Apr 16 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices ended broadly lower. In sectors, Basic Resources, Banks and Financials the biggest decliners while Food & Beverage relative outperformer.
Middle East tensions continue to weigh on risk sentiment as initial optimism for a de-escalation gives way to fears over full-blown conflict after Israel vowed to respond forcefully. US and allies working to prevent escalation. US media source said US officials expect Israeli response to be limited in scope. Most likely against Iranian military forces or proxies outside country. Iran has threatened to respond "within seconds" to any strike. Note, Israel has said it is not looking to spark all-out war. Bond yields continue to backup, continuing recent hawkish repricing of Fed rate outlook amid firmer US data. Implications for inflation outlook from recent oil price gains. In her first appearance to lawmakers, incoming BoE deputy Lombardelli says decline in inflation to be bumpy. ECB's Lagarde said rates will be cut soon, barring any surprises.
On the macro front, UK labor market data saw increase in unemployment, but wage growth firmer than expected. While March jobless claims +10.9K versus consensus +17.2K and prior +4.1K revised from +16.8K, the ILO unemployment rate increased to 4.2% versus 4.0% forecast and prior 3.9%. The German ZEW economic sentiment indicator improved for fourth consecutive month to the highest level since March 2022 at 42.9 versus consensus 35.9 and prior 31.7. However, assessment of current situation remains deep in negative territory at -79.2 versus consensus -79.0, though up slightly from -80.5 in March. Elsewhere, Italy March final CPI softer than prelim. reading; +0.0% m/m vs preliminary +0.1% while Feb trade balance beats by a wide margin €6.03B vs consensus €3.43B and prior revised €2.50B from €2.66B. In aggregate, Eurozone Feb. trade balance better than expected at €23.6B vs consensus €17.9B and prior €11.4B.
In corporate news, in the Nordics, Ericsson (ERIC.B.SS) and HMS Networks (HMS.SS) reported before the open, whilst Sika Group (SIKA.SW) and Beiersdorf (BEI.GR) were among few othewr names from the DACH to update investors. Elsewhere, B&S Group (BSGR.NA), Hays (HAS.LN) and Alphawave IP Group (AWE.LN) also reported.
On the M&A newsflow, of note, International Paper (IP) acquired DS Smith (SMDS.LN) for shares valued at 415p/sh, media reports Eni (ENI.IM) is weighing the sale of a minority interests in units by the end of the year to raise ~€1.3B. Citing a letter from Sparta Capital Management to the chairman, Sky reports John Wood Group (WG.LN) holder Sparta Capital Management is seeking sale or US listing. MFE-MediaForEurope reportedly held talks in recent months with banks ready to fund potential bid for ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR); of note, ProSiebenSat.1 Media also reported preliminary Q1 numbers after the market close yesterday.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, UK Mar CPI/RPI/PPI input/output and Eurozone Mar final CPI.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.69%), Technology (0.72%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.99%), Telecom (1.04%), Utilities (1.06%), Chemicals (1.10%), Travel & Leisure (1.25%), Consumer Products and Services (1.33%), Construct & Mtls (1.36%), Real Estate (1.42%), Media (1.43%), Retail (1.44%)
Underperformers
Basic Resources (3.02%), Banks (2.49%), Financial Svcs (2.30%), Insurance (2.18%), Autos & Parts (2.08%), Oil&Gas(1.78%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.75%)
Macro:
Central banks:
Lagarde Says ECB Ready to Cut Rates Soon If Inflation Eases More -- Bloomberg
EU:
UK:
British economy hammered by second downgrade in three months -- Telegraph
Germany:
Germany's Scholz: no decoupling from China but need progress on structural issues -- Reuters
France:
Macron's Push to Arm Europe Is Getting More Urgent - and More Dangerous -- Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+6.9% TFBANK.SS (TF Bank SEK188.00, +12.00) -- Q1 earnings
+6.7% BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut CHF1,346.00, +86.00) -- Stifel and UBS upgrades
+5.5% NHOA.FP (NHOA SA €0.61, +0.03) -- commissions energy storage project in Taiwan
+5.1% JAY.LN (Bluejay Mining £0.00, -0.00) -- provide an update on the company's 100% owned Dundas Ilmenite Project located in North-West Greenland.
+4.3% TOP.DC (Topdanmark DKK303.00, +12.60) -- Q1 earnings
+3.5% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF87.80, +3.05) -- Q1 earnings
+3.4% NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group €22.02, +0.70) -- Caixa seeks approval from the Spanish Government to restructure Naturgy's capital - Expansion, citing sources; Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+2.4% PLUS.LN (Plus500 £20.12, +0.47) -- Q1 earnings
+1.8% ERIC.B.SS (Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson SEK57.30, +0.94) -- Q1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-23.8% SDRY.LN (Superdry £0.05, -0.02) -- launches restructuring Plan, Equity Raise and Delisting
-14.2% OMASP.FH (Oma Savings Bank €18.60, -3.02) -- Q1 update; updates FY guidance
-7.7% HMS.SS (HMS Networks SEK429.80, -34.00) -- Q1 earnings; launches cost-saving program of ~ SEK 55M; expects one-off restructuring costs of ~ SEK35M during Q2
-7.4% NFG.LN (Next 15 Group £9.00, -0.70) -- FY earnings
-6.8% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £3.32, -0.24) -- FY trading update; CFO steps down
-6.5% BILI.A.SS (Bilia SEK124.00, -8.50) -- Nordea downgrade
-6.1% ACX.SM (Acerinox €9.79, -0.64) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-6.1% VOE.AV (Voestalpine €25.08, -1.64) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-5.8% GCM.LN (GCM Resources £0.08, -0.00) -- raises £2.0M via direct subscription of new ordinary shares at 6.5p/share
-4.9% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK312.90, -15.70) -- Autonomous Research downgrade
-4.9% RWA.LN (Robert Walters £3.63, -0.19) -- Q1 trading update
-4.9% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.11, -0.01) -- completes retail offer, raised gross proceeds of £1M
-4.7% PHNX.LN (Phoenix Group Holdings £4.93, -0.24) -- Barclays downgrade
-4.6% PRV.LN (Porvair £6.28, -0.30) -- H1 trading update
-4.3% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK65.30, -2.92) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-4.3% HAS.LN (Hays Plc £0.89, -0.04) -- Q3 trading update
-3.7% MONY.LN (Moneysupermarket.com Group £2.18, -0.08) -- Q1 trading update
-2.7% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF25.46, -0.72) -- Minister says UBS faces capital hit as high as $25B
-2.1% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £5.00, -0.11) -- FY trading update
-2.1% PDL.LN (Petra Diamonds £0.40, -0.01) -- Q3 operations update
-2.1% FSJ.LN (James Fisher & Sons £2.94, -0.06) -- FY earnings
-2.0% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €13.77, -0.29) -- to transfer its 100%-owned subsidiary Hug Engineering to the Belgian OGEPAR Group for an enterprise value of c. €55M
-1.9% TM17.LN (Team17 Group £2.45, -0.05) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: ASML Holding (ASML.NA), TomTom (TOM2.NA)
DACHs: Lalique (LLQ.SW), R. Stahl (RSL2.GR)
France: Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits (MBWS.FP)
Nordics: Volvo (VOLV.B.SS), Exsitec (EXS.SS), Nilarngruppen (NIL.B.SS), MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS), Tryg (TRYG.DC), NEL (NEL.NO)
Southern Europe: Viscofan (VIS.SM), MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE (MFEA.IM), OVS (OVS.IM)
UK: Saga (SAGA.LN)
Trading Update: Antofagasta (ANTO.LN), Entain (ENT.LN), easyJet (EZJ.LN), Hays (HAS.LN), Brooks MacDonald Group (BRK.LN), HELLA & Co. (HLE.GR), La Francaise des Jeux (FDJ.FP), Verimatrix (VMX.FP), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Feb Trade Balance €23.6B vs consensus €17.9B and prior €11.4B
Germany Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator 42.9 vs consensus 35.9 and prior 31.7
UK
Mar Claimant Count Change +10.9K vs consensus +17.2K and prior revised +4.1K from +16.8K
Feb ILO Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs consensus 4% and prior revised to 4% from 3.9%
Italy
Feb Trade Balance €6.03B vs consensus €3.43B and prior revised €2.50B from €2.66B
Mar CPI y/y +1.2% vs consensus +1.3%
Markets:
WTI Crude (24-May): +$0.20 or +0.23% to $85.61
€-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.0626
£-$ (0.0015) or (0.12%) to 1.2432
€-£ +0.0009 to 0.8548
S&P 500 (0.12%)
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +1.13%
DAX: +6.06%
CAC: +5.16%
MIB: +9.99%
Stoxx 600: +4.01%
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