Mar 22 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed with pan-European indices just below session highs. Spain +0.8%, FTSE100 and Portugal both +0.7%, Austria +0.6% led outperformers, whilst Finland (0.7%), France, Switzerland and Greece all down ~ (0.4%) led the underperformers.
EU leaders to back tighter Eurozone fiscal stance in 2025 in a meeting Friday.
In central bank updates, SNB unexpectedly cut rates and last remaining BoE hawks dropped rate hike votes and Governor Bailey said markets right to expect more than one rate cut this year.
Focus also on UK retail sales remained weak in Feb (with some commentators looking at the impact from the wet weather during the month), but GfK survey finds consumers more confident about finances. The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey showed orders at -18 in March versus consensus -20 and prior -20. Slight improvement in industrial trend, though still weak overall. Output is expected to improve in the three months to June, which mirrors better sentiment in PMI update on Thursday. Meanwhile, the German Ifo business climate survey beat expectations at 87.8 in March vs consensus 85.9 and prior 85.5. Current assessment indicator at 88.1 vs 86.8 forecast and prior 86.9 and expectations index improved to 87.5 vs consensus 84.7 and prior 84.4 revised from 84.1.
In political developments, Irish minister Simon Harris set to succeed Varadkar as prime minister after his resignation earlier this week. In Spain, exiled Catalan separatist Puigdemont will run to lead Catalonia and return to Spain if he wins.
In corporate news, Sanofi (SAN.FP) released Q1 prelim estimate of currency impact on sales is between ~(3.5%)-(4.5%) and between ~(8.0%)-(9.0%) on business EPS. In Italy, Enel (ENEL.IM) reports FY ordinary net income €6.51B vs FactSet €6.54B [19 est, €6.33-7.02B] and company guidance €6.4B-6.7B. In Spain, Banco Santander (SAN.SM) says is on track to meet 2024 targets, Sanofi (SAN.FP) sees Q1 prelim estimate of currency impact on sales is between ~(3.5%)-(4.5%) and between ~(8.0%)-(9.0%) on business EPS.
Out of the Nordics, Boliden (BOL.SS) reported total impact from political strikes in Finland in Q1. Nokian Renkaat adapts production of passenger car tires at its factory in Nokia, Finland, citing also the ongoing political strikes affecting ports and transportation. Wärtsilä (WRT1V.FH) provided restated financial information for the year 2023 to reflect the redefined organisational structure. In Germany, SGL Carbon (SGL.GR) posted FY numbers. Krones (KRN.GR) confirmed FY23 preliminary figures and FY24 guidance and proposed dividend of €2.20/sh, +25.7% vs year-ago €1.75/sh.
In the UK, Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN) reported FY adj operating profit £617M vs FactSet £553.4M and JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN) posted H1 EPS 20.3p vs year-ago 1.0p.
On M&A front, Volvo (VOLV.B.SS) and Renault Group (RNO.FP) complete the creation of a JV for an all-new generation of electric vans: Flexis SAS. UK's CMA finds Vodafone (VOD.LN)-Three (1.HK) merger of UK businesses could leave consumers, business worse off, with concessions required ir deal will be referred to a more in-depth Phase 2 investigation. Morphosys (MOR.GR) announces U.S. antitrust clearance of proposed acquisition by Novartis (NOVN.SW) under HSR ACT. Reportedly, Unilever (ULVR.LN) gauging private equity interest in ice cream business; could be valued at €10-15B. Also, A.P. Møller - Mærsk (MAERSK.B.DC) publishes Svitzer A/S demerger plan.
Sovereign credit rating reviews due after the close include DBRS (Cyprus, Finland, France, Ireland), Fitch (Portugal, UK), Moody's (Poland), S&P (Germany).
The week ahead sees Riksbank interest rate decision, ECB's Lagarde participate in EIB meeting, release of Germany Mar unemployment change, a number of Q4 final GDPs and Mar preliminary CPIs from across the region as well as earnings/updates from Buzzi (BZU.IM), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN), H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Kingfisher (KGF.LN) and Smiths Group (SMIN.LN).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Utilities +1.07%, Real Estate+0.78%, Food & Beverage +0.57%, Oil & Gas +0.45%, Media +0.44%, Telecom +0.34%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.32%, Financial Svcs +0.21%, Autos & Parts +0.10%, Health Care +0.09%,
Underperformers
Travel & Leisure (1.23%), Technology (0.81%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.74%), Construct & Mtls (0.20%), Basic Resources (0.24%), Retail (0.18%), Chemicals (0.18%), Insurance (0.15%), Banks (0.15%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
Opening remarks by President von der Leyen at the joint press conf. with President Michel following the meeting of the European Council - release
Leaders unanimously call for Gaza ceasefire - Politico
EU Commission proposing to increase the tariffs on imports into the EU of cereals, oilseeds, and derived products from Russia and Belarus - release
France
Parliament blocks EU-Canada CETA deal in blow to Macron - Bloomberg
UK
UK Mar consumer confidence (21) vs consensus (19) and prior (21) - GfK release
Norway
EU and Norway sign strategic partnership on sustainable land-based raw materials and battery value chains - release
Finland
President of the Republic decides on Finland's accession to NATO Status of Forces Agreement and Paris Protocol - release
Ireland
Nominations for Fine Gael leader will close on Sunday - RTE
Greece
Bank of Greece sets limits on mortgages - ekathimerini
Malta
Malta Central Bank's Scicluna say Apr rate cut 'not impossible or even improbable' - Econostream
Portugal
Press release of the Banco de Portugal on the March 2024 issue of the Economic Bulletin - release
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+20.4% EVE.SW (Evolva Holding CHF0.98, +0.17) -- publishes first liquidation interim financial statements (as of 31-Dec-23) and agenda for AGM to be held on 12-Apr-24
+17.2% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.00, -0.00) -- presented its phase 3 protocol in the treatment of sarcopenia
+15.6% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK0.81, +0.11) -- completes NOK 500M private placement at NOK 0.70 per share
+9.9% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF1.44, +0.13) -- Eton Pharmaceuticals acquires US rights to PKU GOLIKE from company
+8.6% PHNX.LN (Phoenix Group Holdings £5.31, +0.42) -- FY earnings
+7.7% FSJ.LN (James Fisher & Sons £2.67, +0.19) -- disposal of RMSpumptools business to ChampionX Corporation ofr £90M
+7.2% SCHA.NO (Schibsted NOK337.40, +22.60) -- company and Tinius Trust sign final agreement on sale of news media operations
+6.0% DOV.IM (doValue €2.04, +0.12) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.7% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.59, +0.09) -- study update
+5.2% TEM1V.FH (Tecnotree €0.29, +0.01) -- provides update on dividend and reverse share split proposal
+5.1% SGL.GR (SGL Carbon €6.52, +0.32) -- FY earnings
+4.4% AKVA.NO (AKVA Group NOK66.40, +2.80) -- to launch share buyback for up to 200K shares at maximum NOK150/share
+3.2% KID.NO (Kid ASA NOK136.00, +4.20) -- SEB upgrade
+3.1% ABG.NO (ABG Sundal Collier Holding NOK6.04, +0.18) -- partner share transactions
+2.7% ALTR.PL (Altri SGPS €5.09, +0.13) -- FY earnings
+2.3% COV.FP (Covivio €45.74, +1.02) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+2.0% EPR.NO (Europris NOK74.95, +1.45) -- acquires the remaining 80% of Runsvengruppen/ÖoB
+2.0% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.69, +0.01) -- CMA finds Vodafone-Three merger could leave consumers, business worse off
+1.8% ENG.SM (Enagas €13.42, +0.24) -- JB Capital Markets upgrade
+1.8% WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie €110.35, +1.90) -- Aker Carbon Capture awarded study and test campaign from company
+1.5% WIE.AV (Wienerberger €33.46, +0.48) -- Citi upgrade rkt
+1.3% AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings £1.73, +0.02) -- appoints new CEO
+1.0% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK69.40, +0.70) -- proposes dividend of NOK1.75/share
Notable Decliners
-10.6% AT1.GR (Aroundtown €1.71, -0.20) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade
-9.2% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK214.40, -21.80) -- Lecanemab deliberations at the CHMP regarding the Marketing Authorisation Application in the EU have been rescheduled due to procedural reasons
-6.6% CWC.GR (CEWE Stiftung & Co €96.20, -6.80) -- FY earnings
-5.6% JDW.LN (JD Wetherspoon £7.52, -0.45) -- H1 earnings
-5.6% EUZ.GR (Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik €37.56, -2.22) -- FY earnings
-3.4% IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics SEK17.20, -0.60) -- announced the receipt of written minutes from a recent End-of-Phase 2 meeting for mesdopetam with the FDA
-2.4% REC.LN (Record £0.65, -0.02) -- FY trading update
-2.2% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €829.20, -18.40) -- Director and Chairman of the Executive Committee to step down
-2.1% 4C.SS (4C Group SEK19.00, -0.40) -- has appointed the current Managing Director of 4C International, Jonas Jonsson, as the CEO of 4C Strategies
-1.9% NEWA.B.SS (New Wave Group SEK126.12, -2.44) -- initiated hold at SEB
-1.8% TOKMAN.FH (Tokmanni Group €14.90, -0.28) -- FY earnings
-1.7% MINEST.SS (Minesto SEK2.84, -0.05) -- CEO comments on the ongoing rights issue and the commercial agenda
-1.6% DAM.GR (Data Modul €37.80, -0.60) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: Synlab (SYAB.GR), adesso (ADN1.GR), Heidelberg Pharma (HPHA.GR), Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW)
France: Quadient (QDT.FP)
Southern Europe: Technogym (TGYM.IM)
UK: Kingfisher (KGF.LN), Gamma Communications (GAMA.LN), Central Asia Metal (CAML.LN), Henry Boot (BOOT.LN), Virgin Wines (VINO.LN)
Data:
Economics:
UK
Feb retail sales (0.4%) y/y vs consensus (0.7%), prior revised +0.5% from +0.7%; 0.0% m/m vs consensus (0.3%), prior revised +3.6% from +3.4%
Germany Mar IFO survey
Business Climate 87.8 vs consensus 86.0, prior revised 85.7 from 85.5
Current Conditions 88.1 vs consensus 86.8, prior 86.9
Expectations 87.5 vs consensus 84.7, prior revised 84.4 from 84.1
Market
WTI Crude (May 24): ($0.24) or (0.30%) to $80.83
€-$ (0.0053) or (0.49%) to 1.0808
£-$ (0.0058) or (0.46%) to 1.2598
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8579
S&P 500 (0.20%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.56%
DAX: +8.68%
CAC: +8.07%
MIB: +13.18%
Stoxx 600: +6.40%
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