ahead tomorrow, RBNZ set to hold rates steady tomorrow with an outside chance of a hike.

    • BYD (1211.HK) rejected claims from the EU that China government subsidies help reduce the price of its cars. Li Auto (2015.HK) posted higher revenue and margin per vehicle in Q4, and have an upbeat outlook for 2024. Samsonite (1910.HK) is considering taking itself private and has received several offers from buyout firms; shares sharply higher. Standard Chartered (2888.HK) suspended new investments by its clients in China into offshore products, citing "commercial reasons". Paytm's (One97 Communications, 543396.IN) is set to partner with four local banks to process transactions after it was told to wind down its business by 15-Mar; founder Sharma stepped down from Paytm's Payments Bank chair.

  • Digest:

    • Japan core inflation eases to BOJ target:

      • Core nationwide CPI rose 2.0% y/y in January, slightly above consensus 1.9%. Follows 2.3% in the previous month and marks the softest reading since March 2022 when inflation was last below the BOJ's 2% target. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation also moderated to 3.5% from 3.7% vs consensus 3.3%, matching the lowest since February 2023. Details were generally consistent with preceding Tokyo data. Energy drags deepened marginally reflecting sharper decreases in electricity and gas prices. Adding to negative contributions were ongoing deceleration in non-fresh food gains, sharply lower rise in accommodation due to base effects, and a decline in fixed phone line fees. Outweighed upturn in auto insurance and sharp rise in overseas travel packages. Moderation was broadly based with goods inflation down to 2.1% from 2.8% (durables, semi-durables, non-durables all contributing) while services eased marginally to 2.2% from 2.3%. Easing inflation pressures from the 4.2% peak in January 2023 seen as long-expected result of waning import prices and higher base effects. Still, some bearish takeaways from the softening in services inflation for the first time in seven months (Nikkei).

    • China's National Team steps in to stabilize markets:

      • Lot of discussion surrounding underlying drivers of February's rebound on China markets. A-Shares up 13% month-to-date, driven in large part by suspected intervention from China's 'National Team.' UBS estimated 'National Team' ETF inflows of more than CNY410B in A-shares ($57B) so far this year (Bloomberg) Compared situation to post-devaluation intervention in 2015, when estimated National Team holdings climbed to CNY1.24T of A-share market cap, suggesting potential for further increase in current ETF holdings under extreme conditions. However, outsized influence of state-backed buying also inviting skepticism about sustainability of the rally. UBS noted stocks fluctuated after National Team ramped up purchases in 2015. Additionally, with China facing greater economic headwinds now compared to 2015, other analysts say turnaround depends on forceful stimulus aimed directly at boosting spending (via checks) in an attempt to break economy out of a liquidity trap and deflationary mindset.

    • Beijing moves to support yuan ahead of NPC:

      • Economists cited by FT said China authorities are propping up yuan against US dollar as Beijing seeks to boost confidence in currency, economy ahead of leadership NPC meeting starting 4-Mar. Said moves include postponing short-term interest rate cut, maintaining dollar trading band despite spot price moving towards official floor. Combined, has saved yuan-dollar rate from moving further beyond 1.5% depreciation against dollar (dollar DXY index +2.4% YTD). Economists said PBOC focused on defending yuan from short-term interest rate differential-induced pressure, which stoked outflows from China's bond market last year and applied pressure on yuan. Pointed to PBOC maintaining 1Y LPR steady last week that showed authorities concerned over easing broad monetary policy. Added should Trump win US Presidential election, heavy tariffs on China exports expected, which would lead to substantial weight on yuan, would be hard for Beijing to prevent 10-18% weakening.

    • Analysts see room for further yen depreciation though pressures relatively moderate:

      • Nikkei discussed FX strategists' views that USD/JPY could extend as far as 154 based on technical analysis, while noting yen selling pressures are moderate compared to previous phases above 150. Article largely focused on RSI, which topped 90% in past episodes, though currently remains neutral at around 53%. US-Japan rate differentials still the underlying driver explaining momentum shifts in the past. Expectations of Fed and BOJ policy pivots this year now supporting yen and already factored in, posing less of an impetus to sell yen aggressively this time. Still, other indicators such as equilibrium charts point to continued yen weakness and FX strategists warn that buying yen is risky at this stage amid a lack of positive catalysts. Recall earlier press discussions have noted that yen positions currently heavily skewed towards shorts, supported by dovish BOJ remarks clarifying that policy would remain accommodative after a NIRP exit. This may be sustaining yen carry trades (Bloomberg) though USD/JPY remains rangebound by dovish BOJ vs FX intervention risk (Bloomberg).

    • BOJ sees wage cost passthrough gradually spreading:

      • Nikkei discussed a BOJ research note on wage/inflation correlation, highlighting the main conclusion that passthrough of higher wage growth onto prices is gradually spreading. Meanwhile, analysis suggests inflation pressures via import prices appears to be waning. Notable signs of passthrough appearing in services with high personnel costs such as hairdressers and education, indicative of a sea-change in the decades-long era of disinflation. Article cited a BOJ official remarking this was an update to existing themes laid out in the Outlook Report and does not warrant a deeper readthrough. Still, economist takeaways suggested the BOJ seeking to communicate to the markets that service prices are rising and consistent with a strategy to prepare markets for a NIRP exit. Recall that Deputy Governor Uchida early this month highlighted the wage-price passthrough dynamic as the next incremental frontier in the assessment of whether a virtuous cycle is developing, and achievement of the BOJ's mandate could be envisaged. Uchida also noted analysis faces challenges given there is no clear indicator of labor cost passthrough comparable to the shunto negotiations, hence judgement will be made based on broader evidence including anecdotal analysis from the branch managers meeting.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +25.5% 2015.HK (Li Auto): reports Q4 non-GAAP EPADS CNY4.23 vs FactSet CNY3.17, total revenue CNY41.73B vs FactSet CNY39.75B

      • +13.9% 1952.HK (Everest Medicines): Kezar Life Sciences, Everest Medicines get China NMPA IND approval for PALIZADE trial in lupus nephritis

      • +13.1% 1910.HK (Samsonite International): reportedly weighs options including privatization

      • +6.0% 6160.HK (BeiGene): reports Q4 EPS ($3.53) vs FactSet ($3.61), revenue $634.4M vs FactSet $633.9M

      • +4.4% 9962.JP (MISUMI Group): reports January sales ¥31.32B vs year-ago ¥26.97B

      • +3.1% 2884.TT (E.SUN Financial Holding): reports Q4 revenue NT$18.50B vs year-ago NT$14.77B, net interest income NT$7.69B vs year-ago NT$6.60B

      • +1.1% 3861.JP (Oji): to conduct off-auction buyback of up-to-11.0M shares at ¥551.6/share

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -12.6% BHK.SP (SIIC Environment Holdings): reports Q4 net income attributable CNY20.6M vs year-ago CNY209.2M, revenue CNY1.22B vs year-ago CNY2.52B

      • -7.1% 352820.KS (HYBE Co.): reports Q4 operating profit KRW89.34B vs FactSet KRW91.09B, revenue KRW608.60B vs FactSet KRW664.46B

      • -4.5% 6669.TT (Wiwynn): reports FY revenue NT$241.90B vs FactSet NT$241.94; proposes 17M-share private placement to strategic investor

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan January

        • Nationwide core CPI +2.0% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and +2.3% in prior month

          • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +3.5% y/y vs consensus +3.3% and +3.7% in prior month

          • Overall CPI +2.2% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and +2.6% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 5.81 or +0.01% to 39239.52

      • Hang Seng: 156.06 or +0.94% to 16790.80

      • Shanghai Composite: 38.46 or +1.29% to 3015.48

      • Shenzhen Composite: 39.43 or +2.35% to 1716.58

      • ASX200: 10.20 or +0.13% to 7663.00

      • KOSPI: (22.03) or (0.83%) to 2625.05

      • SENSEX: 321.27 or +0.44% to 73111.41

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.41) or (0.27%) to 150.3060

      • $-KRW: (2.73) or (0.21%) to 1329.6500

      • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.15% to 0.6553

      • $-INR: +0.03 or +0.03% to 82.8862

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 7.1974

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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