Apr 05 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower. Retail, utilities, telecom lead the underperformers. Oil/Gas holding in positive territory, though rest of sectors lower. US equity markets higher with S&P up ~1.2%. Bond yields up following US data with US 10-year 7bps higher at 4.38%. Bund up 3 bps at 2.39%. US Dollar firmer across the board. Crude oil +0.65%. Gold +1.60%. Industrial metals higher.
On the macro data front, UK Halifax house price measure showed first fall in six months. German factory orders stabilized on the month and French industrial production weaker-than-forecast. Eurozone construction PMI weaker, but UK back in expansionary territory. Eurozone retail sales falls in February, as expected. Of note, US headline nonfarm payrolls came in 303K in March vs. ~200K consensus. Average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m, as expected. Report likely to add to the angst that stronger economy may not give Fed confidence to begin rate cuts in June.
Amidst light corporate news flow, Shell (SHEL.LN) issued Q1 update note and Argo Blockchain (ARB.LN) announced Mar operational update out of the UK. In the DACHs, SoftwareONE Holding (SWON.SW) noted that three additional proxy advisors, Ethos, Glass Lewis and Inrate, had opposed complete replacement of board as requested by 29% shareholder block. In Italy, Eni (ENI.IM) confirmed proposal for a new buyback program in line with previously disclosed plan. In Spain, Grifols (GRF.SM) presented the information requested by CNMV to assist in guaranteeing the transparency and integrity of present and future financial information.
In M&A, Experian (EXPN.LN) to acquire illion for total consideration of up to A$820M (~$532M). Holcim (HOLN.SW) signed agreement to acquire Tensolite; terms undisclosed. Implenia's (IMPN.SW) main shareholder Max Roessler sold 13.7% of its stake to BURU Holding AG. Media reports Airbus (AIR.FP), Boeing (BA) are evaluating deal to split up Spirit AeroSystems' (SPR) operations.
The week ahead sees ECB interest rate decision, Eurogroup meeting, OPEC and IEA monthly oil market reports as well as Germany Feb industrial production, UK Feb industrial/manufacturing production. Notable earnings/updates feature Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), BP (BP.LN), OMV (OMV.AV), Repsol (REP.SM) and Tesco (TSCO.LN).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Oil & Gas+0.02%, Technology (0.23%), Media (0.29%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.60%), Travel & Leisure (0.65%), Health Care (0.70%), Construct & Mtls (0.71%), Financial Svcs (0.79%)
Underperformers:
Utilities (2.11%), Retail (1.99%), Consumer Products and Services (1.74%), Telecom (1.51%), Basic Resources (1.27%), Chemicals (1.19%), Real Estate (1.15%), Insurance (1.13%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (1.08%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (1.05%), Autos & Parts (0.94%)
Macro:
Central banks:
ECB seen cutting interest rates once a quarter starting in Jun - Bloomberg
UK:
Next UK government faces credit rating challenge, S&P says -- Reuters
National Insurance cut to kick in but more pay tax - BBC
UK retail sector still weak with sales showing limited signs of recovery - London Times
Geopolitics
Peripheral markets:
France:
PM Attal defends his reform 'more focused on activity than inactivity' - Le Monde
Italy:
Efforts for Italy's two main opposition groups to form an alliance have hit rough waters - ANSA
Greece:
Disappointing Q1 for retail - Kathimerini
Slovakia
Why Slovakia's presidential election is a vote on Robert Fico's power - FT
Iceland:
PM resigns to run for president - Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+4.5% IMPN.SW (Implenia CHF34.55, +1.50) -- new anchor shareholder BURU Holding
+1.4% ROS.AV (Rosenbauer International €28.00, +0.40) -- FY earnings
+1.4% DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co. £10.01, +0.14) -- continues share buyback programme for up to 4.9M ordinary shares
+0.3% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK73.35, +0.20) -- reporting structure changes
Notable Decliners
-12.4% BRAV.SS (Bravida Holding SEK77.60, -11.00) -- to analyse Region Skåne investigation; Carnegie Securities downgrade
-2.9% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €3.06, -0.09) -- March traffic
-2.1% CYAD.BB (Celyad Oncology €0.35, -0.01) -- interim CEO's letter to shareholders
-1.9% OSB.LN (OSB Group £3.59, -0.07) -- new CFO
-1.5% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €3.20, -0.05) -- FY earnings
-1.1% BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas €27.66, -0.30) -- holder Wendel sells 40.5M shares, ~9% of share capital for €1.1B
-0.3% GRF.SM (Grifols €9.03, -0.03) -- presents financial information requested by CNMV
EU companies reporting on 8-Apr:
Earnings: Industrivarden (INDU.A.SS), Burkhalter Holding (BRKN.SW), Bango (BGO.LN)
Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM), Bossard (BOSN.SW), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)
Production: Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN)
Traffic: SAS (SAS.SS)
CMD/events: Equinor (EQNR.NO) ESG
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Feb Retail Sales (0.7%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%) and prior revised (0.9%) from (1.0%); (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.4%) and prior +0.1%
UK Mar
Construction PMI 50.2 vs consensus 50.0 and prior 49.7
Halifax House Price Index +0.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior revised +1.6% from +1.7%; (1.0%) m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior revised +0.3% from +0.4%
Germany
Mar Construction PMI 38.3 vs consensus 40.0 and prior 39.1
Feb Factory Orders +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised (11.4%) from (11.3%)
France Feb Industrial Production +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised (0.9%) from (1.1%)
Spain Feb Industrial Production +1.5% y/y vs consensus (0.5%) and prior revised +0.3% from (0.6%)
Switzerland Mar SECO Consumer Sentiment (38.0) vs consensus (41.0) and prior (42.0)
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 24): +$0.53 or +0.61% to $87.12
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0835
£-$ (0.0018) or (0.14%) to 1.2624
€-£ +0.0011 to 0.8583
S&P 500 +1.03%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.30%
DAX: +8.50%
CAC: +6.87%
MIB: +12.06%
Stoxx 600: +5.75%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE