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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.21%, Hang Seng (2.18%), Shanghai Composite (0.49%) as of 04:10 ET

Apr 12 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • Asian equities finished mostly lower Friday to end a directionless week for the region. Some small gains in Japan but elsewhere, stocks fell. Sharpest declines in Hong Kong in an across-the-board selloff but with property stocks and REITs underperforming notably. Declines accelerated post disappointing trade data during the afternoon session. South Korea also saw steep losses while there were also declines in Taiwan, Australia and India. Bangkok and Jakarta closed for holidays. US futures higher, Europe opened with solid gains. Dollar stronger again to reach fresh five-month highs AUD weaker, yen at multi-decade highs against the dollar but weakened against the euro. Treasury yields mixed, JGBs mixed, CGBs unchanged near record lows. Crude blends pushing higher with Brent above $90/bl. Gold at fresh record high, industrial metals higher.

    • Asia markets largely shrugging off the positive overnight session on Wall Street and finished lower, the exception being Japan's main boards that closed modestly higher. A sharp correction in Hong Kong to unstitch gains earlier in the week as property stocks fell sharply with more follow through from China Vanke's winding up petition. Traders taking Hong Kong listings down another step post poor trade data out late on which showed a sharp contraction in exports in March.

    • In other macro developments, Bank of Korea left repo rate unchanged as expected following recent inflation reacceleration; the country's unemployment rate rose as job growth weakened to its lowest since early 2021. Singapore's MAS also left policy unchanged amid elevated inflation; separate data showed Singapore's economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in Q1.

    • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) is in discussion to buy a $1.7B stake in HDFC's (50180.IN) consumer lending unit. Mitsui Fudosan (8801..JP) became the latest Japanese company to launch a new long-term management plan and launch a share buyback program. The parent company of CGN New Energy (1811.HK) has revived plans to take the company private, four years after the plan was originally ditched. Hanwha Ocean (042660.KS) representatives said to be in Australia to drum up support for its bid for Austral (ASB.AU).

  • Digest:

    • China exports fall in March and miss consensus by big margins:

      • Customs exports fell 7.5% y/y in March, worse than consensus 2.3% drop and following 7.1% growth in first two months. Imports dipped 1.9%, below consensus 1.4% growth and 3.5% gain in Jan-Feb. Data seen as blow to hopes that global demand would help drive growth in China's economy (Bloomberg). Added China's trade data at odds with signs of improving international demand as sales to US led to expansion in outbound shipments from South Korea and Taiwan. Also in contrast with manufacturing PMI that showed export orders started expanding after contraction for months. Reuters added Chinese manufacturers may face further challenges to ramping up sales overseas as key developed markets are showing no urgency to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions about China's overcapacity in certain industries may bring more trade barriers for its exports. Meanwhile China's imports figure highlighted still sluggish domestic demand, also reflected in yesterday's consumer inflation data, which retreated sharply in March and reignited concerns over deflation.

    • Bank of Korea holds key rate unchanged, adopts cautious tone on future cuts:

      • Bank of Korea held its key base rate unchanged at 3.5% as widely expected as bank continues to grapple with sticky inflation, high household debt, uncertain Fed rate trajectory. Governor Rhee adopted a cautious tone, also as widely forecast, said rate cuts may be difficult if inflation hovers above 2.3% at year end, and it was "difficult to predict rate cuts in H2". Added market must be monitored if US delays its own cut and, while US's pivot allowed BOK to decouple from Fed, recent won weakness still down to strong dollar. Said reform of forward guidance will likely occur next year. Vote in monetary policy board was unanimous and five of six members expect base rate to still be at 3.5% in three months. Separate data Friday showed bank's rate dilemma with country adding fewest jobs in three years as youth employment dipped (Yonhap).

    • Singapore central bank keeps monetary policy steady, Q1 GDP growth accelerates:

      • Monetary Authority of Singapore left its monetary policy settings, and headline and core inflation forecasts unchanged at its April meeting, matching expectations. Said it would maintain prevailing appreciation rate of Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate's policy band (S$NEER), and keep its width and center point, effectively allowing SGD to appreciate to cap imported inflation. Added core inflation could remain elevated before discernable step down in Q4 and into 2025; current monetary policy settings 'appropriate'. Said it expects economy to strengthen this year with growth more broad-based, financial and manufacturing sectors to resume recovery (BusinessTimes). Separate data Friday from MTI showed Singapore economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 from Q4's 2.2% and 3.2% forecast; rose 0.1% q/q versus previous 1.2% sequential growth. Manufacturing and construction contracted, offset by 1.2% services growth boosted by LNY spending, hosting of Taylor Swift concerts that swelled tourist numbers (Bloomberg).

    • China MLF rate expected to remain steady with partial rollover:

      • Reuters consensus poll showed unanimous expectations for PBOC to leave the MLF rate steady at 2.50% on Monday with 77% of respondents pointing to a partial rollover of over CNY170B ($23.49B) in maturing funds. Yuan depreciation constraints are seen to be elevating, prompting some thoughts PBOC is favoring cuts to RRR over policy rates. This is consistent with waning attention on policy rate expectations. Broader Reuters macro survey noted consensus looks for a 25 bp in RRR cut in Q3 and ceased to mention other rates -- partly reflecting sporadic forecasts spread over MLF/LPR as well as the marginal size of expected moves. Also ties in with longstanding market disappointment at the lack of signals for more forceful stimulus. Subdued expectations for the rollover size reflects predictions that signs of loosening in liquidity conditions will reduce demand for MLF loans. Recall that last month's MLF operation revealed a surprising net drain. Article noted yield on 1-year AAA-rated NCDs has fallen consistently to 2.1352%, the lowest since November 2022.

    • Yen market flummoxed by lack of yen intervention:

      • Nikkei discussed market perplexion with the lack of FX intervention even after yen weakened beyond 152 per dollar for the first time since 1990, prompting a reassessment of the seriousness of MOF's jawboning. Noted lack of price action Thursday after FX policy chief Kanda's latest warning that declines were "rapid" and vowed an appropriate response without ruling out any options. Nomura suggested tone of verbal intervention has not intensified since 27-Mar when USD/JPY reached 151.97. Some thoughts lack of intervention reflects assessment that declines consistent with fundamentals and unlikely to be purely driven by speculators. Market reactions to US CPI manifested in broad dollar strength while dovish ECB signals also stand to add to yen pressures. Article also suggested Prime Minister Kishida's current visit to Washington may have played a role in keeping MOF on the sidelines to avoid scrutiny from the US. Attention turns to MOF's next line in the sand though market watchers struggling to extract meaningful hints from official rhetoric. While some see possible intervention at any time at current levels, story cited views that authorities may be waiting for an endogenous bounce before stepping in order to amplify its impact.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +9.0% 042660.KS (Hanwha Ocean): Hanwha reportedly continues to circle Austal

      • +7.8% 8801.JP (Mitsui Fudosan Co.): announces mid-long-term management plan; revises year-end dividend to ¥47/share vs prior guidance ¥37/share; launches up-to-¥40.0B buyback; FY26 net income ¥270B or higher

      • +1.8% 3008.TT (LARGAN Precision): reports Q1 EPS NT$45.79 vs StreetAccount NT$31.86, revenue NT$11.31B vs StreetAccount NT$11.89B and preliminary NT$11.31B

      • +1.5% 1114.HK (Brilliance China Automotive Holdings): appoints Zhang Yue as new CEO, effective today

      • +0.0% 1811.HK (CGN New Energy Holdings): parent reportedly restarts privatization plan

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -4.4% 9983.JP (FAST RETAILING CO.): reports H1 results; guides FY revenue ¥3.030T vs prior guidance ¥3.050T and FactSet ¥3.043T

      • -4.3% 532822.IN (Vodafone Idea): up to INR180B equity raise to be priced in range of INR10-11/sh

      • -0.1% 2651.JP (Lawson): reports FY revenue ¥1.088T vs FactSet ¥1.088T

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • China March

        • Trade balance $58.55B vs consensus $70.2B and $125.2B in Jan-Feb

          • Exports (7.5%) y/y vs consensus (2.3%) and +7.1% in Jan-Feb

          • Imports (1.9%) y/y vs consensus +1.4% and +3.5% in Jan-Feb

      • Japan February

        • Final industrial production (0.6%) m/m vs preliminary (0.1%) and (6.7%) in prior month

          • Operating ratio (0.5%) m/m vs (7.9%) in prior month

          • Production capacity +0.1% y/y vs +0.1% in prior month

      • Singapore Q1

        • GDP +2.7% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.2% in prior quarter

          • GDP +0.1% q/q vs +1.2% in prior quarter

      • South Korea March

        • Unemployment rate 2.8% vs FactSet consensus 3.0% and 2.6% in prior month

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: 80.92 or +0.21% to 39523.55

      • Hang Seng: (373.34) or (2.18%) to 16721.69

      • Shanghai Composite: (14.77) or (0.49%) to 3019.47

      • Shenzhen Composite: (13.88) or (0.81%) to 1707.71

      • ASX200: (25.50) or (0.33%) to 7788.10

      • KOSPI: (25.14) or (0.93%) to 2681.82

      • SENSEX: (569.63) or (0.76%) to 74468.52

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: (0.05) or (0.03%) to 153.2210

      • $-KRW: +7.42 or +0.54% to 1376.0300

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.29%) to 0.6520

      • $-INR: +0.02 or +0.02% to 83.3782

      • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2364

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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