Apr 18 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed amidst Asian equites advancing Thursday. Markets shook off early weakness with Hang Seng leading China markets higher amid rebound in property stocks. US contracts advancing afterhours. Treasury yields reversing lower while Australian curve bull flattening following Aussie jobs data. Yen remains near 34-year trough against dollar. Crude just above March lows following overnight sell-off. Base metals tracking equity market gains. Gold steady. Bitcoin rebounding.
On today's agenda, EU's Vestager speaks at the Merger Anniversary Conf 2024. Also, there's an informal meeting of EU consumer protection ministers (through Fri). Release of European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Mar new passenger car registrations for the EU + EFTA + UK is also due.
In central banks, Bundesbank's latest monthly report to be published. Riksbank's Bunge speech at 8:30CET at a meeting organised by Handelsbanken. ECB's de Guindos presents the ECB Annual Report 2023 at 9:15CET at EP Committee. Norges Bank Q1 survey of bank lending released at 10:00CET and holds its annual market seminar starting at the same tome. Riksbank's Jansson speech at 16:00CET at a seminar organised by Söderberg och Partners. SNB's Martin and Moser speech at 18:00CET title "The implementation and transmission of the SNB's monetary policy during the recent tightening cycle" at a Money Market event in Zurich. ECB's Schnabel speech at 19:30CET at the 2024 EU-US Symposium. Bank of Portugal's Centeno, Bank of Lithuania's Simkus panellists at 18:30BST and Croatia National Bank's Vujcic panellist at 20:00BST at event organized by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee .
Macroeconomic updates today include: Switzerland Mar trade balance, Eurozone Feb construction output, Netherlands Mar unemployment rate.
In corporate news, Sartorius (SRT3.GR) reports Q1 EPS €1.01 vs FactSet €1.10 and reaffirms FY guidance. Further in the DACH region, ABB Limited (ABBN.SW) reports Q1 EPS $0.49 vs consensus $0.47 and nudges up FY24 margin expectations. Hypoport (HYQ.GR) sees prelim Q1 volume of mortgage finance transactions processed on Europace +16.8% y/y to €15.1B.
In France, Danone (BN.FP) reports Q1 revenue €6.79B vs StreetAccount €6.70B and confirms 2024 guidance. Forvia (FRVIA.FP) posts Q1 revenue €6.51B vs consensus €6.51B with FY24 guidance confirmed and said on track to reach Power25 Ambition. Edenred (EDEN.FP) and Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP) are also out with Q1 numbers and confirmed FY guidance.
Out of the Nordics, Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS) reports Q1 net profit from cont ops SEK809M vs consensus SEK835.3M with FY24 guidance and mid-term outlook reiterated. Nokia (NOKIA.FH) reports Q1 Comparable EPS €0.09 vs FactSet €0.07 and confirms FY guidance.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB's Vasle sees rates much closer to 3% at year-end - Reuters
Lagarde Says Euro-Zone Economy Is Showing Signs of Recovery - Bloomberg
ECB June rate cut looks increasingly likely, but there are 'still some caveats,' German central bank chief says - CNBC
BoE's Andrew Bailey insists UK 'on track' to quell inflation - FT
ECB Should Consider Overhaul of Forecasting, Schnabel Says - Bloomberg
Michael Gove vows to reduce ground rents to 'peppercorn' levels over time - FT
Netherlands Mar Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.7%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- reports Q1 EPS €1.01 vs FactSet €1.10 [5 est, €0.83-1.27]; reaffirms FY guidance
SCHN.SW (Schindler Holding) -- reports Q1 EPS CHF2.05 vs StreetAccount CHF1.88
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- reports Q1 EPS $0.49 vs consensus $0.47; nudges up FY24 margin expectations and guides Q2
HYQ.GR (Hypoport) -- reports prelim Q1 volume of mortgage finance transactions processed on Europace +16.8% y/y to €15.1B
Nordics
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- reports Q1 Comparable EPS €0.09 vs FactSet €0.07 [18 est, €0.02-0.12]; confirms FY guidance
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.38 vs FactSet €0.33 [15 est, €0.30-0.36]
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- reports Q1 net profit from cont ops SEK809M vs consensus SEK835.3M; FY24 guidance and mid-term outlook reiterated
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- reports Q1 operational EBIT €201M vs FactSet €237.4M [13 est, €195.6-323M]
ELK.NO (Elkem) -- reports Q1 EPS (NOK0.69) vs FactSet (NOK0.30) [2 est, (NOK0.40)-(0.20)]
France
EDEN.FP (Edenred) -- reports Q1 Operating revenue €625M vs consensus €596.5M; confirms FY guidance
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- reports Q1 underlying EPS €0.86 vs FactSet €0.90 [2 est, €0.86-0.94]; FY outlook confirmed
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- reports Q1 revenue €710M, +7% vs year-ago €662M
BN.FP (Danone) -- reports Q1 revenue €6.79B vs StreetAccount €6.70B; 2024 guidance confirmed
FRVIA.FP (Forvia) -- reports Q1 revenue €6.51B vs consensus €6.51B; FY24 guidance confirmed and on track to reach Power25 Ambition
Southern Europe
BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli) -- reports Q1 revenue €309.1M vs StreetAccount €308.1M; Q1 sales reinforces soundness of forecast of FY24 sales growth of ~+10%
VIS.SM (Viscofan) -- reports Q1 net income €31.6M vs FactSet €29.8M [4 est, €27.1-32M] (post EU close 17-Apr)
OVS.IM (OVS) -- reports FY adjusted net income €75.9M vs FactSet €73.8M
MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE) -- provides preview of FY23 results; net profit ex Prosiebensat1 €217.5M vs year-ago €184.7M
Benelux
SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group) -- trading update: reports Q1 revenue €652M vs year-ago €634M
M&A
IDS.LN (International Distributions Services) -- Follow-up: International Distributions Svc PLC rejected the EP Group proposal
AKE.FP (Arkema) -- announces acquisition of majority stake in Proionic; terms not disclosed
PGS.NO (PGS ASA) -- PGS and TGS receives Norwegian competition clearance for merger
COLR.BB (Colruyt Group) -- obtains final approval from BCA to acquire 28 Match and 26 Smatch stores
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- EQT AB reportedly weighing options for Azelis Group following inbound M&A interest -- Bloomberg
NORVA.SS (Norva24 Group AB) -- agrees to acquire 100% stake in Vitek Miljø AS; terms undisclosed
ARBN.SW (Arbonia) -- to divest Climate Division to Midea Electrics Netherlands for an enterprise value of €760M
Other
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- CORRECTION: ASML Holding needs order run rate a bit over €4B per quarter to reach midpoint of 2025 guidance
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- proposes change to its governance structure; Arthur Sadoun would become Chairman and CEO of the Board
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- responds to statements from holder Bluebell Capital
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- shareholders approve annual dividend increase of 0.8% to CHF12.70 from CHF12.60
KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik) -- to propose an extraordinary cash distribution of SEK 23 per share
DOCM.SW (DocMorris) -- successfully completes the placement of CHF 200M convertible bonds due 2029
SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore) -- secures $250M term loan facility
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- Coalition of investors at TotalEnergies call for the separation of the functions of chairman of the board and CEO -- Les Echos
AKAST.NO (Akastor ASA) -- notes arbitration award received on the DRU contracts; estimated accounting gain of ~$55M will be booked in Q1 2024 financials
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas)-- to neutral from sell at UBS
GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
IDS.LN (International Distributions Services) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group) -- to neutral from underperform at Mediobanca
TOP.DC (Topdanmark) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
Downgrades
SSPG.LN (SSP Group) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
CGCBV.FH (Cargotec) -- to hold from buy at Carnegie Securities
APPS.SM (Applus Services) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
Initiations
HLN.LN (Haleon) -- buy at HSBC
Data
Nikkei +0.48% to 38144.73
Hang Seng +0.94% to 16403.86
Shanghai Composite +0.31% to 3080.82
S&P futures +17.3 vs prior close of 5062.3
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0686
$-¥ (0.08) or (0.05%) to 154.30
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