Apr 08 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices ended higher, except for Spain and Norway. Macro-data focus on better-than-expected German industrial production, while trade surplus narrower-than-forecast. Eurozone Sentix also out: index went up for sixth consecutive month to -5.9 versus consensus -8.3 and prior -10.5. It is the best reading since February 2022 and expectations index also positive again for the first time since the start of the Ukraine conflict. Improvement also in German economic conditions with 7.4 increase in overall index and expectation levels also at highest since February 2022, but remains at the bottom of the table in relative terms. Better Eurozone sentiment also coincides with stabilization in German consumer and business surveys and improvement in economic conditions in other regions
Central bank policy also in focus this week. The ECB meets on Thursday, with markets expecting rates on-hold at 4.00%. Focus may turn to tone of the statement and press conference, given guidance of a June cut. EZ inflation dynamics broadly benign, as energy price shocks following Ukraine war largely overcome and higher rates impacting EU growth. Core inflation still declining, so risks seen tilted to the downside for wage pressures. Analysts see minimal risks associated with ECB cutting before Fed, as EUR/USD weakness on widening real yield spreads could be offset by stronger EZ exports. Pace of policy easing more important. Natixis skeptical of easing bias, pointing to risks of continuously expansive monetary policy that breeds financial instability. The BoE is due to publish former Fed Chair Bernanke's review into its forecasting approach on Friday. Bloomberg reported review will suggest innovation via a flexible set of "scenario analysis" and repair reputation after underestimating inflation in 2022. BoE Governor Bailey has called it a "once in a generation" opportunity and should not be underestimated. Incoming deputy governor Lombardelli will oversee changes to monetary policy methods, which is likely to take months. Bailey already told the FT last week he is expecting it to drop its existing "fan chart" forecast. Preference is for alternative scenarios, alongside a central forecast
On a light reporting calendar, Aker BP (AKRBP.NO), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Burkhalter Holding (BRKN.SW) and Bossard Holding (BOSN.SW) were among few other names posting their most recent numbers. In M&A news, ATOS SE (ATO.FP) under the spotlight after local media reported that the French government and the Dassault groups (AM.FP and DSY.FP) are looking into the deal, whilst Les Echos added that Walter Butler joined the Onepoint consortium to take control of Atos; in Italy, Tim (TIT.IM) issued a clarifications to the statements of Eng. Paolucci and to a letter sent by the Merlyn Fund to shareholders; also, Canal+ (VIV.FP) issued the proposed mandatory offer for MultiChoice (MCG.SJ) that was promised on Friday's prelim announcement. On the syndicate front, Oncopeptides (ONCO.SS) announced the final terms for the fully guaranteed SEK314M rights issue, Sensorion (ALSEN.FP) is placing 24.6M new shares at €0.63 each and Swiss Steel Holding AG (STLN.SW) published its €300M rights offering prospectus
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Poxel (POXEL.FP), BP (BP.LN), OMV (OMV.AV), The UNITE Group (UTG.LN), PGS (PGS.NO), Kid (KID.NO), Nedap (NEDAP.NA) and Frequentis (FQT.AV) will be among few other names. Macro-data will include France Feb trade balance, Netherlands Mar final CPI, UK Mar retail sales monitor - BRC and Denmark Feb trade balance
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Basic Resources +1.97%, Autos & Parts +1.29%, Oil & Gas +0.94%, Real Estate+0.91%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.79%, Travel & Leisure +0.67%, Technology +0.65%, Banks +0.62%, Retail +0.57%, Construct & Mtls +0.48%
Underperformers: Media (0.19%), Food & Beverage (0.06%), Telecom +0.04%, Health Care +0.17%, Financial Svcs +0.18%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.19%, Chemicals +0.23%, Utilities +0.28%, Insurance +0.30%
Macro:
ECB Jostling Over Back-to-Back Summer Cuts Has Already Begun (BBG)
Macron 'loved' my tweet sniping at von der Leyen, says French commissioner (Politico)
German factory production expands at fastest rate for a year (FT)
German industrial data points to end of stagnation in the first quarter (ING)
Russia says Ukraine struck nuclear plant, Kyiv denies it was behind the attack (Reuters)
Economic stagnation is coming for Giorgia Meloni's Italy (Telegraph)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+31.4% MIRI.LN (Mirriad Advertising £0.02, +0.01) -- programmatic partnership with TripleLift to scale in-content advertising
+19.4% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €2.32, +0.38) -- The French government and Dassault groups are looking into Atos -- BFMTV; Walter butler joins Onepoint consortium to take control of Atos -- Les Echos
+10.3% BGO.LN (Bango £1.18, +0.11) -- FY earnings
+10.2% AGL.LN (ANGLE £0.14, +0.01) -- to present HER2 assay development programme at AACR
+7.7% ALSEN.FP (Sensorion €0.75, +0.05) -- placement
+5.7% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK72.70, +3.95) -- trading update
+5.1% TGP.LN (Tekmar Group £0.09, -0.00) -- contracts
+3.7% DNO.NO (DNO ASA NOK10.38, +0.37) -- final investment decision has been made for the development of the Brasse field, to be renamed Bestl
+3.4% HUM.SS (Humana AB SEK27.20, +0.90) -- acquires Team Olivia Norge AS for SEK 341M
+3.0% TIT.IM (Telecom Italia €0.23, +0.01) -- issues clarifications to the statements of Eng. Paolucci and to the letter sent by the Merlyn Fund to shareholders (
+2.2% CALTX.SS (Calliditas Therapeutics SEK114.30, +2.50) -- receives notice of allowance for United States patent application covering setanaxib in cancer treatment
+1.1% WITH.FH (WithSecure €1.11, +0.01) -- president and CEO steps down
+0.8% BRKN.SW (Burkhalter Holding CHF97.80, +0.80) -- earnings
+0.7% ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA €4.37, +0.03) -- Mar flows
Notable Decliners
-9.5% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK5.14, -0.54) -- final terms for the fully guaranteed rights issue
-7.6% SAS.SS (SAS SEK0.03, -0.00) -- Mar traffic
-2.8% ICEAIR.IR (Icelandair Group ISK1.06, -0.03) -- Mar traffic
-2.4% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK139.90, -3.40) -- Mar sales
-2.4% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK70.26, -1.76) -- president and CEO steps down
-1.3% STLN.SW (Swiss Steel Holding CHF0.09, -0.00) -- publishes €300M rights offering prospectus and announces the launch of its rights offering
-1.1% GSC1.GR (GESCO SE €17.70, -0.20) -- new CEO
-0.6% AKRBP.NO (Aker BP NOK283.90, -1.60) -- reports Q1 net production
-0.6% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £9.40, -0.06) -- recently detected and intercepted a cyber incident which had involved unauthorised external access to a limited number of its IT systems
-0.6% TLX.GR (Talanx €71.30, -0.40) -- finalises purchase price financing for acquisition of Liberty Mutual in Latin America
-0.4% SIOFF.NO (Siem Offshore NOK36.55, -0.15) -- to sell 9 of its vessels to the major shareholder Siem Sustainable Energy S.a r.l and related companies in exchange for 35% of the company's shares
-0.3% VIV.FP (Vivendi €9.99, -0.03) -- Canal+ issues proposed mandatory offer for MultiChoice and withdraws cautionary announcement
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
France: Kaufman & Broad (KOF.FP), Poxel (POXEL.FP)
DACHs: Frequentis (FQT.AV)
Southern Europe: Public Power Corp. (PPC.GA), Fourlis Holdings (FOYRK.GA)
UK: Alliance Pharma (APH.LN), hVIVO (HVO.LN), Microlise Group (SAAS.LN), Animalcare (ANCR.LN), Ultimate Products (ULTP.LN), Distribution Finance Capital Holdings (DFCH.LN)
Trading Update: BP (BP.LN), OMV (OMV.AV), The UNITE Group (UTG.LN), PGS (PGS.NO), Kid (KID.NO), Nedap (NEDAP.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Apr Sentix Economic Index (5.9) vs consensus (8.3) and prior (10.5)
Switzerland Mar Unemployment Rate (sa) 2.3% vs consensus 2.2% and prior 2.2%
Germany
Feb Trade Balance €21.4B vs consensus €25.1B and prior €27.5B
Feb Industrial Production +2.1% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised +1.3% from +1.0%
Norway Feb Manufacturing Production (1.1%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 24): ($0.86) or (0.99%) to $86.05
€-$ +0.0017 or +0.16% to 1.0856
£-$ +0.0022 or +0.17% to 1.2656
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8578
S&P 500 +0.14%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +2.72%
DAX: +9.33%
CAC: +7.67%
MIB: +13.01%
Stoxx 600: +6.25%
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