Mar 07 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets mostly closed higher with pan-European indices ending around the best levels of the session. Shares reversed any modest initial declines, with pan-European indices then gradually extending gains, getting a further boost from the ECB policy decision and staff projections, before becoming range-bound onto the close.
Greece (0.5%), Austria, Portugal both (0.1%) and Norway, Switzerland both +0.2% led underperformers, with Denmark +5.7%, Netherlands +1.4% and Spain +1.3% leading outperformers
ECB interest rate decision saw it keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected. Among estimate changes made by ECB staff, they revised down inflation projection, in particular for 2024, to +2.3%, and also revised down their growth projection for 2024 to +0.6%
Serbia Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, as expected. Other central bankers speaking included Bank of Spain's de Cos spoke at jointly organize conf (through Fri). BOE's Benford spoke at the Big Data & AI World conf and Bundesbank's Balz spoke at event jointly organised by Konrad Adenauer Foundation and FIEL
Halifax data saw UK house prices rise for the fifth consecutive month in Feb, though an executive struck a note of caution saying there remains a possibility that there could be a slowdown in the housing market this year. Other economic releases included Germany Jan factory orders, Switzerland Feb unemployment rate and Denmark/Norway Jan manufacturing production
In UK, analysis and debate of yesterday's budget continued.
On the Continent, European People's Party's Congress attracted EU commissioners, MEPs and PMs from across the region as Ursula von der Leyen was formally endorsed as candidate for EU Commission President, in her ambition for a second five-year term, for which she'll need the support of member countries and the EU Parliament. Meeting of heads of government of the German states in Berlin. The afternoon meeting includes Chancellor Scholz, and will focus on migration and refugee policy. A post meeting press conf. is scheduled. EU's Simson delivered a keynote speech and participated in a panel discussion at the Offshore Norge's Annual Conf. EU's Competitive Council discussed a report on the advance of the works to reach an agreement on the late payment regulation.
Divisions remain between EU countries on the Middle East as Council President Michel attempts to get the 27 EU leaders to agree common language on the war at next meeting on 21/22-Mar.
In Nordics, Norway's PM Støre gave the opening speech at a seminar organized by NIF, Norsk Tipping and Talent Norway, whilst the country's Minister of Energy Aasland participated in a senior management conf. for the Nordic renewables industry
Amongst the M&A news flow, Nationwide Building Society announces offer for Virgin Money UK in deal worth ~£2.9B, Iberdrola (IBE.SM) makes a preliminary non-binding offer to acquire remainder of Avangrid (AGR) for $34.25/share in cash and Telefónica (TEF.SM) to make public delisting acquisition offer to shareholders of Telefónica Deutschland Holding (O2D.GR)
Among some of the region's leading companies that saw more muted (percentage change) share price reaction to earnings/updates included Aviva (AV.LN) FY net income £1.11B vs year-ago (£1.03B), Eurazeo (RF.FP) FY net income €1.82B vs FactSet €299.2M [3 est, €108.1-500M], raises dividend +10% y/y, announces launch of the new €200M share buyback program for 2024 and Grafton Group (GFTU.LN) FY EPS 77.9p vs FactSet 72.1p [10 est, 61.4-76.0p], says profitability in the first two months was in line with our expectations. Also, Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR) Q4 EPS €0.06 vs FactSet €0.14 [4 est, (€0.19)-0.39]; expects FY24 adj EBIT to be on the same level as in 2023, the company also in the headlines as strikes cripple air and rail travel across Germany, Continental (CON.GR) FY net income €1.16B vs consensus €1.41B; hikes di by ~47% and guides FY24, SFS Group (SFSN.SW) FY net income FY net income CHF268.5M vs FactSet CHF269.4M [8 est, CHF258.5-280.8M], expects FY24 EBIT margin around previous year level and Melrose Industries (MRO.LN) FY EPS from cont. ops 18.7p ex-items vs FactSet 16.8p [11 est, 11.4-18.7p], provides 2024 guidance.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Health Care +2.31%, Technology +2.26%, Basic Resources +1.58%, Construct & Mtls +1.42%, Real Estate+1.39%, Chemicals +1.23%, Utilities +1.02%
Underperformers:
Travel & Leisure (0.49%), Telecom (0.24%), Oil & Gas (0.11%), Autos & Parts (0.07%), Banks +0.11%, Retail +0.20%, Media +0.38%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.58%, Food & Beverage +0.60%, Financial Svcs +0.64%, Insurance +0.76%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.88%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Central Banks:
ECB monetary policy decision - press release; Staff projection GDP 2024 +0.6% vs prior forecast +0.8%, 2025 +1.5% unchanged and 2026 +1.5% vs prior +1.6%; inflation 2024 +2.3% vs prior +2.7%, 2025 +2.0% vs prior +2.1% and 2026 +1.9%, unchanged - release
BOE releases Feb Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey; One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations declined further - release
Serbia Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged - release
Finland:
Working group prepares a growth strategy for the financial sector - release
Ireland:
All sides urge people to vote in tomorrow's referendums amid concern that there could be a low turnout - RTE
Norway
Will join the letter of intent on support to Ukraine in air defense against aircraft and missiles - release
Portugal:
Sunday's general election dominated by anger over corruption and country's economy - Reuters; Poll tracker - CNN Portugal; opinion poll - cm
UK:
Chancellor reverses the policy priorities of the 2010s, rehashes its austerity, and records the first ever polling-day-to-polling-day fall in living standards - Resolution Foundation assessment on yesterday's budget
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Post Budget presentation - opening remarks
Chancellor leaves door open to more tax cuts - FT
Hunt has refused to rule out the possibility of a May election - LBC
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+55.7% FCH.LN (Funding Circle Holdings) -- FY net income £168.2M, +8% vs year-ago £155.8M; to launch an up to £25M share buyback program
+34.8% VMUK.LN (Virgin Money UK) -- Nationwide Building Society announces 218p/share offer for Virgin Money UK in deal worth ~£2.9B
+18.2% RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial) -- FY EPS 23.1p vs consensus 22.3p; hikes divi by 15%; raises expectations for annual pre-tax synergies from the Terminix integration
+14.2% BANB.SW (Bachem Holding) -- FY net income CHF111.9M vs FactSet CHF106.5M [8 est, CHF100.9-110.9M]; raises dividend +6.7%; provides 2024 guidance
+12.0% ITV.LN (ITV)
FY adj EPS 7.8p vs FactSet 8.0p [10 est, 7.8-8.4p]; 2026 KPI targets on track; will commence up to £235M share buyback program
upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
+9.7% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank) -- FY pretax income €90M vs preliminary €90M and FactSet €91.6M
+9.6% RAP1V.FH (Rapala VMC) -- FY EPS (€0.19) vs FactSet (€0.09) [2 est, (€0.10)-(0.07)]
+9.0% COA.LN (Coats Group) -- FY adjusted EPS $0.08 vs FactSet $0.08 [8 est, $0.07-0.08], expects to make good progress in 2024 underpinned by modest revenue growth, with a weighting to H2
+8.3% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk)
provides progress update on its Strategic Aspirations 2025 - CMD
discloses data from phase 1 trial of GLP-1 and amylin co-agonist amycretin
+7.2% ONT.LN (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) -- upgraded to hold from sell at Stifel
+6.3% AMP.IM (Amplifon) -- Q4 adj EPS €0.28 vs consensus €0.27, guides FY24; announces new 10% buyback program
+6.0% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy) -- FY23 reserves and FY24 production update
+5.9% TTG.LN (TT Electronics) -- FY adjusted EPS 19.2p vs FactSet 18.2p [8 est, 17.7-18.7p], on track to deliver 10% group operating margin in 2024
+5.9% SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- FY adjusted net income €344.0M vs FactSet €337.1M [8 est, €314-353.9M]
+5.7% ELIOR.FP (Elior Group) -- discloses terms of share buyback progamm
+5.0% DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- final FY earnings in line with preliminary release: EPS €5.86 vs FactSet €4.97 [5 est, €4.55-5.32]
+5.0% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience -- positive interim results from dose escalation portion of phase 1 study of alg.APV-527 in solid Tumors expressing Tumor antigen 5T4
+5.0% AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
+5.0% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group) -- upgraded to buy from add at Peel Hunt
+4.9% BLV.FP (Believe) -- Warner Music Group was party indicating interest in Believe at at least €17/share
+4.6% ROVI.SM (Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi, S.A.) -- has engaged Lazard to assess potential strategic alternatives
+4.5% SPX.LN (Spirax Group) -- FY adj EPS 311.8p vs consensus 312.0p; return to organic sales growth and adj operating profit margin progress expected in 2024
+3.8% DARK.LN (Darktrace) -- H1 EPS $0.08 vs FactSet $0.08 [3 est, $0.07-0.09]; now expects FY adj. EBITDA margin at least 21.0% vs prior between 18.0-20.0%
+2.7% KIE.LN (Kier Group) -- H1 adj. EPS 8.7p vs year-ago 8.5p; FactSet 8.6p [1 est]; declares interim dividend of 1.67p/share
+2.6% MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- FY EPS €3.75 vs year-ago €1.43
+2.5% CGG.FP (CGG) -- final FY earnings inline with prelim. release: Adj. EBITDA $400M vs guidance $390-400M
On earnings/updates: CTPNV.NA (CTP), VIJ.GR (Viemed Healthcare), AVOL.SW (Avolta), KARN.SW (Kardex Holding), RF.FP (Eurazeo), TRMD.A.DC (TORM), GET.FP (Getlink), AV.LN (Aviva), RWA.LN (Robert Walters), GFTU.LN (Grafton Group) and reversing initial declines MRK.GR (Merck KGaA), FIA1S.FH (Finnair), PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media)
Notable Decliners
-23.9% SAS.SS (SAS) -- Q1 net income (SEK1.45B) vs year-ago (SEK2.71B), reaffirms there'll be no value for existing shareholders as a result of Chapter 11 process; February traffic +8% y/y
-23.6% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- approves 2024-2026 "Free to Run" industrial plan
-23.3% TEP.FP (Teleperformance) -- FY net income €602M vs FactSet €798.9M [16 est, €613.5-917M]
-13.3% BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- Q4 EPS €1.23 vs FactSet €1.08; guides 2024 EBIT of €430-475M vs FactSet €492.24M
-10.6% PTSB.ID (Permanent TSB Group Holdings) -- FY Pretax income €79M vs FactSet €91.2M, provides 2024 outlook
-10.0% DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- FY net income €209M vs FactSet €149.3M [10 est, €123.1-212.7M]
-8.3% INTRUM.SS (Intrum) -- downgraded to sell from hold at Arctic Securities
-7.7% GFT.GR (GFT Technologies) -- FY Adj EBIT €73.3M vs guidance €74-76M, FactSet €70.2M [5 est, €67.1-74.2M], 2024 guidance in line with consensus
-7.4% JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins) -- FY net income attributable €756M, raises dividend +21.6% y/y; outlook muted
-4.7% ENT.LN (Entain) -- FY Adj. EPS 44.2p vs FactSet 41.2p [18 est, 37.8-44.9p]; YTD the group is trading in line with expectations
-4.5% BNR.GR (Brenntag) -- FY EPS €4.73 vs consensus €4.97; hikes divi by 5% and guides FY24
-4.5% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- FY net income €26.2M vs FactSet €24.6M [15 est, €17.8-34.5M]
-3.6% ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings) -- Q4 adjusted net income €215.8M vs FactSet €191M, guides 2024, 2025, 2026
-3.1% SAVE.SS (Nordnet) -- downgraded to hold from buy at SEB
-3.1% TYMN.LN (Tyman) -- FY operating profit £60.2M vs FactSet £72.0M [6 est, £64.4-84M]
-3.1% NEXI.IM (Nexi) -- FY normalized net income €711.8M vs FactSet €726.1M; To proposes up to €500M share buy-back program; guides 2024; shares recerse initial gains
-3.0% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners) -- February trading update
-2.9% KSC.GR (KPS)
reports delayed FY (2022/2023) earnings, Q1 of FY23/24 and FY guidance
to place up to 3.7M new shares at €1.15/share with selected investors (including existing major shareholders)
-2.7% G1A.GR (GEA Group) -- FY EPS €2.56 ex-items vs consensus €2.30, raises dividend, guides 2024; shares recers initial gains
-2.6% GTT.FP (Gaztransport & Technigaz) -- downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg
-2.5% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- downgraded to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
On earnings/updates: BRK.LN (Brooks MacDonald Group), ZAG.AV (Zumtobel Group), LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa), CON.GR (Continental), MRO.LN (Melrose Industries), BEZ.LN (Beazley), HBR.LN (Harbour Energy), ELIS.FP (Elis), AZE.BB (Azelis Group), ADM.LN (Admiral Group) and reversing initial gains ELM.LN (Elementis), GLJ.GR (GRENKE), IR5B.ID (Irish Continental Group), AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E.), UQA.AV (UNIQA Insurance Group), UCG.IM (UniCredit)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Mithra Pharmaceuticals (MITRA.BB)
DACHs: Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW), mobilezone (MOZN.SW), Coltene (CLTN.SW), Mikron (MIKN.SW), Orell Füssli (OFN.SW), JDC Group (JDC.GR)
Nordics: Asetek (ASTK.NO)
UK/Ireland: Informa (INF.LN), Stelrad Group (SRAD.LN), FBD Holdings (EG7.ID)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Feb unemployment rate (sa) 2.2% vs consensus 2.2%, prior 2.2%; (nsa) 2.4% vs consensus 2.6%, prior 2.5%
Germany Jan factory orders (11.3%) m/m vs consensus (6.0%), prior revised +12.0% from +8.9%
UK Feb house price index +1.7% y/y vs consensus +2.3%, prior revised +2.3% from +2.5% - Halifax release
Denmark Jan manufacturing production (3.5%) m/m vs consensus (3.8%), prior (0.3%) from +5.7%
Norway Jan manufacturing production 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.6%, prior +0.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): ($0.28) or (0.35%) to $78.85
€-$ +0.0036 or +0.33% to 1.0933
£-$ +0.0059 or +0.46% to 1.2791
€-£ (0.0005) to 0.8550
S&P 500 +0.86%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: (0.53%)
DAX: +6.51%
CAC: +6.27%
MIB: +10.16%
Stoxx 600: +5.05%
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