Mar 06 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to higher. Belgium +0.9%, The Netherlands and Spain +0.8% lead outperformers, whilst Denmark (0.4%) and Norway (0.3%) lead underperformers.
Comments from Fed Chair Powell, as expected. Said made progress on inflation but needs to be confident it is moving sustainably to target before cutting rates. Remarks come against backdrop of hawkish repricing as markets dial back rate cut expectations amid resilient growth and sticky inflation risks. Market particularly interested in getting any color on upcoming dot plot now that it is largely in with the Fed's 75 bp of easing from December meeting.
UK Budget dominates European macro calendar. No surprises with lot of the headlines already leaked, with cut in national insurance by 2% the main announcement. Has fueled speculation of May election. Kiel Institute and Ifo Institute cut German growth forecasts. Elsewhere, UK press talks up M&A pipeline for Europe.
On a light macro-calendar, Germany Jan Trade Balance surplus beats €27.5B vs consensus €21.5B and prior €22.2B, led by increase in exports up +6.3% vs 1.5% expected. Feb Construction PMI better than expected 39.1 vs consensus 38.0 and above from prior 36.3. Eurozone Jan Retail Sales in line with forecast m/m +0.1% and up from prior revised (0.6%) from (1.1%), though still down (1.0%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%) and prior revised (0.5%) from (0.8%).
On the reporting front, DACHs names kicked off the session with DHL Group (DHL.GR), Symrise (SY1.GR) and Addiko Bank (ADKO.AV) reporting FY/Q1 numbers. In France, SCOR SE (SCR.FP) and Dassault Aviation (AM.FP) issued end-of-year numbers, with the latter hiking dividend by 12% to €3.37/share and guiding FY24 revenue to the €6.00B range. In Southern Europe, ACEA (ACE.IM) reported FY earnings and approved the 2024-2028 business plan, and Indra (ISM) issued its strategic plan for 2024-2026 with a vision to 2030. In the Nordics, Sampo Group (SAMPO.FH), Bavarian (BAVA.DC), Norse Atlantic (NORSE.NO), and Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO) updated investors with their latest numbers. In Belgium, Elia Group (ELI.BB) issued FY earnings and raised dividend by 4.2% y/y. In the UK, ConvaTec Group (CTEC.LN), Tullow Oil (TLW.LN), Capita (CPI.LN), Breedon Group (BREE.LN), Legal & General Group (LGEN.LN), Lancashire Holdings (LRE.LN) and Quilter (QLT.LN) updated investors with their latest numbers. On the syndicate calendar, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN) holders Blackstone (BX) and Thomson Reuters (TRI.CN) placed ~15.9M shares at 8,980p/share while Antler sold 21.5M ordinary shares or 4.4% of Baltic Classifieds Group (BCG.LN) share capital, at a price of 220p/sh raising gross proceeds of £47.3M. On the M&A newsflow, press reports suggest Fincantieri (FCT.IM) in talks to buy Wass unit from Leonardo (LDO.IM).
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 4-Feb to 8-Feb attached) Merck (MRK.GR), Continental (CON.GR), Brenntag (BNR.GR), Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR), GEA Group (G1A.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), Vivendi (VIV.FP), Eurazeo (RF.FP), SPIE (SPIE.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP), Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW.IM), Amplifon (AMP.IM), Azimut (AZM.IM), Harbour Energy (HBR.LN), Aviva (AV.LN), Rentokil Initial (RTO.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), Admiral Group (ADM.LN) and Spirax-Sarco Engineering (SPX.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Jan factory orders, Switzerland Feb unemployment rate, Norway Jan manufacturing production, Denmark Jan manufacturing production, UK Feb house price index - Halifax, Greece Q4 GDP.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +1.36%, Chemicals +1.30%, Energy+1.12%, Financial Svcs +1.09%, Retail +1.08%, Travel & Leisure +0.75%, Basic Resources +0.70%, Utilities +0.54%,
Underperformers:
Media (0.54%), Autos & Parts (0.28%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.05%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.05%), Health Care (0.01%), Telecom +0.03%, Insurance +0.12%, Real Estate +0.12%, Construct & Mtls +0.19%, Consumer Products and Services +0.20%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.27%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
"Von der Leyen's policies endanger our competitiveness" - Handelblatt
Von der Leyen endorses EPP's Rwanda plan to offshore asylum - euobserver
EU's conservatives take a victory lap, months ahead of European election - Politico
From migration crackdown to Green Deal overhaul: Key takeaways from the EPP manifesto - Euronews
UK
Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance, abolishes non-dom status and raises child benefit threshold - The Guardian, The Telegraph, Sky news
The Budget showed Labour is setting the political rhythm - The new statesman
Spring Budget 2024: initial IFS response - IFS
CBI responds to Spring Budget 2024 - CBI release
UK to Sell £265 Billion Debt, Broadly Matching Market Estimates - Bloomberg
Office for Budget Responsibility latest economic and fiscal forecast - release
France
Germany
Germany sees welcome jump in exports for January - DW
Sweden
Swedish PM travels to US as NATO accession nears - Reuters
The Netherlands
etherlands Seeks to Prevent ASML Expansion Abroad, Report Says - Bloomberg
Greece
Three new bills, in addition to the new fiscal framework, are being prepared for submission to Parliament within 2024 - ekathimerini
Greece and Ireland discuss bilateral relations - ekathimerini
Ireland
National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will complete its wind-down by the end of 2025 - RTE
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+35.1% IMM.LN (ImmuPharma £0.01, -0.00) -- financial, business and portfolio update
+19.9% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, +0.01) -- project update
+11.5% PFD.LN (Premier Foods £1.58, +0.16) -- to suspend pension deficit contribution payments from 1-Apr-24
+9.2% LSL.LN (LSL Property Services £2.67, +0.22) -- trading update
+8.2% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €6.53, +0.50) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+8.1% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €30.13, +2.20) -- earnings
+6.9% FCT.IM (Fincantieri €0.50, +0.03) -- Fincantieri in talks to buy Wass unit from Leonardo (LDO.IM) - Milano Finanza, seemingly citing sources
+6.6% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK115.30, +7.10) -- additional seven year orphan drug exclusivity period for TARPEYO
+6.5% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €30.04, +1.86) -- follow-through
+6.5% SY1.GR (Symrise €101.05, +6.31) -- earnings
+6.3% NOS.PL (NOS SGPS €3.52, +0.21) -- earnings
+6.3% DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group €184.60, +11.10) -- earnings
+5.9% NICL.LN (Nichols £10.80, +0.60) -- earnings
+5.9% IPH.FP (Innate Pharma €2.26, +0.13) -- first patient dosed in Phase 1/2 study of IPH6501
+5.8% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK157.00, +8.75) -- earnings
+5.5% A5G.ID (AIB Group €4.52, +0.24) -- earnings
+5.5% SMHN.GR (SÜSS MicroTec €39.00, +2.10) -- added to TecDAX
+5.4% CTEC.LN (ConvaTec Group £2.70, +0.14) -- earnings
+5.4% CTEC.LN (ConvaTec Group £2.70, +0.14) -- earnings
+4.9% HPHA.GR (Heidelberg Pharma €3.16, +0.15) -- to present efficacy data at AACR Meeting 2024
+3.8% BORR.NO (Borr Drilling NOK65.75, +2.40) -- Chairman Tor Olav Trøim discloses purchase of 200K shares at an average price of $5.9962 per share
+3.8% ONT.LN (Oxford Nanopore Technologies £1.27, +0.05) -- earnings
+3.7% BREE.LN (Breedon Group £3.99, +0.14) -- earnings; acquires BMC Enterprises Inc. for EV of $300M (£238.1M)
+3.5% DOV.IM (doValue €1.93, +0.07) -- servicing agreement
+3.4% MSON.B.SS (Midsona SEK7.28, +0.24) -- presents new financial targets and strategy
+3.1% EUZ.GR (Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik €38.74, +1.16) -- added to TecDAX
+3.1% LMP.LN (LondonMetric Property £1.91, +0.06) -- completes merger with LXi REIT plc; issues company update
Trading Lower:
-60.0% ESKN.LN (Esken Ltd. £0.00, -0.00) -- restructuring
-22.9% CPI.LN (Capita £0.16, -0.05) -- earnings
-17.2% GFG.GR (Global Fashion Group €0.32, -0.06) -- earnings
-13.6% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK143.90, -22.40) -- earnings
-12.6% BRNK.GR (Branicks Group €1.20, -0.16) -- postpones publication 2023 financial statements; extension of terms of promissory note loans due in 2024
-12.6% GRF.SM (Grifols €6.68, -0.98) -- Moody's places B2 corporate family rating and other certain ratings on review for downgrade
-8.3% CTT.SS (CTT Systems SEK279.00, -25.00) -- Collins Aerospace divests shareholdings
-8.1% STG.DC (Scandinavian Tobacco Group DKK121.30, -10.30) -- earnings
-6.4% NYXH.BB (Nyxoah €12.65, -0.90) -- earnings
-6.0% DHL.GR (DHL Group €39.47, -2.49) -- earnings; DHL Group has no interest in DB Schenker - CNBC interview with CEO
-5.8% ELHA.GA (ElvalHalcor Hellenic Copper & Aluminium Industry €2.11, -0.13) -- earnings
-5.2% AM.FP (Dassault Aviation €184.30, -10.00) -- earnings
-4.4% IBST.LN (Ibstock £1.53, -0.07) -- earnings
-4.0% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.55, -0.02) -- update on data from early access programs
-2.9% RAA.GR (Rational €704.50, -21.50) -- deleted from the MDAX
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: CTP (CTPNV.NL), Azelis Group (AZE.BB)
DACHs: Merck (MRK.GR), Continental (CON.GR), Brenntag (BNR.GR), Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR), GEA Group (G1A.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), GFT Technologies (GFT.GR), Dragerwerk & Co. (DRW3.GR), MLP (MLP.GR), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBB.GR), Avolta (AVOL.SW), Bachem (BANB.SW), SFS Group (SFSN.SW), Kardex (KARN.SW), Zumtobel (ZAG.AV), UNIQA Insurance (UQA.AV)
France: Vivendi (VIV.FP), Eurazeo (RF.FP), SPIE (SPIE.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP), Rubis (RUI.FP), STEF (STF.FP), Savencia (SAVE.FP), Sword Group (SWP.FP)
Nordics: TORM (TRMD.A.DC), Cambi (CAMBI.NO), Relais Group(RAP1V.FH), Rapala VMC (RAP1V.FH)
Southern Europe: Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW.IM), Amplifon (AMP.IM), Azimut (AZM.IM), Tinexta (TNXT.IM), Fincantieri (FCT.IM), Ascopiave (ASC.IM), Digital Bros (DIB.IM), Eurobank Ergasias Services (EUROB.GA), Alpha Services (ALPHA.GA)
UK: Harbour Energy (HBR.LN), Aviva (AV.LN), Rentokil Initial (RTO.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), Admiral Group (ADM.LN), Spirax-Sarco Engineering (SPX.LN), Entain (ENT.LN), Beazley (BEZ.LN), Darktrace (DARK.LN), ITV (ITV.LN), Grafton (GFTU.LN), PageGroup (PAGE.LN), Coats Group (COA.LN), Just Group (JUST.LN), Elementis (ELM.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Robert Walters (RWA.LN), Brooks MacDonald (BRK.LN), Tt Electronics (TTG.LN), Funding Circle (FCH.LN), Hansard Global (HSD.LN)
Trading Update: Rubis (RUI.FP)
Traffic: SAS (SAS.SS)
CMD/events: Telecom Italia (TIT.IM), Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC), Securitas (SECU.B.SS), Tinexta (TNXT.IM)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Jan Retail Sales (1.0%) y/y vs cons (1.3%) and prior revised (0.5%) from (0.8%); +0.1% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior revised (0.6%) from (1.1%)
UK Feb Construction PMI 49.7 vs consensus 49.0 and prior 48.8
Ireland Feb Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs consensus 4.6% and prior 4.5%
Germany
Jan Trade Balance €27.5B vs consensus €21.5B and prior €22.2B
Feb Construction PMI 39.1 vs consensus 38.0 and prior 36.3
GDP forecast 2024 +0.2% vs prior estimate +0.9%, 2025 +1.5% from +1.3% - Ifo
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): +$2.42 or +3.10% to $80.57
€-$ +0.0047 or +0.43% to 1.0905
£-$ +0.0042 or +0.33% to 1.2747
€-£ +0.0009 to 0.8554
S&P 500 +0.76%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: (0.70%)
DAX: +5.76%
CAC: +5.46%
MIB: +9.94%
Stoxx 600: +4.01%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE