Mar 28 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished higher but off best levels; Italy, Spain, Finland and Sweden bucking the trend at the close. Travel/Leisure, Retail and Media the best performers, while Financial Services, Utilities and Technology lag. US equity markets mostly higher in midday trading. Treasuries weaker at front end but 10s and bond little changed. Dollar index up 0.1%, doing best vs euro. Gold up 1.3%. Bitcoin futures up 3.8%. WTI crude up 1.7% and on track for a weekly gain.
Momentum has been limited this week with activity light ahead of long Easter weekend in Europe. Market continues to benefit from central bank rate cut expectations, though positioning dynamics and overstretched indicators limiting gains. Month-end, quarter-end rebalancing also another overhang. Market also waiting for fresh catalysts. Next week's Eurozone CPI data the focus in Europe, though ECB policymakers have largely backed June rate cut.
On data front, Eurozone M3 money supply growth expands for third month. Final UK Q4 GDP in line with preliminary reading at -0.3%. German unemployment increase softer than forecasts, while retail sales missed with sales down for the fourth month. Meanwhile, Macron plans for welfare cuts to bring down deficit.
On the corporate front, out of DACHs, Kontron (KTN.GR), Knaus Tabbert (KTA.GR), BayWa (BYW6.GR), Jungheinrich (JUN3.GR) and CANCOM (COK.GR) reported final year numbers. In France, LNA Santé (LNA.FP) and VusionGroup (VU.FP) reported FY earnings, whilst Trigano (TRI.FP) reported Q2 revenue. SOITEC (SOI.FP) confirmed guidance for FY24 with FY revenue to be down ~ (10%) y/y. In the Netherlands, InPost (INPST.NA) issued FY earnings, indicating that it expects to exceed market growth in all geographies for 2024. In the UK, JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), AO World (AO.LN), EnQuest (ENQ.LN) and Integrated Diagnostics Holdings (IDHC.LN) were amongst others from the region to update investors with their latest numbers. Further out of France, Casino (CO.FP) announced the effective completion of its financial restructuring and the composition of its new board, with Philippe Palazzi as the new CEO.
In M&A, Renault Group (RNO.FP) sold 99.1M Nissan shares to Nissan (7201.JP) for €358M. The boards of Keysight (KEYS) and Spirent (SPT.LN) announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash acquisition of the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Spirent by Keysight at 201.5p/sh. Take-Two (TTWO) to buy Gearbox Entertainment from Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS) for $460M (SEK4.9B) in shares; Embracer's intent is to sell these shares to receive cash proceeds soon after closing.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Retail +1.33%, Media +0.96%, Travel & Leisure +0.92%, Real Estate +0.74%, Banks +0.72%, Basic Resources +0.71%, Oiol & Gas+0.66%, Health Care +0.41%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.41%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.39%, Telecom +0.33%, Insurance +0.26%
Underperformers:
Utilities (0.50%), Technology (0.33%), Financial Svcs (0.33%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.13%), Autos & Parts (0.10%), Chemicals (0.09%), Construct & Mtls (0.06%)
Macro:
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Italian companies more robust in face of shocks says Istat - ANSA
Greece:
PM faces no-confidence vote over 2023 train crash - Reuters
Tax authorities scrutinizing realty purchases - ekathimerini
Hungary:
Central bank says credible fiscal planning needed to cut risks - Reuters
Poland:
Poland, Ukraine hail progress in food import talks, but deal remains elusive - Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.6% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £1.35, +0.18) -- trading update
+14.2% EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group SEK23.35, +2.90) -- Take-Two (TTWO) to buy Gearbox Entertainment from Embracer Group for $460M (SEK4.9B) in shares
+12.2% AO.LN (AO World £1.01, +0.11) -- trading update
+11.7% SPT.LN (Spirent Communications £2.00, +0.21) -- Keysight (KEYS) confirms 201.5p/share recommended cash offer for Spirent Communications PLC
+11.1% VU.FP (VusionGroup €142.20, +14.20) -- earnings
+10.0% TRI.FP (Trigano €162.80, +14.80) -- sales
+6.6% MZX.GR (Masterflex €9.96, +0.62) -- earnings
+4.8% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £1.76, +0.08) -- earnings
+4.3% MARI.AV (Marinomed Biotech €21.70, +0.90) -- agreement with European Investment Bank to defer repayments of the 2019 venture loan for 18 months
+4.2% COK.GR (CANCOM €27.60, +1.12) -- earnings
+3.5% AFP.SW (Aluflexpack CHF15.18, +0.52) -- earnings
+3.1% MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals €0.28, +0.01) -- updates on its ongoing monetization process
+2.8% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.06, -0.00) -- copper and chrome update
+2.6% IDOX.LN (IDOX £0.63, +0.02) -- AGM trading update
+2.5% TNG.FP (Transgene €1.14, +0.03) -- earnings; CFO steps down
Notable Decliners
-70.8% MEN.LN (Molecular Energies £0.07, -0.17) -- to delist; reconsiders potentil IPO of Green House Capital Group plc
-63.4% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.04, -0.07) -- announces effective completion of its financial restructuring
-60.0% HZM.LN (Horizonte Minerals £0.02, -0.02) -- project refinancing update
-20.6% SOI.FP (SOITEC €95.74, -24.85) -- earnings; management change
-17.6% GCM.LN (GCM Resources £0.08, -0.02) -- earnings
-15.4% CGM.FP (Cegedim €13.08, -2.36) -- earnings
-11.8% BSL.GR (Basler €10.80, -1.44) -- earnings
-10.5% QUIZ.LN (QUIZ Ltd. £0.05, -0.01) -- trading update; management change
-9.8% EKT.GR (EnergieKontor €64.80, -7.00) -- earnings
-9.4% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.12, -0.01) -- to raise gross proceeds of up to £20.5M; Domino's Pizza Group confirms agrees to invest £11M in DP Poland as part of DP Poland's fundraising
-6.5% KTN.GR (Kontron €20.72, -1.44) -- earnings
-4.4% DMP.GR (Dermapharm Holding €32.60, -1.52) -- earnings
-3.8% BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA €36.16, -1.42) -- earnings
-3.5% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €1.52, -0.06) -- earnings
-3.4% SBS.GR (Stratec €40.95, -1.45) -- earnings
-3.3% SN.LN (Smith & Nephew £9.94, -0.34) -- new CFO John Rogers to join on 1-Apr-24
-3.2% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.00, -0.00) -- earnings
-3.1% ACS.SM (ACS SA €38.87, -1.26) -- Texas Transportation Commission concession contract update
-3.0% LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco SEK279.60, -8.70) -- acquires Brevetti Montolit in Italy; price undisclosed
-2.9% BYW6.GR (BayWa €25.30, -0.75) -- earnings
-2.8% IDHC.LN (Integrated Diagnostics Holdings £0.40, -0.01) -- earnings
-2.8% TTK.GR (Takkt €13.38, -0.38) -- earnings
-2.3% SSAB.B.SS (SSAB SEK78.90, -1.86) -- political strikes in Finland impact earnings: estimated to have weakened Q1 operating result by around SEK 350M
EU companies reporting 2-Apr:
Earnings: Abivax (ABVX.FP), Aelis Farma (AELIS.FP), Afyren (ALAFY.FP), Voltalia (VLTSA.FP), Gaming Realms (GMR.LN), XLMedia (XLM.LN), Valartis Group (VLRT.SW)
Trading Update: Renew Holdings (RNWH.LN)
Data:
Economics:
UK Q4 GDP (0.2%) y/y vs prelim (0.2%); (0.3%) q/q vs prelim (0.3%)
Eurozone Feb M3 Money Supply +0.4% vs cons +0.3% and prior +0.1%
Germany
Feb Retail Sales (2.7%) y/y vs cons (0.8%) and prior (1.4%); (1.9%) m/m vs cons +0.3% and prior (0.4%)
Mar Unemployment Change +4K vs cons +10K and prior +11K
Mar Unemployment Rate 5.9% vs cons 5.9% and prior 5.9%
Italy
Mar Business Confidence 88.6 vs cons 87.6 nd prior revised to 87.5 from 87.3
Mar Consumer Confidence 96.5 vs cons 97.5 and prior 97.0
Feb PPI (10.8%) y/y vs cons (9.5%) and prior (10.7%); (1.0%) m/m vs cons +0.4% and prior (1.7%)
Switzerland Mar KOF Leading Indicators 101.5 vs consensus 102.0 and prior revised 102.0 from 101.6
Portugal Mar Preliminary CPI +2.3% y/y vs cons +2.2% and prior +2.1%; +2.0% m/m vs cons +0.4% and prior 0.0%
Sweden Feb Retail Sales +0.3% y/y vs cons (1.4%) and prior (1.2%); +0.5% m/m vs cons (0.1%) and prior +0.4%
Ireland Feb Retail Sales +1.1% y/y vs cons +2.5% and prior revised +5.3% from +2.7%; (2.0%) m/m vs cons +0.6% and prior revised +2.0% from +0.5%
Belgium Mar CPI +3.2% y/y vs cons +3.2% and prior +3.2%; +0.6% m/m vs cons +0.4% and prior +0.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 24): +$1.32 or +1.62% to $82.67
€-$ (0.0025) or (0.23%) to 1.0803
£-$ +0.0003 or +0.03% to 1.2643
€-£ (0.0022) to 0.8546
S&P 500 +0.05%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.84%
DAX: +10.39%
CAC: +8.78%
MIB: +14.44%
Stoxx 600: +7.03%
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