Mar 03 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for positive start to Monday trade. Nikkei and Hang Seng futures pointing to mild gains on the open. ASX flat in initial trade. S&P 500 futures flat after index capped off another positive week. Australian yield curve bull steepening, tracking Friday's Treasury rally in the wake of softer US data. FX markets steady following another lackluster week of price action. Gold steady after recording best week in two months. Crude unchanged near highest since Nov-2023. Bitcoin nearing record high after logging best week since Mar-2023.
China National People's Congress kicks off Tuesday. Previews note 2024 growth target to remain around 5% but also expectations of modest policy steps that may again underwhelm hopes for meaningful stimulus. PBOC seen continuing with gradual easing while fiscal policies geared towards new economy sectors. State Council on Friday approved plans to produce more high quality consumer goods, though analysts noted scale of potential subsides to homebuyers may disappoint.
BOJ Governor Ueda to speak on Tuesday after he appeared walked back hawkish remarks from board member Takata last week. Consensus remains for an April rate hike (though March also considered possibility). More attention likely to be on rate path beyond NIRP exit after senior policymakers stressed financial conditions to remain accommodative). Positioning data shows speculative yen shorts near six-year highs, setting FX markets up for potentially volatile aftermath to the decision.
Recent Treasury curve bull steepening being viewed as a positive for risk appetite following last week's in-line US core PCE index. With markets now aligned with Fed's projection of three rate cuts in 2024, strategists note potential for rate repricing to go either way. Doves point to still intact disinflation trajectory while hawks cite risk from sticky services inflation. Fed officials sounding cautious note lately, stressing need to see more data before weighing rate cuts.
Pre-open Company News:
3182.MK -- Genting downgraded to hold from buy at Affin Hwang Investment Bank
China Ministry of Agriculture: weekly wholesale livestock and poultry prices (23-Feb to 29-Feb)
2009.HK -- BBMG corp announces proposed spinoff and separate listing of a publicly traded REIT on Shanghai Stock Exchange
4751.JP -- CyberAgent upgraded to buy from neutral at Nomura
002050.CH -- Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls downgraded to hold from buy at Daiwa
VC2.SP -- Olam Group subsidiary Olam Agri acquires Avisen SARL for €17.0M (SG$24.8M)
522.HK -- ASMPT upgraded to outperform from neutral at CCB International
EB5.SP -- First Resources (Singapore) downgraded to hold from buy at Maybank Investment Bank
GNX.AU -- Genex Power receives non-binding takeover proposal from Electric Power Development Co., Ltd at A$0.275/share in cash
^TTNASIA -- Fed Chair Powell testimony, central bank meetings, and CPI among this week's highlights:
9020.JP -- East Japan Railway downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA
388.HK -- Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing upgraded to strong recommend from recommend at Founder Securities
6660.HK -- AIM Vaccine completes on-site work of phase III clinical trials for 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine
2145.HK -- Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetics upgraded to strong recommend at Founder Securities
1876.HK -- Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC upgraded to outperform at ICBC International
On Deck:
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
Asia Cement (China) Holdings (743.HK)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Building Approvals SA M/M; consensus
Market Data:
Gold (Apr 24): ($1.40) or (0.07%) to $2094.30
WTI Crude (Apr 24): +$0.04 or +0.05% to $80.01
$-¥: (0.02) or (0.01%) to 150.1010
$-KRW: (1.03) or (0.08%) to 1330.9000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 0.6526
$-INR: +0.00 or +0.00% to 82.8484
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.1958
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