Mar 19 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower amidst a mixed session for Asian equities with Hang Seng leading China market declines. Nikkei swinging higher after the BOJ ended large-scale easing measures, scrapping NIRP, YCC, ETF ad J-REIT purchases. ASX logging mild gain following RBA leaving cash rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected while Taiex flat. US contracts lower afterhours. Australian and JGB yield yields pulled lower following BOJ and RBA meetings.
In Europe, ECB Vice President de Guindos reiterated ECB's data-dependent stance and highlighted services inflation remains sticky. More dovish remarks from Portugal's Centeno. SNB said banks need to prepare more collateral for emergencies. Not much in terms of newsflow outside of central banks. Afterhours focus was on NVDA GTC with company unveiling more powerful successor lineup to H100 AI accelerator chips. Event was widely anticipated with NVDA down ~2% afterhours. Elsewhere, UK press reported UK PM Sunak's allies have warned of a snap general election if rebels force a leadership contest.
Macro data releases in Europe include: Germany Mar ZEW survey, Switzerland Feb trade balance (monthly watch data), Portugal Feb PPI.
On today's agenda, 10th Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue, speakers include Economics minister Hobeck. Conf. hosted by Friedrich August von Hayek Foundation Freiburg, speakers include Chancellor Scholz, finance minister Lindner. Conf "Europe 2024" organised by Die Ziet, speakers include Chancellor Scholz, Economics minister Habeck, Environment minister Lemke. EU's Breton speech at the conf 'Boosting the EU Single Market: Towards the Single Digital Gateway 2.0'. EU's McGuinness panellist at the Euronext Annual Conf. In UK, Trade (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) Bill has its remaining stages, whilst committee topics include Chancellor's Annual Scrutiny Session for 2023-24 at 15:00GMT (Hunt).
In central banks, SNB Annual Report and Sustainability Report released at 7:15CET. Lithuania Central Bank's Šimkus presents the bank's latest macroeconomic forecasts at 9:00CET. ECB's de Guindos speech was at 9:30CET, Bank of Spain's de Cos 9:40 at event organised by El Español and Invertia (thru Thu) (livestream). BOE's Lovell panellist at 16:00GMT at Pay360 conf. Riksbank's Flodén lecture at14:00CET at Dalarna Univ. College on the economic situation and current monetary policy. Publication of selected articles from latest Bundesbank Monthly Report.
Notable earnings reported so far include: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW) reporting FY earnings and confirming its guidance of expected gross client demand of $20-25B in 2024. Fraport (FRA.GR) reported FY earnings and indicated that no dividend for FY23 and FY24 will be distributed given the continued high debt levels and with free cash flow projected to be negative. Georg Fischer (GF.SW) reported FY numbers and raised Strategy 2025 targets. Semperit Holding (SEM.AV) issued final year earnings and guided FY24.
Also due to report today, Deutsche EuroShop (DEQ.GR), Fluegger Group (FLUG.B.DC), TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Piovan (PVN.IM), FILA - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini (FILA.IM), Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN), Essentra (ESNT.LN), Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (MAB1.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB's Centeno Says Cutting Rates May Help Prevent a Recession - Bloomberg
ECB's De Guindos says evolution of wages is key; will have more information In June - link
Sunak Struggles for Control in Face of Dire Polls and Tory Anger - Bloomberg
Jump in UK minimum wage keeps Bank of England on alert - FT
EU to impose tariffs on Russian grain - FT
Britain's energy system will not hit net zero until 2035, National Grid tells Labour - The Telegraph
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF1.00B vs consensus CHF1.08B; confirms guidance of expected gross client demand of $20-25B in 2024
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports Feb Paris Aeroport traffic 7.0M, +4.7% y/y
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- reports FY net income (€16.2M) vs FactSet (€16.1M) [3 est, (€18)-(14.6M)]
AAD.GR (Amadeus FiRe) -- reports FY net income attributable €40.4M vs FactSet €41M [1 est]; revenues, EBITA in line with prelims; issues 2024 outlook
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports FY EPS €4.26 vs FactSet €4.06 [19 est, €3.76-4.49]; no divi for FY23 and FY24 and guides FY24
VETN.SW (Vetropack Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF63.3M vs FactSet CHF79.7M
GF.SW (Georg Fischer) -- reports FY net income CHF235M vs FactSet CHF244.5M [5 est, CHF204.3-278.0M]; raises Strategy 2025 targets
SEM.AV (Semperit Holding) -- reports FY EPS (€0.82) vs FactSet (€0.63) [2 est, (€1.41)-0.15]; guides FY24
Also due to report today include:
Earnings:
DACHs: Deutsche EuroShop (DEQ.GR), PAUL HARTMANN (PHH2.GR), DEUTZ (DEZ.GR)
France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Haulotte Group (PIG.FP)
Nordics: Fluegger Group (FLUG.B.DC)
Southern Europe: TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Piovan (PVN.IM), FILA - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini (FILA.IM), Sabaf (SAB.IM), B&C Speakers (BEC.IM)
UK: Trustpilot Group (TRST.LN), Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN), Essentra (ESNT.LN), Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) (MAB1.LN), M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN), Midwich Group (MIDW.LN), Sabre Insurance Group (SBRE.LN), Wickes Group (WIX.LN), Videndum (VID.LN), Fintel (FNTL.LN), DFS Furniture (DFS.LN), Eagle Eye Solutions Group (EYE.LN), Zotefoams (ZTF.LN), Personal Group Holdings (PGH.LN), Tissue Regenix Group (TRX.LN)
Trading Update: SThree (STEM.LN)
CMD/evenys: GSK (GSK.LN) ESG, Spirent Communications (SPT.LN), TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Enento Group (ENENTO.FH)
M&A
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- could sell remaining stake in Inwit - Bloomberg (18-Mar, 16:05 CET)
LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group) -- exploring potential sale of housebuilder arm Cala - Sky News (18-Mar, 13:07 GMT)
BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues) -- Fosun International evaluating sale of remaining stake in Millennium bcp - Reuters
ENEL.IM (Enel) -- confirms it has suspended the sale of Edesur in Argentina - Bloomberg
EURN.BB (Euronav) -- CMB NV takeover bid for Euronav closes with CMB now holding 80.5% of shares (88.6% ex-Treasury shares)
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- Hydro announces sale of its fabrication plant in Kaunas, Lithuania; terms not reported
PSG.SM (Prosegur Compania de Seguridad) -- Update on outcome of partial bid for Prosegur Compania de Seguridad SA by Gubel SL
CRI.FP (Chargeurs) -- Colombus Holding offer for Chargeurs reopens until 3-Apr
ILM1.GR (Medios) -- announces acquisition of Ceban Pharmaceuticals B.V.
Healthcare
IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- Phase II, LEGEND, Proof-of-Concept study combining lanifibranor with empagliflozin in patients with MASH/NASH and T2D achieved primary efficacy endpoint
4151.JP (Kyowa Kirin) -- Orchard Therapeutics issues press release on FDA Approval of Lenmeldy; expects to provide more details on US launch this week
524715.IN (Sun Pharmaceutical Industries) -- notes Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration approval of Winlevi for treatment of acne vulgaris
EFYA.GR (PharmaCyte Biotech) -- SEC filing: 10-Q
Other
DHER.GR (Delivery Hero) -- invites holders to tender their convertible bonds due in 2025 and 2026 for cash
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- announces start of commercial operation of BESS Coya
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- completes share buyback which began on 2-Aug-22
IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas) -- announces approval of separation project
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- Meyer Burger shareholders approve rights issue of ~CHF200M and support expansion of production and distribution structures in the US
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- discloses receipt of updated minimum fund requirements from Bank of Spain
Li-Cycle Holdings provides business update, following announcement of $75M investment from Glencore
Key rating changes
Upgrades
HEM.SS (Hemnet Group) -- to buy from underperform at Jefferies
VTY.LN (Vistry Group) -- to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets
BPOST.BB (bpost) -- to hold from sell at ING
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
Downgrades
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
SKF.B.SS (SKF) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
INTRUM.SS (Intrum) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
G24/GR (Scout24) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
CGG.FP (CGG) -- to sell from buy at Societe Generale
Initiations
PRY.IM (Prysmian) -- buy at Berenberg
SAGA.B.SS (Sagax) -- buy at SEB
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- outperform at RBC Capital Markets
Data
Nikkei +0.66% to 40003.60
Hang Seng (1.16%) to 16542.99
Shanghai Composite (0.64%) to 3065.09
S&P futures (6.3) vs prior close of 5214.8
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.0866
$-¥ +1.23 or +0.83% to 150.38
€-¥ +1.20 or +0.74% to 163.38
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