Apr 01 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for a positive start to Tuesday trade. Nikkei futures pointing to gains as Australia and Hong Kong resume trade following Easter long weekend. US contracts down slightly changed following uneventful Monday session. Sharp rise in Australian and New Zealand yields after Treasuries came under notable pressure overnight. FX markets steady with dollar index near highest since Nov-2023. Gold near record high. Crude below strongest levels since Oct-2023. Bitcoin remains range-bound below record high.
Yen continues to gravitate just below 152-per dollar handle being eyed as potential intervention trigger. US-Japan yield gap in focus after recent US data prompted dialing back of Fed rate cut expectations. Yen volatility has ebbed over past week, a factor some strategists say diminishes intervention likelihood. However, press have also highlighted how attention on yen levels has overshadowed authorities' stated monitoring of volatility.
Overnight attention was on hotter-than-expected US ISM manufacturing index, including jump in prices paid subindex. Data appeared to provide support to bumpy disinflation narrative, leading markets to price in ~65 of Fed rate cuts in 2024 - 10 bp less than Fed's median projection from March. June rate cut now seen as 50/50 probability. Treasury yields rose further amid the hawkish repricing with 10Y seeing its biggest increase mid-Feb.
March RBA minutes to be scrutinized for further indications that central bank has dropped its tightening bias, including whether board again debated whether to hike rates at this month's meeting. Recall RBA meeting takeaways focused on dovish shift in policy bias while subsequent weaker-than-expected retail sales and inflation data has led markets to price in ~45 bp easing in 2024 with first rate cut expected in October.
Pre-open Company News:
505200.IN -- Eicher Motors reports March total motorcycle sales (units) 75,551 vs StreetAccount 77,959 {6 estimates 76,000-79,000}
9866.HK -- NIO Inc delivers 11,866 vehicles in March, +14.3% y/y
+XXC -- Xinxu Copper Industry Technology Limited files $15M IPO on a firm commitment basis through Craft Capital Management and R.F. Lafferty - F-1
Goldman Sachs downgrades Yankuang Energy Group H-shares
UD2.SP -- Japfa releases sustainability report 2023
532539.IN -- Uno Minda receives communication from Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India about global recall
028050.KS -- Samsung Engineering Co. receives KRW1.232T construction contract from Samsung BioLogics for P5 project
1098.HK -- Road King Infrastructure, China Merchants Expressway extend long stop date for CNY4.41B sale
1258.HK -- China Nonferrous Mining provides new resource estimate for Luanshya Copper Mine, +82% vs 31-Dec
000725.CH -- BOE Technology Group reports FY net income attributable CNY2.55B vs guidance CNY2.30-2.50B and FactSet CNY2.41B [11 est, CNY1.40-4.36B]
533278.IN -- Coal India reports March provisional coal production 88.6Mt vs year-ago 83.5Mt
9868.HK -- XPeng, Inc. delivers 9,026 vehicles in March
505200.IN -- VE Commercial Vehicles reports March total sales 11,242 vehicles vs StreetAccount 10,545 {6 estimates 8,269-12,305}
95.HK -- LVGEM (China) Real Estate Investment CEO Tang Shouchun retires as of 31-Mar
1211.HK -- BYD Co. Ltd. reports March vehicle production volume 296,253 units vs year-ago 209,823 units
On Deck:
China:
Earnings:
AVIC Aircraft (000768.CH), Shanghai International Port (Group) (600018.CH), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group (600141.CH), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group (600141.CH), Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) (601231.CH), Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) (601231.CH), FangDa Carbon New Material (600516.CH), FangDa Carbon New Material (600516.CH)
Japan:
Earnings:
Sugi Holdings (7649.JP)
South Korea:
Economic:
08:00 KST: CPI M/M; consensus
08:00 KST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +2.9%
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 24): +$14.10 or +0.62% to $2271.20
WTI Crude (May 24): +$0.24 or +0.29% to $83.95
$-¥: +0.24 or +0.16% to 151.6110
$-KRW: +2.76 or +0.20% to 1353.1700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.42%) to 0.6490
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 83.4413
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 7.2297
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