Apr 16 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open mostly lower Wednesday in an extension of risk aversion. Futures in Japan were mixed (though ADRs skewed downside), while Hong Kong and Australia lower. US contracts mildly firmer after mostly softer performance in the cash session weighed down by rate-sensitive sectors. Tech leads mixed with losses in Golden Dragon China index contrasting with gains in SOX. Treasuries also continued declines. Dollar index was up 0.1%. Gold finished up 1.0%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.1%. WTI crude settled down 0.1%.
Confluence of Fed policy repricing, risk aversion and elevated volatility continues. Most of the attention overnight was on the further erosion of rate cut expectations, reinforced by latest Fedspeak and data resilience. Notably, markets now pricing in less than 50 bp of easing this year, contrasting with 150 bp at the start of the year. Powell said recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation. Added will likely take longer for Fed to gain confidence inflation moving back to 2% target. Middle East conflict remains in focus; Israel's war cabinet postponed until Wednesday a third meeting to deliberate on its response to Iran's weekend attack amid international efforts to de-escalate.
Asia transmission still primarily focused on FX amid dollar strength. Growing attention on yuan after yesterday's softer PBOC fixing, prompting views USD/CNY will test 7.3 by quarter-end. Gradual momentum reflects anticipated policy efforts to contain declines through other tools. Ties in with views that monetary easing remains constrained by yuan implications. Attention also remains on yen, which grinded into the upper-154 range vs dollar. MOF continues to issue verbal warnings; markets yet to detect clear signals of an imminent move though levels now seen ripe for intervention at any time.
On the macro front, markets digested latest China data. While Q1 GDP beat expectations, monthly activity indicators showed most of the strength came in the first two months of the year while March readings mostly softened, leaving calls for stronger stimulus intact. IMF slightly upgraded its 2024 global GDP growth forecast and flagged potential upward revisions to China outlook, though reiterated risks from property market weakness and trade tensions. Elsewhere, New Zealand CPI inflation slowed to 4% for the first time since 2021 as expected. Reuters Tankan survey showed sentiment fell back somewhat following the prior month's strength. Regional focus turns to trade data out of Japan and Singapore.
Pre-open Company News:
600521.CH -- Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical receives NMPA generic drug registration approval for torsemide tablets
540777.IN -- StreetAccount Consensus Metrics Preview - HDFC Life Insurance Q4 Earnings
300919.CH -- CNGR Advanced Material guides Q1 net income attributable CNY360-400M vs year-ago CNY341.0M
386.HK -- Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical) initiated buy at Soochow Securities (timing uncertain)
000069.CH -- Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town reports Jan-Mar contracted sales CNY4.40B, (49%) y/y
2257.HK -- Sirnaomics receives FDA specific guidance for further development of STP705, for treatment of squamous cell carcinoma in situ
524816.IN -- FDA publishes Warning Letter sent to NATCO Pharma Ltd following inspection of Kothur, Telangana
HSAI -- Hesai Group trading lower following reporting on GOP efforts seeking to have company delisted from the Nasdaq
7012.JP -- Kawasaki Heavy Industries upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley MUFG
300601.CH -- Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products receives NMPA drug registration approval for live attenuated varicella vaccine
9863.HK -- Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology initiated buy at Western Securities (timing uncertain)
MITRA.BB -- Mithra Pharmaceuticals to present early data from ESTELLE pediatric study at two upcoming congresses
000810.KS -- Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co. upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
1898.HK -- China Coal Energy reports March commercial coal production 10.8M tonnes, (7.5%) y/y
1336.HK -- New China Life Insurance reports Jan-Mar premium income of CNY57.19B
On Deck:
Japan:
Economic:
08:50 JST: Trade Balance NSA (Preliminary); consensus +¥0.5T
08:50 JST: Export NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus +7.7%
08:50 JST: Import NSA Y/Y (Preliminary); consensus (6.4%)
New Zealand:
Economic:
10:45 NZST: CPI Q/Q; consensus +0.8%
India:
Earnings:
Tata Communications (500483.IN), Just Dial (535648.IN)
Singapore:
Earnings:
Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (CMOU.SP), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (CMOU.SP)
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 24): ($7.40) or (0.31%) to $2400.40
WTI Crude (May 24): $0.00 or 0.00% to $85.36
$-¥: +0.40 or +0.26% to 154.6690
$-KRW: +3.07 or +0.22% to 1391.1900
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.57%) to 0.6411
$-INR: +0.08 or +0.10% to 83.6625
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.2362
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