Apr 21 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Monday trade. Nikkei futures flat while Hang Seng and ASX futures signaling mild gains on the open. S&P 500 contracts advancing after index capped off third consecutive weekly drop. Australian yield curve bear steepening coming after Treasury rates backed up further last week. Dollar narrowly mixed as yen holds near 34-year low. Crude little changed after sliding 4% last week amid the Middle East tensions. Gold continues to consolidate near record high. Bitcoin little changed.
Sentiment weighed down by Fed rate path repricing with markets now eyeing just 1-2 cuts in 2024 as some Fed officials warn potential for no cuts at all this year. Hawkish repricing come amid pickup in concerns about inflation stickiness, reflecting resilient US economy/labor market and spike in commodity prices. AI momentum also waning with semis sliding into correction amid yield backup and valuation concerns. Middle East another overhang amid Iran-Israel tit-for-tat.
China expected to leave 1Y and 5Y rates unchanged after PBOC kept MLF rate on hold last week while withdrawing medium-term liquidity. Recall February's surprise cut to 5Y LPR viewed as indication of stepped up support to housing. However, subdued March economic and property data have reinforced calls for more forceful stimulus to sustain economic recovery. Officials have noted scope for further easing while economists continue to look for cuts to MLF rate, LPR and/or RRR.
BOJ Governor Ueda repeated conditions to remain accommodative with policy normalization to occur gradually. Also flagged eventual JGB purchase taper, as well as likelihood of another rate hike if underlying inflation continues to trend higher. Ueda's comments come ahead of this week's BOJ meeting where central bank is expected to leave policy settings unchanged. Economists split on policy change timing with BOJ seen hiking in Q3 or Q4 this year.
US-China tensions another focus. US House passed legislation that includes TikTok 'divest or ban' component, expected to pass next week. Comes as Secretary of State Blinken visits China this week with a warning to Beijing against supporting of Russia. Trade tensions ramped up last week after Biden proposed sharp increase in China steel and aluminum imports while administration opened probe into Chinese shipbuilders. While ultimate impact of actions on China seen as marginal, situation underscores low ceiling for bilateral relations.
Pre-open Company News:
300413.CH -- Mango Excellent Media reports Q1 net income attributable CNY472.3M vs FactSet CNY587.6M [2 est, CNY514-661.3M], (13.9%) y/y
601666.CH -- Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining chairman Yanhe Li resigns due to work rearrangements, effective immediately
6409.TT -- CORRECTION: Voltronic Power Technology March revenue was released on 9-Apr
300413.CH -- Mango Excellent Media confirms FY preliminary results; decalres dividend per share CNY0.18 vs year-ago CNY0.13
6920.JP -- Lasertec upgraded to buy from outperform at CLSA
F34.SP -- Wilmar International expects no material impact to FY24 results from Russian missile hitting its tank terminal facility in Ukraine
9613.JP -- NTT DATA Group upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie
600329.CH -- Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group downgraded to overweight from buy at TF Securities
600754.CH -- Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels initiated underperform at Macquarie
2379.TT -- Realtek Semiconductor downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie
^BOJ, ^JAPAN -- BOJ Governor Ueda reinforces gradual policy normalization trajectory:
4816.JP -- Toei Animation Co. initiated 2-neutral at SMBC Nikko
4503.JP -- Astellas confirms unfavorable district court decision concerning its motion for preliminary injunction against Lupin and Zydus generic versions of Myrbetriq
China Ministry of Agriculture: weekly wholesale livestock and poultry prices (12-Apr to 18-Apr)
532210.IN -- City Union Bank upgraded to add from hold at ICICI Securities
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
09:30 CST: 1 Year and 5 Year Loan Prime Rate; consensus unchanged
Hong Kong:
Earnings:
China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (81.HK)
Australia:
Earnings:
AMA Group (AMA.AU)
New Zealand:
Earnings:
Genesis Energy (GNE.NZ)
India:
Earnings:
Reliance Industries (500325.IN)
Singapore:
Earnings:
CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U.SP), CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U.SP)
Market Data:
Gold (Jun 24): ($12.60) or (0.52%) to $2401.20
WTI Crude (May 24): +$0.01 or +0.01% to $83.15
$-¥: (0.04) or (0.02%) to 154.5890
$-KRW: (1.22) or (0.09%) to 1373.5000
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.15% to 0.6426
$-INR: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 83.3702
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 7.2394
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