Apr 29 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, tracking gains across Asian markets (benchmark indexes all notably higher with Shenzhen, Hang Seng and Taiex outperforming; Japan closed)
Recall that last week in Europe, equity markets ended higher, with the STOXX 600 closing up +1.7% for the week and rebounding after hitting one-month lows. The FTSE 100 outperformed (gained 3.1% last week) with upside leadership coming from the basic resources sector on M&A news. In broader sector moves, there was also support from technology amid a positive tailwind from US earnings, while banks performed well on the recent repricing in the rates market and several big names reported earnings.
The week ahead sees EU Parliament election debate, UK local elections, US FOMC and Norges Bank interest rate decisions, Q1 preliminary GDPs and Apr preliminary CPIs from across the region as well as another flurry of earnings/updates from the likes of Air France-KLM (AF.FP), A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC), AXA (CS.FP), Banco Santander (SAN.SM), GSK (GSK.LN), Shell (SHEL.LN), Societe Generale (GLE.FP), Stellantis (STLAM.IM), Vivendi (VIV.FP) and Volkswagen (VOW.GR). Note that on Wednesday, Labor Day holiday sees many of the region's markets closed.
In corporate news highlights this morning, Philips (PHIA.NA) reports Q1 adj EPS €0.21 vs consensus €0.23 on Revenue €4.14B vs consensus €4.15B; continues to expect FY24 3-5% comp sales growth and adj EBITA margin of 11%-11.5%; Spanish banks eyed as BBVA (BBVA.SM) reports Q1 net income €2.20B vs StreetAccount €2.00B and Unicaja Banco reports Q1 net income €111M vs FactSet €88.8M. Elsewhere, Vivendi (VIV.FP) reports Q1 revenue €4.28B vs consensus €4.16B; Organic growth +5.4% vs consensus +4.4%; updates on study of the feasibility of the split project. ATOS (ATO.FP) eyed as France's government reportedly sends offer to Atos proposing to take over parts of the company that it considers to be strategic
European macro data releases out today include Eurozone Apr economic/industrial sentiment, Germany Apr preliminary CPI, Sweden Q1 preliminary GDP, Mar retail sales, Spain Apr preliminary CPI, Denmark Mar retail sales, Belgium Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr CPI, Ireland Q1 preliminary GDP, Mar retail sales
Today, in Spain, PM Sanchez set to announce the decision on his future following court's decision to launch an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling. Media and analysts speculate he could resign, call for snap elections, or there maybe a vote of no confidence.
Elsewhere, Annual EU Budget Conf 2024 takes place, speakers include IMF's Georgieva at 15:30CET, EU's Hahn's 16:15 CET. EU's Šef�?ovi�? speech at the Business Circle Luncheon organised by the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, EU's Simson, Sinkevi�?ius and Hoekstra attend the G7 Ministers' Meeting on Climate, Energy and Environment (through Tue). Informal meeting of EU's General Affairs Council (through Tue). NORDEFCO (Nordic defense cooperation between Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland and Denmark) meeting in the Faroe Islands (through Tue).
In central banks, Bank of Spain's de Cos speech at 9:30CET at Encuentro de Economía organized by HOY whilst Riksbank's Flodén panellist at 15:50CET at event organised by the Swedish Securities Markets Assn. ECB's de Guindos speaks at 21:20CET at event organised by Euro50 Group. Lithuania Central Bank's Kuniyoshi participates in an online meeting of the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC). POLITICO 2024 election debate watch party - Maastricht Debate starts at 19:00CET
Macro/politics
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips) -- reports Q1 adj EPS €0.21 vs consensus €0.23; continues to expect FY24 3-5% comp sales growth and adj EBITA margin of 11%-11.5%
VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- reports Q1 revenue €4.28B vs consensus €4.16B; Organic growth +5.4% vs consensus +4.4%; updates on study of the feasibility of the split project :
BBVA.SM (BBVA.SM) -- reports Q1 net income €2.20B vs StreetAccount €2.00B
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- reports Q1 net income €111M vs FactSet €88.8M [10 est, €80-102M]
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- updates on Postbank takeover litigation matter; notes expected legal provision in Q2
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- publishes its Financial Condition Report 2023; as per 1-Jan, Group Swiss Solvency Test ratio 234%
P911.GR (Porsche) -- reports Q1 revenue €9.01B vs FactSet €9.38B [8 est, €8.82-10.04B]
FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards) -- announces transactions including partially guaranteed rights issue; reports preliminary Q1 results
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- reports Q1 EPS €2.11 vs FactSet €2.01 [2 est, €1.98-2.03]
RECT.BB (Recticel) -- Trading Update: Q1 revenue €140.6M, +10% vs year-ago €127.7M; reaffirms FY guidance
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Logitech International (LOGN.SW), BAWAG Group (BG.AV), MorphoSys (MOR.GR), Sto SE & Co. KGaA (STO3.GR), GK Software (GKS.GR), PharmaSGP Holding (PSG.GR)
France: Waga Energy (WAGA.FP)
Nordics: Nokian Renkaat (TYRES.FH), Oma Savings Bank (OMASP.FH), Ratos (RATO.B.SS),
Southern Europe: Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG.SM), Lottomatica Group (LTMC.IM), Digital Value (DGV.IM), Ibersol (IBS.PL)
UK: Oxford Biomedica (OXB.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Recticel (RECT.BB)
DACHs: Grammer (GMM.GR)
France: Bollore (BOL.FP), Exclusive Networks (EXN.FP), Vicat (VCT.FP), Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Vetoquinol SA (VETO.FP), Deezer (DEEZR.FP)
Nordics: Remedy Entertainment (REMEDY.FH), Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC)
UK: Beazley (BEZ.LN)
M&A
IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group) -- EU Commission sends Statement of Objections over IAG's proposed acquisition of Air Europa
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- France's government sends offer to Atos proposing to take over parts of the company that it considers to be strategic - Bloomberg
APPS.SM (Applus Services) -- Manzana Spain Bidco and Amber EquityCo, S.L.U. apply for authorisation to raise offers to acquire Applus Services
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- Seri Industrial confirms in ongoing negotiations with Leonardo and Invitalia aimed at acquiring a majority stake in Industria Italiana Autobus
AAL.LN (Anglo American), BHP (BHP Group) -- reportedly considering revised offer for Anglo American - Reuters
MOR.GR (Morphosys) -- dealing with new safety risk related to pelabresib, which could complicate planned sale to Novartis - STAT News
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- EU's provisional deadline to rule on Deutsche Lufthansa's acquisition of 41% stake in ITA Airways extended to 13-Jun
EPSIL.GA (Epsilon Net) -- Ginger Digital BidCo (consortium including National Bank of Greece) offers to acquire Epsilon Net for €12/share in cash
Thoma Bravo eyeing opportunities in Australia - The Australian
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- EU's CHMP adopted a positive opinion recommending the approval of Roche's OCREVUS for its multiple sclerosis (MS) indications
RENX.LN (Renalytix) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI)
ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- announces ADX71149 Phase 2 epilepsy study did not achieve statistical significance for the primary endpoint of time for patients to reach baseline seizure count when ADX71149 was added to standard of care.
Other
PHIA.NA (Koninklijke Philips) -- updates on Respironics litigation
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- US DoJ ends diesel-emissions investigation of Mercedes Benz; no charges to be filed - Handelsblatt
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- to assess options for possible settlement in litigation over Postbank takeover - Reuters
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- In light of approach from BHP, Anglo American defends record of chairman Stuart Chambers - Mail on Sunday
IDS.LN (International Distributions Services) -- CWU indicates willingness to cut Royal Mail's Saturday deliveries - Sunday Times
GF.SW (Georg Fischer) -- announces that, effective today, its GF Uponor division is renamed as GF Building Flow Solutions
ARIS.IM (Ariston Holding) -- Russia temporarily takes control of Ariston Thermo Rus
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $63.8M, (36.3%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
HHS Secretary Becerra releases statement on proposed menthol rule
White House reportedly reverses decision on proposed plan to ban menthol cigarettes -- media report
Key rating changes
Upgrades
HOLM.B.SS (Holmen) -- to hold from sell at DnB Markets
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
KEMIRA.FH (Kemira) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux) -- short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
BFSA.GR (Befesa) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
BETSB.SS (Betsson) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
ENEA.SS (Enea) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
NOD.NO (Nordic Semiconductor) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins) -- to overweight from underweight at JPMorgan
Downgrades
SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- to underperform from neutral at Oddo
Initiations
DOU.GR (Douglas) -- buy at Deutsche Bank, buy at Citi, outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, buy at Jefferies, buy at Goldman Sachs, buy at UBS
Deutsche Numis initiates AO.LN, BOO.LN, CURY.LN, others
SRP.LN (Serco Group) -- buy at HSBC
Data
Nikkei closed
Hang Seng +1.06% to 17837.39
Shanghai Composite +0.86% to 3115.13
S&P futures +14.5 vs prior close of 5131.5
€-$ +0.0027 or +0.25% to 1.0725
$-¥ (1.10) or (0.70%) to 156.81
€-¥ (0.73) or (0.43%) to 168.14
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