Mar 26 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended generally higher following a choppy trading. Ireland +0.9%, Germany +0.8% and Sweden +0.7% led the outperformers whilst Denmark (0.4%), Norway (0.3%), Greece (0.2%) led the underperformers.
No change in broader market narrative. Sell-side strategists continue to raise year-end targets for Stoxx Europe 600, though positioning dynamics and overstretched indicators getting more attention amid narrow market breadth. Ongoing discussions related to central bank outlook. Markets getting more aggressive on BoE rate cut outlook with bets increasing for May easing, though June still seen more likely. ECB officials seem to support a June move for governing council to begin rate cut cycle. FOMC-dated OIS pricing in ~75% odds of a June cut.
From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, focus on better German GfK consumer confidence. German GfK consumer confidence data improved in April, with sentiment picking up in line with stabilization in other forward-looking indicators. Headline at (27.4) vs consensus (27.9) and prior (28.8) revised from (29.0). Economic and income expectations increased slightly, but propensity to buy remains unchanged amid ongoing caution among consumers. Denmark posted better-than-expected Feb Retail Sales at +6.6% y/y vs consensus +4.9%; Sweden Feb PPI was shy of expectations at (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.1%) and Finland Feb Unemployment Rate came in at 7.8% vs consensus 8.1%. Spain final Q4 GDP came in line with preliminary at +2.0% y/y.
In corporate news, CTS Eventim (EVD.GR) reported final FY earnings in line with preliminary release. Also in the DACH region, Norma Group (NOEJ.GR) posted final FY adj EPS €1.37 vs FactSet €1.22 and cut divi by ~18%. Wacker Neuson (WAC.GR) released FY numbers below expectations and group expects to see growth remain flat or fall slightly in fiscal 2024. Baloise (BALN.SW) posted mixed FY with net income attributable a miss whilst EBIT came ahead of consensus.
In the UK, Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN) reported better-than-expected FY revenue and adj EBITDA; noted strong trading year to date with group revenue growth of 23.4% from 1-Jan-24 to 17-Mar-24 versus prior comparable period. Asos (ASC.LN) traded higher post H1 trading statement: despite sales decline by c.(18%) group highlights strong cash performance from planned inventory reduction and reiterates FY guidance and delivery of strategic objectives. Ocado Group (OCDO.LN) shares were also in positive territory on the back of its Q1 trading update with guidance unchanged. John Wood Group (WG.LN) traded lower post FY numbers and upgraded outlook with group also announcing a simplification programme.
In France, Atos (ATO.FP) confirmed prelim FY23 results as per 28-Feb update; no dividend and FY24 objectives not provided. Further in France, Carrefour (CA.FP) announced that on 26-Mar-24, it has entered into an agreement to buy back 25M of its own shares - representing around 3.5% of its capital - from Galfa, a subsidiary of Motier.
On M&A front, CaixaBank (CABK.SM) sold 1.957% of its 3.510% stake in Telefonica (TEF.SM) by delivering 1% to the counterparty. Edenred (EDEN.FP) will fully acquire IP's energy cards business and become a leader in B2B Mobility services in Italy. Revolution Bars Group PLC (RBG.LN) noted recent press speculation that the group is looking for emergency funding and will put itself up for sale. Elsewhere, Orange and MASMOVIL complete 50:50 Joint Venture to form leading operator in Spain in terms of customers.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Retail +1.64%, Banks +0.98%, Construct & Mtls +0.72%, Travel & Leisure +0.72%, Telecom +0.69%, Food & Beverage +0.65%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.51%, Insurance +0.33%
Underperformers
Oil & Gas (0.53%), Basic Resources (0.53%), Chemicals (0.22%), Utilities (0.15%), Media (0.05%), Health Care +0.02%, Autos & Parts +0.03%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.04%, Financial Svcs +0.06%, Real Estate+0.13%, Technology +0.18%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
UK
France
Italy
Italy's economic recovery does little to help poorest - Reuters
Germany
Poland
Polish lawmakers start probe of Central Bank Governor - Bloomberg
Greece
Greece may issue another new bond next month - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+47.7% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.33, +0.11) -- FY trading update; Panmure Gordon upgrade
+20.1% ALATI.FP (Actia Group €3.65, +0.61) -- FY earnings
+13.9% LUCE.LN (Luceco £1.38, +0.17) -- FY earnings; Numis upgrade
+12.5% RUI.FP (Rubis €31.60, +3.50) -- Oddo upgrade
+11.2% PVN.IM (Piovan €12.40, +1.25) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+9.4% ASC.LN (Asos £3.79, +0.33) -- H1 trading statement
+9.3% BAG.LN (A.G. BARR £5.62, +0.48) -- FY earnings
+8.5% HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding €74.40, +5.80) -- prelim FY earnings
+7.7% CHRT.LN (Cohort £6.40, +0.46) -- contract
+6.4% KWS.GR (KWS Saat €49.70, +3.00) -- sells corn business and licenses for KWS breeding material in South America
+5.5% RWAY.IM (Rai Way €5.15, +0.27) -- Q4 earnings
+5.1% EVD.GR (CTS Eventim €77.50, +3.75) -- FY earnings
+4.6% SGG.SS (Sensys Gatso Group SEK79.00, +3.50) -- initiated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
+4.6% FLO.LN (Flowtech Fluidpower £0.79, +0.04) -- FY earnings
+4.6% SUR.GR (Surteco Group €13.70, +0.60) -- prelim FY eanrings
+4.4% SCT.LN (Softcat £15.51, +0.65) -- H1 earnings
+3.9% A28890.GR (CompuGroup Medical €27.94, +1.06) -- adopts resolution on share buy-back program for up to 500K shares
+3.7% ENAV.IM (ENAV €3.91, +0.14) -- transferred buy at UBS
+3.2% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £4.67, +0.15) -- Q1 retail revenue
+3.2% NOEJ.GR (Norma Group €16.82, +0.52) -- FY earnings
+2.9% BNP.FP (BNP Paribas €64.31, +1.82) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+2.5% MBH.LN (Michelmersh Brick Holdings £1.04, +0.03) -- FY earnings; CEO to step down
+2.3% F3C.GR (SFC Energy €19.06, +0.42) -- order
+2.2% SMIN.LN (Smiths Group £16.90, +0.36) -- H1 earnings; CEO steps down
+1.8% TEF.SM (Telefonica €4.06, +0.07) -- CaixaBank sells 1.957% of its 3.510% stake in Telefonica by delivering 1% to the counterparty
Spain's SEPI acquires 3% stake in Telefonica - El Confidencial
+1.8% KMK.LN (Kromek Group £0.06, -0.00) -- order
+1.0% ASTK.NO (Asetek NOK6.34, +0.06) -- Last day of listing and trading of company A/S shares on Oslo Børs today
Notable Decliners
-51.7% RBG.LN (Revolution Bars Group £0.01, -0.02) -- notes recent press speculation; board is actively exploring all strategic options including restructuring plan for certain parts of group, sale of all or part of group
-44.9% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.11, -0.09) -- carries out the following transactions for accelerated safeguard plan
-35.5% ALZCUR.SS (AlzeCure Pharma SEK1.87, -1.03) -- to carry out ~ SEK53M right issue
-14.2% CML.LN (CML Microsystems £3.20, -0.53) -- FY trading update
-8.3% ABCA.FP (ABC arbitrage €3.74, -0.34) -- FY earnings
-7.3% ORP.FP (emeis €11.02, -0.87) -- hold at Societe Generale
-7.0% WG.LN (John Wood Group £1.38, -0.10) -- FY earnings; announces simplification programme
-6.3% AAG.GR (Aumann €16.60, -1.12) -- FY earnings
-6.2% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.44, -0.03) -- notes restrictions imposed on certain corporate rights in all of the group's Ukrainian subsidiaries
-6.0% XAR.LN (Xaar £1.03, -0.07) -- FY earnings
-6.0% YOU.LN (YouGov £11.00, -0.70) -- H1 earnings
-5.7% MCG.LN (Mobico Group £0.67, -0.04) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade
-5.3% EXA.FP (Exail Technologies €22.20, -1.25) -- FY earnings; order
-3.9% UMI.BB (Umicore €20.22, -0.82) -- assumed sell at Goldman
-3.8% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €100.00, -4.00) -- JPMorgan cuts estimates for Q1 following pre-close IR catch-up; notes slow start confimed
-3.7% INWI.SS (Inwido SEK141.90, -5.50) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-1.8% MERY.FP (Mercialys €10.56, -0.19) -- Societe Generale downgrade
-1.7% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £4.00, -0.07) -- appoints CEO designate
-1.1% FLTR.LN (Flutter Entertainment £170.95, -1.90) -- FY earnings
-1.1% JST.GR (JOST Werke €47.40, -0.55) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Tessenderlo Group (TESB.BB)
DACHs: FACC (FACC.AV), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Sixt (SIX2.GR), Jenoptik (JEN.GR), PNE (PNE3.GR), ElringKlinger (ZIL2.GR), Medios (ILM1.GR), Aroundtown (AT1.GR), Leifheit (LEI.GR), IBU-tec advanced materials (IBU.GR), EDAG Engineering Group (ED4.GR), Delticom (DEX.GR), RENK Group (R3NK.GR), SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR), Rational (RAA.GR), SUSS MicroTec (SMHN.GR), Koenig & Bauer (SKB.GR), EnBW Energie Baden Wuerttemberg (EBK.GR), Wustenrot & Wurttembergische (WUW.GR), Baader Bank (BWB.GR), SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Mister Spex (MRX.GR), SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner (SHF.GR), hGears (HGEA.GR), WashTec (WSU.GR), GAM Holding (GAM.SW), Accelleron Industries (ACLN.SW), Vaudoise Assurances Holding (VAHN.SW)
France: Esker (ALESK.FP), Cegedim (CGM.FP), Advicenne (ALDVI.FP), Inventiva (IVA.FP), Vranken-Pommery Monopole (VRAP.FP), HighCo (HCO.FP), LNA Sante (LNA.FP), MEMSCAP (MEMS.FP), Transgene (TNG.FP)
Nordics: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Atlantic Petroleum (ALTA.DC)
Southern Europe: Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA), Philogen (PHIL.IT)
UK: Playtech (PTEC.LN), Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ.LN), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), Pharos Energy (PHAR.LN), Ecora Resources (ECOR.LN), The Artisanal Spirits Co. (ART.LN), Nanoco Group (NANO.LN), James Halstead (JHD.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Feb Unemployment Rate 7.8% vs consensus 8.1% and prior 8.3%
Denmark Feb Retail Sales +6.6% y/y vs consensus +4.9% and prior revised +0.9% from +5.8%
Germany Apr GfK Consumer Confidence (27.4) vs consensus (27.9) and prior revised (28.8) from (29.0)
Sweden Feb PPI (1.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.1%) and prior (2.3%)
Spain Q4 GDP +2.0% y/y vs preliminary +2.0%; +0.6% q/q vs preliminary +0.6%
Markets:
€-$ (0.0009) or (0.08%) to 1.0829
£-$ (0.0003) or (0.02%) to 1.2632
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8575
S&P 500 +0.21%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.56%
DAX: +9.75%
CAC: +8.51%
MIB: +14.29%
Stoxx 600: +6.70%
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