Mar 14 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower reversing morning positive trading. CAC bucked the trend into the close. Media, consumer product & service, oil & gas best performers; basic resources, real estate, food, beverage & tobacco the main laggards. Treasuries notably weaker with some curve steepening following this morning's hotter PPI report. Yields backing up for a fourth straight session with the 10Y yield now up ~20bp WTD). Bund up 6bps to 2.41 and Gilts up ~9bps to 4.11%. Dollar index up 0.5%. Gold down 0.8%. Bitcoin futures down 2.3%. WTI crude up 1.8%.
No major developments in Europe. Focus on ECB speak with Stournaras saying central bank must cut rates twice before summer break, while chief economist Lane said ECB must take its time to get interest rate cuts right. Knot expects cuts in June, September and December. More trouble for Spain PM Sanchez as Catalonia's regional government called a snap election for 12-May, almost a year ahead of schedule. UK housing market showed signs of picking up in February based on RICS survey. No market-moving macroeconomic releases out of Europe today; markets reacting to hotter US inflation data. Headline and core PPI hotter than expected, while annualized PPI hottest since September.
On a busy reporting front, a slew of DACH names kicked off the session, with K+S (SDF.GR), RWE (RWE.GR), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR), SAF-HOLLAND (SFQ.GR), Lanxess (LXS.GR) and RTL Group (RRTL.GR) posting their earnings before the open; in the banking sector, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) issued its FY23 annual report and provided some comments on outlook. Elsewhere, bioMerieux (BIM.FP) issued its lates numbers; out of the UK, Deliveroo (ROO.LN), Shell Plc (SHEL.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), Trainline (TRN.LN), Vistry Group (VTY.LN) amidst the companies that published updates
In M&A news, KKR (KKR) to launch voluntary public takeover offer to all shareholders of Encavis (ECV.GR) at €17.50 per share in cash with total equity value ~ €2.8B. In the UK, AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) acquired Amolyt Pharma for $800M upfront at deal closing plus additional contingent payment of $250M payable upon achievement of specified regulatory milestones. Ferrovial (FER.SM) agrees to acquire a 24% stake in IRB Infrastructure Trust (IRBIT.IN) from GIC for a total investment of ~€740M. Media reports Entain (ENT.LN) is exploring possible sale of several overseas brands; Spain's ACS SA (ACS.SM) received offers from Serveo, ISS and the Pacific fund for Clece.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Media +0.77%, Consumer Products and Services +0.54%, Oil & Gas+0.41%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.15%, Retail +0.01%, Health Care (0.07%), Utilities (0.08%)
Underperformers:
Basic Resources (1.52%), Real Estate (0.86%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.76%), Banks (0.67%), Construct & Mtls (0.61%), Technology (0.52%), Travel & Leisure (0.50%), Autos & Parts (0.49%), Telecom (0.41%), Financial Svcs (0.40%), Chemicals (0.33%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.30%)
Macro:
UK:
Central Banks:
Bank of England to start cutting in Q3 but strong chance of Q2 move (Reuters poll)
ECB's Knot sees rate cuts in June, September and December
ECB's Stournaras says central bank must cut rates twice before summer break (Bloomberg)
ECB's Muller says more information needed before rates can be cut - wires
Germany:
Germany is only halfway through property crisis, says Commerzbank real estate boss (Reuters)
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Italy's bond spread sinks to 2-year low as economy outshines Germany (FT)
Spain:
The Netherlands:
Wilders willing to forgo Dutch premiership to advance coalition talks (Bloomberg)
Denmark:
Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move (Politico)
Norway:
Government is launching an action plan for a circular economy - release
Greece:
EU's €7.4B package for Egypt to manage migration is vital for the wider region says Greece - Kathimerini
Sweden:
Swedish Agency for Public Management assignment to create the conditions for new nuclear power - release
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+25.9% ABDX.LN (Abingdon Health £0.09, +0.02) -- H1 earnings
+25.3% ECV.GR (Encavis AG €16.85, +3.40) -- KKR to launch voluntary public takeover offer to all shareholders of Encavis at €17.50 per share in cash; prelim FY earnings
+14.9% TRN.LN (Trainline £3.76, +0.49) -- trading update
+14.5% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.00, -0.00) -- enters manufacturing licence agreement for initial period of five years
+12.8% ETP.LN (Eneraqua Technologies £0.44, +0.05) -- trading update
+12.4% IPF.LN (International Personal Finance £1.13, +0.13) -- FY earnings; reinstated buy at Peel Hunt and Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+10.3% RENX.LN (Renalytix £0.32, +0.03) -- KidneyIntelX included in final KDIGO 2024 clinical guideline for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)
+8.8% RUSTA.SS (Rusta SEK73.98, +5.98) -- Q3 earnings
+7.7% BONEX.SS (BONESUPPORT HOLDING SEK236.40, +16.80) -- Cerament G receives FDA clearance for open fractures
+6.7% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £1.57, +0.10) -- auditor requires more time to complete its audit process; sees short delay to release of FY results
+6.3% OTL.NO (Odfjell Technology NOK64.00, +3.80) -- platform drilling contract with Equinor
+5.5% FRU.GR (Multitude €4.60, +0.24) -- prelim FY earnings
+5.5% MUM.GR (Mensch & Maschine Software €51.40, +2.70) -- FY earnings
+4.7% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €441.30, +20.00) -- FY earnings
+4.2% DIB.IM (Digital Bros €8.41, +0.33) -- H1 earnings
+4.1% BKS.LN (Beeks Financial Cloud Group £1.79, +0.07) -- JSE has extended contract for Exchange Cloud
+4.1% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK4.80, +0.19) -- receives $75M in support from DOE and state of Michigan for electrolyser production facility
+3.5% GEMD.LN (Gem Diamonds £0.10, -0.00) -- FY earnings; reinstated buy at Peel Hunt and Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+3.2% IGG.LN (IG Group Holdings £7.28, +0.23) -- Q3 revenue; CFO to step down
+2.9% DFV.GR (DFV Deutsche Familienversicherung €6.32, +0.18) -- FY earnings; reinstated buy at Peel Hunt and Shore Capital Stockbrokers
Notable Decliners
-20.0% BLVN.LN (Bowleven £0.00, -0.00) -- open offer to raise £1.6M (~$2M)
-15.3% BFIT.NA (Basic-Fit €19.95, -3.61) -- FY earnings
-15.0% OSB.LN (OSB Group £3.92, -0.69) -- FY earnings; £50M share buyback
-14.5% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF0.05, -0.01) -- FY earnings
-14.1% OBD.LN (Oxford BioDynamics £0.09, -0.01) -- raises £9.9M from placing, to issue 89.2M new ordinary shares at 9p/share
-10.6% GENO.SS (Genovis SEK34.80, -4.20) -- Carthesian Therapeutics terminated license agreement
-7.1% RST.LN (Restore £2.17, -0.17) -- FY earnings; Peel Hunt upgrade
-6.8% RRTL.GR (RTL Group €31.04, -2.28) -- FY earnings
-6.5% LXS.GR (Lanxess €24.45, -1.69) -- Q4 earnings
-5.5% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €1.01, -0.06) -- FY earnings
-5.3% SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding CHF630.60, -35.40) -- FY earnings
-4.4% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK2.26, -0.11) -- Q3 eanrings
-4.1% GTT.FP (Gaztransport & Technigaz €136.70, -5.80) -- holder ENGIE places 2M shares at €137/share through Morgan Stanley and Natixis
-2.9% ENI.IM (Eni €14.55, -0.43) -- confirms 2023 earnings; launches third tranche of share buyback program; presents 2024-27 Plan; provides 2024 guidance - CMD
-2.9% RWE.GR (RWE €30.82, -0.92) -- confirms preliminary FY earnings
-2.8% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €105.48, -3.02) -- prelim FY earnings
-2.4% ALHAF.FP (Haffner Energy €0.46, -0.01) -- and Hexas sign non-exclusive agreement for production of renewable energy from biomass
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Sif Holding (SIFG.NA)
DACHs: Vonovia (VNA.GR), Bechtle (BC8.GR), HelloFresh (HFG.GR), Salzgitter (SZG.GR), KHD Humboldt Wedag International (KWG.GR), Lenzing (LNZ.AV), StarragTornos (STGN.SW), Interroll Holding (INRN.SW)
Nordics: Tivoli (TIV.DC), Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC)
Southern Europe: A2A (A2A.IM), DiaSorin (DIA.IM), Saras (SRS.IM), Pharmanutra (PHN.IM)
UK: Volution Group (FAN.LN)
Trading Update: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Berkeley Group (BKG.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Feb PPI (2.0%) y/y vs consensus (2.3%) and prior (2.3%); +0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior (0.5%)
Spain Feb CPI +2.8% y/y vs preliminary +2.8%; +0.4% m/m vs preliminary +0.3%
EU Harmonised: +2.9% y/y vs preliminary +2.9%; +0.4% m/m vs preliminary +0.4%
Sweden Feb CPI +4.5% y/y vs consensus +4.7% and prior +5.4%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.1%
Finland Feb CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.1% and prior +3.3%; +0.5% m/m vs prior +0.3%
Ireland Feb CPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.6% and prior +4.1%; +1.0% m/m vs consensus +1.0% and prior (1.3%)
EU Harmonised: +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +2.2%; +1.1% vs m/m preliminary +0.9%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 24): +$1.39 or +1.74% to $81.11
€-$ (0.0056) or (0.51%) to 1.0893
£-$ (0.0044) or (0.34%) to 1.2753
€-£ (0.0018) to 0.8539
S&P 500 (0.29%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +0.13%
DAX: +7.11%
CAC: +8.20%
MIB: +11.32%
Stoxx 600: +5.72%
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