Apr 18 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets generally closed higher. Portugal +1,7%, Spain +1.3% and Greece +1.1% Lead outperformers, whilst Denmark (0.8%) and Norway (0.3%) lead underperformer.
Sentiment attempting to stabilise after hawkish repricing of Fed rate path with futures now only pricing in 1-2 rate cuts in 2024. Comes amid pickup in inflation concerns, reflecting sticky services components and input cost pressures from surging commodity prices and accompanied by increasingly hawkish-leaning Fedspeak. Middle East another drag as markets await Israeli response to Iranian missile barrage and possible Iranian reprisal.
A quiet macro calendar in Europe. Switzerland Mar Trade Balance came in at CHF3.54B vs consensus CHF3.2B; of note, Swiss watch exports recorded a sharp decline in March with value down (16.1%) y/y to CHF 2.0B. Several central banks speakers due today. BoE Governor Bailey said late Wednesday next month's inflation number to show a strong drop after firmer-than-expected March reading. More remarks from ECB officials, suggesting willingness to diverge from Fed policy. Schnabel said the ECB should consider overhauling its forecasts to improve communication. June ECB easing now seen conditional on developments in the Middle East not changing inflation outlook or risks. All ECB speakers including Lagarde have hinted at potential inflation risks via energy markets. The IMF warned in its Fiscal Monitor report that the UK government's fiscal policy risks worsening the country's public finances, as it projected an increase in the debt burden over the next five years.
In Corporate news; of note, in France, Danone (BN.FP) Q1 sales beat; company also reiterated 2024 guidance; Forvia (FRVIA.FP) Q1 sales and order intake slight beat; organic growth also seen better than expected. Edenred (EDEN.FP) Q1 operating revenue, LFL growth beat; guidance reiterated. Out of DACHs, ABB Limited (ABBN.SW) Q1 EBITA beat and company also upgraded FY EBITA margin outlook to 18% vs 16.9% prior. Schindler Holding (SCHN.SW) Q1 EPS, net income beat whilst revenue missed; group reaffirmed FY guidance. Sartorius (SRT3.GR) Q1 EPS, revenue and orders missed. Out of the Nordics, Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS) reported Q1 net profit from cont ops SEK809M vs consensus SEK835.3M with FY24 guidance and mid-term outlook reiterated. Nokia (NOKIA.FH) Q1 EPS and operating profit beat, whilst sales missed; company also reiterated FY guidance. In the UK, Deliveroo (ROO.LN) is trading higher post Q1 sale and FY24 guidance maintained. Rentokil Initial (RTO.LN) lower post Q1 trading update.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 15-Apr to 19-Apr attached) Warehouses De Pauw (WDP.BB), Sodexo (SW.FP), Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), Dometic (DOM.SS), Elanders (ELAN.B.SS), Elisa (ELISA.FH), Uponor (UPONOR.FH), Alma Media (ALMA.FH), Gofore (GOFORE.FH), Norske Skog (NSKOG.NO), Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG.LN), Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT.FP) and COMET Holding (COTN.SW) . UK Mar retail sales, Apr consumer confidence - GfK, Germany Mar PPI, Spain Feb trade balance
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Banks +1.60%, Utilities +1.46%, Real Estate +1.34%, Autos & Parts +0.97%, Telecom +0.96%, Travel & Leisure +0.79%, Retail +0.76%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.68%, Insurance +0.60%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.56%, Media +0.35%,
Underperformers:
Technology (0.77%), Health Care (0.49%), Financial Svcs (0.43%), Energy(0.40%), Consumer Products and Services +0.03%, Construct & Mtls +0.04%, Basic Resources +0.21%, Chemicals +0.22%,
Macro/Peripheral markets
Geopolitics
US imposes sanctions on Iranian drone makers - FT
Iran threatens to build a nuclear bomb - The Telegraph
Iran tells Israel 'our hands are on the trigger' and warns it knows where its nuclear sites are - Sky News
Central Banks
EU
EU Proposes UK Talks to Ease Stays for Students, Young Workers - Bloomberg, The Guardian
EU to consider Poland's defense spending in deficit limit, Polish finance minister says - Reuters
Savings banks and cooperative banks fear for their protection systems - Handelsblatt
UK
Britain decided not to list genomics as critical infrastructure, deputy PM says - Reuters
Labour destroyed documents that could have revealed Rayner's living arrangements - The Telegraph
Tory MP Mark Menzies suspended over alleged misuse of campaign funds - BBC, The Times
Germany
Financial assets of private households rise to record high - Handelsblatt
Lindner: Too little work is done in Germany - Handelsblatt
Greece
Route back to payment plan - ekathimerini
Greece to submit request for subsidy from the Recovery Fund in May - ekathimerini
Poland
Tusk's Bickering Coalition Faces Test in Polish Abortion Debate - Bloomberg
Norway
Norwegian and American authorities agree to start formal negotiations on strategic mineral cooperation - release
Croatia
Croatia's Premier Vows to Form Majority After Vote Setback - Bloomberg
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+20.4% MANO.LN (Manolete Partners £1.48, +0.25) -- trading update
+13.0% AKAST.NO (Akastor NOK12.20, +1.40) -- notes arbitration award received on the DRU contracts
+10.5% AQ.SS (AQ Group SEK564.00, +54.00) -- Q1 earnings
+9.5% SIX2.GR (Sixt €94.45, +8.20) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+9.2% CARR.LN (Carr's Group £1.20, +0.11) -- H1 earnings
+9.0% MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE €3.54, +0.29) -- FY earnings
+8.3% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €14.40, +1.13) -- Q1 revenue
+8.2% OVS.IM (OVS €2.31, +0.18) -- FY earnings
+8.1% LBG.LN (LBG Media £0.74, +0.05) -- FY earnings
+7.9% PLEJD.SS (Plejd AB SEK230.00, +17.00) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% AFISH.NO (Arctic Fish Holding NOK59.00, +4.00) -- Q1 harvest
+6.7% TEL2.B.SS (Tele2 SEK98.78, +6.22) -- Q1 earnings
+6.2% ARBN.SW (Arbonia CHF12.56, +0.72) -- to divest Climate Division to Midea Electrics Netherlands for an enterprise value of €760M
+5.9% VLX.LN (Volex £3.02, +0.17) -- prelim FY earnings
+5.6% ROO.LN (Deliveroo £1.29, +0.07) -- Q1 update
+5.2% EDEN.FP (Edenred €46.71, +2.32) -- Q1 earnings
+4.7% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK133.40, +6.00) -- Q1 earnings
+4.1% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €22.49, +0.89) -- orders
+3.9% LINV.LN (LendInvest £0.27, +0.01) -- trading update
+3.8% MYCR.SS (Mycronic SEK369.00, +13.40) -- Q1 earnings
+3.1% EZJ.LN (EasyJet £5.31, +0.16) -- prelim H1 earnings
+2.2% HKY.NO (Havila Kystruten NOK0.78, +0.02) -- revolving credit facility of NOK200M
+2.0% NG.LN (National Grid £10.29, +0.20) -- trading update
Trading Lower:
-15.8% DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech €207.50, -39.30) -- Q1 earnings
-15.3% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €277.30, -50.60) -- Q1 earnings
-8.5% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.89, -0.08) -- ~€100M convertible bonds
-7.8% VITR.SS (Vitrolife SEK169.00, -14.30) -- Q1 earnings
-7.4% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF86.35, -6.85) -- completes the placement of CHF 200M convertible bonds
-7.0% RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial £4.18, -0.32) -- trading update
-6.9% KOMN.SW (Komax Holding CHF161.80, -12.00) -- Stifel downgrade
-6.7% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.07, -0.00) -- Q3 operation and production update
-6.7% DNLM.LN (Dunelm Group £10.01, -0.72) -- trading update
-5.9% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK291.10, -18.10) -- Q1 update
-5.8% ELK.NO (Elkem NOK19.64, -1.20) -- Q1 earnings
-5.8% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF23.50, -1.45) -- CFO to step down
-5.5% VIT.B.SS (Vitec Software Group SEK503.00, -29.50) -- Q1 earnings
-4.9% KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik SEK110.35, -5.80) -- Q1 earnings
-4.9% GRNG.SS (Gränges SEK114.10, -5.90) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-3.5% NEXAM.SS (Nexam Chemical Holding SEK3.13, -0.12) -- Q1 earnings
-3.1% FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux €35.16, -1.14) -- Q1 revenue
-3.0% KEYS.LN (Keystone Law Group £6.45, -0.20) -- FY earnings
-2.1% CEY.LN (Centamin £1.27, -0.03) -- Q1 production
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Warehouses De Pauw (WDP.BB)
France: Sodexo (SW.FP)
Nordics: Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), Dometic (DOM.SS), Elanders (ELAN.B.SS), Elisa (ELISA.FH), Uponor (UPONOR.FH), Alma Media (ALMA.FH), Gofore (GOFORE.FH), Norske Skog (NSKOG.NO)
UK: Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG.LN)
Trading Update: Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT.FP), COMET Holding (COTN.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Netherlands Mar Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.7%
Switzerland Mar Trade Balance CHF3.54B vs consensus CHF3.2B and prior revised CHF3.68B from CHF3.66B
Mar Swiss Watch Exports decline (16.1%) to CHF2.00B
Eurozone Feb Construction Output (0.4%) y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior revised (0.3%) from +0.8%
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 24): ($0.23) or (0.28%) to $82.46
€-$ (0.0012) or (0.11%) to 1.0662
£-$ +0.0006 or +0.05% to 1.2461
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8555
S&P 500 +0.51%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +1.86%
DAX: +6.48%
CAC: +6.36%
MIB: +11.60%
Stoxx 600: +4.32%
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