May 07 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished higher, near best levels. Financials and technology best performers; autos the biggest decliners. US equity markets mostly higher in midday trading. Bonds firmer, with US 10-year yield off ~5 bps at 4.44%. Bund 5 bps lower at 2.43%. Gilts 5 bps weaker. Dollar weaker versus euro, but firmer elsewhere. Oil down. Gold down. Industrial metals higher.
On the macro front, German factory orders unexpectedly dropped (0.4%) in March versus consensus for +0.5% increase and prior (0.8%) drop revised down from +0.2% gain; trade data saw exports increase in March. Eurozone retail sales beat at +0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.6%. BRC update showed UK retail sales sharply lower in April on bad weather. BRC update showed UK retail sales sharply lower in April on bad weather. Total sales down (4.0%) y/y after (3.5%) drop in March, while on a like-for-like basis sales down (4.4%) vs +3.2% gain in prior month. UK Halifax house price data showed little changed in April at +1.1% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%. Construction PMI highlights saw UK record fastest rate of output since February 2023.
Nothing incremental for European central bank news. ECB rhetoric appears to be shifting attention to growth with inflation edging back to target. Analysts expect the BoE to maintain rates at 5.25% this week amid growing confidence in lower inflation forecasts.
On the earnings front, out of the UK, BP (BP.LN) posted Q1 underlying replacement cost net profit $2.72B below consensus $2.87B. Frontier Developments (FDEV.LN) posted FY trading update with projected revenue for FY24 of at least £85M vs FactSet £83.0M and Adjusted EBITDA now anticipated to be better than previously guided. Out of DACHs, UBS Group (UBSG.SW), Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR), Geberit (GEBN.SW), Zalando (ZAL.GR), Fresenius Medical Care (FME.GR), Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR), Heidelberg Materials (HEI.GR) released latest market updates. In France, Arkema (AKE.FP) traded higher post better-than-expected Q1 EBITDA and EPS. Bouygues (EN.FP) was down post Q1 net income, current operating profit miss. Valneva (VLA.FP) also down post Q1 earnings update. In Italy, Davide Campari-Milano (CPR.IM) posted better-than-expected Q1 numbers.
In M&A, Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM) rejects BBVA's (BBVA.SM) unsolicited, indicative and conditional proposal; believes that the proposal significantly undervalues the potential of Banco Sabadell and its standalone growth prospects. Richemont (CFR.SW) acquires Italian jewelry maison Vhernier. Rexel (RXL.FP) announces acquisition of US wireless infrastructure products and solutions company Talley. Airbus (AIR.FP) has finalized the acquisition of U.S.-based Aerovel and its unmanned aerial system (UAS), Flexrotor. Glencore (GLEN.LN) sells its controlling stake in Volcan Compañia Minera to Transition Metals AG (XTM.CN).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Financial Svcs +2.47%, Technology +1.83%, Utilities +1.74%, Banks +1.73%, Chemicals +1.65%, Real Estate +1.52%, Health Care +1.51%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +1.20%
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (0.06%), Oil & Gas(0.02%), Telecom (0.01%), Consumer Products and Services +0.59%, Travel & Leisure +0.61%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.65%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.85%, Media +0.97%, Construct & Mtls +0.97%, Basic Resources +1.08%, Insurance +1.12%
Macro:
Central Banks:
BoE to leave policy on hold for ninth month running (London Times)
ECB's de Cos says June rate cut viable if inflation path remains intact (Bloomberg)
UK:
Britain's economic recovery 'picking up pace' (London Times)
Sunak admits Tories may not win general election and claims UK heading for hung parliament: After last week's local elections (Sky News)
New SNP leader Swinney vows fresh chapter for party (BBC)
Germany:
German Chamber of Commerce (DIHK) said German exports are expected to stagnate this year, following a 1.8% decline in 2023 (Reuters)
German factory orders unexpectedly dropped in sign of enduring weakness while exports rebound (Reuters, Bloomberg)
Political party in Germany 'calls for kebabs to be subsidised' (Sky News)
Geopolitics:
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Italian troops deployed against wild boar to defend ham industry (FT)
Greece:
Steps to block oil transfers off Greek coast (Kathimerini)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+15.5% CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding NOK100.00, +13.45) -- Q1 earnings
+15.2% SOLB.BB (Solvay €35.05, +4.63) -- Q1 earnings
+15.1% VAR1.GR (VARTA €12.19, +1.60) -- CEO to step down
+14.3% SGF.IM (Sogefi €3.08, +0.39) -- exercises put option for sale of Filtration Division to Pacific Avenue Capital Partners
+12.8% SHA.GR (Schaeffler €6.36, +0.72) -- Q1 earnings
+12.7% BIOG.B.SS (BioGaia SEK128.10, +14.40) -- Q1 earnings
+12.6% IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies €36.29, +4.07) -- Q2 earnings
+11.7% OERL.SW (OC Oerlikon Corp. CHF4.70, +0.49) -- Q1 earnings
+10.0% PACT.SS (Proact IT Group SEK114.60, +10.40) -- Q1 earnings
+9.0% CLIME.B.SS (Climeon SEK1.01, +0.08) -- Q1 earnings
+8.5% ZAL.GR (Zalando €26.52, +2.08) -- Q1 earnings
+7.6% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF26.79, +1.89) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% ELG.GR (Elmos Semiconductor €81.80, +5.60) -- Q1 earnings
+6.9% ARISE.SS (Arise SEK41.10, +2.65) -- Q1 earnings
+6.7% CPR.IM (Davide Campari-Milano €10.07, +0.63) -- Q1 earnings
+6.0% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments £2.81, +0.16) -- FY trading update; Liberum Capital, Peel Hunt upgrades
+5.6% NEXN.LN (Nexxen International £2.37, +0.13) -- will begin a new repurchase program today for a further $50M of ordinary shares
+4.7% GEBN.SW (Geberit CHF539.20, +24.00) -- Q1 earnings; announces new up to €300M share buyback program
+3.8% KENDR.NA (Kendrion €13.22, +0.48) -- Q1 earnings
+3.3% COFA.FP (Coface €15.18, +0.48) -- Q1 earnings
+3.3% OPTOMED.FH (Optomed €5.00, +0.16) -- Q1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-18.3% BICO.SS (BICO Group SEK36.92, -8.28) -- changes method for impairment test of goodwill resulting in retroactive impairment of goodwill for 2022 and 2023; Q1 earnings
-14.1% SINCH.SS (Sinch SEK21.47, -3.53) -- Q1 earnings
-11.4% ACR.NO (Axactor NOK4.42, -0.57) -- Q1 earnings
-10.1% CTM.SS (Catena Media SEK6.78, -0.76) -- Q1 earnings
-9.9% MACF.LN (Macfarlane Group £1.28, -0.14) -- Q1 trading update
-9.6% KHG.FH (KH Group €0.60, -0.06) -- Q1 earnings
-8.8% SZG.GR (Salzgitter €22.22, -2.14) -- prelim Q1 earnings; lowers FY guidance
-7.7% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €11.51, -0.96) -- Q1 earnings
-7.1% BMN.LN (Bushveld Minerals £0.01, -0.00) -- enters binding term sheet with Southern Point Resources Fund I S.A. LP to conditionally sell the entire Vanchem asset for $40.6M
-7.0% ANORA.FH (Anora Group €4.70, -0.36) -- Q1 earnings
-6.1% FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care €37.21, -2.40) -- Q1 earnings
-5.6% GIG.NO (Gaming Innovation Group NOK31.05, -1.85) -- Q1 earnings
-5.0% RTX.DC (RTX A/S DKK95.00, -5.00) -- Q1 earnings
-4.6% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK0.54, -0.03) -- Q1 earnings
-4.5% ORS.IM (Orsero €13.68, -0.64) -- Q1 earnings
-4.3% JYSK.DC (Jyske Bank DKK555.00, -25.00) -- Q1 earnings; announces DKK 1.5B share repurchase programme
-3.7% JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich €34.52, -1.32) -- Q1 earnings
-3.6% SKB.GR (Koenig & Bauer €12.90, -0.48) -- Q1 earnings
-3.5% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast DKK842.40, -30.20) -- Q2 earnings
-2.7% TETY.SS (Tethys Oil SEK34.70, -0.95) -- Q1 earnings
-2.2% EEZY.FH (Eezy €1.31, -0.03) -- Q1 earnings
-1.9% EXL.GR (Exasol €2.52, -0.05) -- prelim Q1 earnings
-1.5% EN.FP (Bouygues €34.83, -0.52) -- Q1 earnings
-1.1% KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers NOK104.80, -1.20) -- Q1 earnings
-1.0% SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers €51.92, -0.54) -- Q2 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: VERBUND (VER.AV), Osterreichische Post (POST.AV), Lenzing (LNZ.AV), FACC (FACC.AV)
Benelux: Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BB), Euronav (EURN.BB), Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (AD.NA), Pharming Group (PHARM.NA)
Denmark: NKT (NKT.DC), TORM (TRMD.A.DC), Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC), DFDS (DFDS.DC), ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC), Skjern Bank (SKJE.DC)
Finland: Kojamo (KOJAMO.FH), Mandatum (MANTA.FH), Sanoma (SANOMA.FH), Etteplan (ETTE.FH), Incap (ICP1V.FH)
France: Alstom (ALO.FP)
Germany: 1&1 (1U1.GR), Aurubis (NDA.GR), Auto1 Group (AG1.GR), BayWa (BYW6.GR), Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), Bechtle (BC8.GR), Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR), CompuGroup Medical (COP.GR), Continental (CON.GR), Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAN.GR), EDAG Engineering Group (ED4.GR), Evonik Industries (EVK.GR), Formycon (FYB.GR), Fresenius SE (FRE.GR), GEA Group (G1A.GR), GFT Technologies (GFT.GR), Henkel (HEN.GR), IONOS Group (IOS.GR), Jenoptik (JEN.GR), Knaus Tabbert (KTA.GR), Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR), Lanxess (LXS.GR), Munich Re (MUV2.GR), OHB (OHB.GR), PNE (PNE3.GR), PUMA (PUM.GR), Rhon-Klinikum (RHK.GR), RTL Group (RRTL.GR), SAF-HOLLAND (SFQ.GR), SGL Carbon (SGL.GR), Siemens Energy (ENR.GR), SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR), Stabilus (STM.GR), STEMMER IMAGING (S9I.GR), Sto (STO3.GR), Stroer (SAX.GR), SUSS MicroTec (SMHN.GR), Synlab (SYAB.GR), United Internet (UTDI.GR), Vitesco Technologies Group (VTSC.GR), ZEAL Network (TIMA.GR)
Italy: TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN.IM), Nexi (NEXI.IM), BPER Banca (BPE.IM), Industrie De Nora (DNR.IM), D'Amico International Shipping (DIS.IM)
Norway: Aker (AKER.NO), Mowi (MOWI.NO), Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI.NO), SpareBank 1 SMN (MING.NO), TGS (TGS.NO), Veidekke (VEI.NO), Elopak (ELO.NO), PGS (PGS.NO), Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (WWI.NO), DNO (DNO.NO), SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge (NONG.NO), LINK Mobility Group Holding (LINK.NO), Multiconsult (MULTI.NO), Elmera Group (ELMRA.NO), Hexagon Composites (HEX.NO), ECIT (ECIT.NO)
Portugal: Corticeira Amorim (COR.PL)
Spain: Amadeus IT Group SA (AMS.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM), CIE Automotive (CIE.SM), Fluidra (FDR.SM), Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings (LOG.SM)
Sweden: Skanska (SKA.B.SS), Securitas (SECU.B.SS), Millicom International Cellular (TIGO.SS), Sagax (SAGA.B.SS), Camurus (CAMX.SS), Hufvudstaden (HUFV.A.SS), Concentric (COIC.SS), Fasadgruppen Group (FG.SS)
Switzerland: Landis+Gyr Group (LAND.SW), Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW)
UK: boohoo Group (BOO.LN)
Trading Update: Renishaw (RSW.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN), Permanent TSB Group Holdings (PTSB.ID), secunet Security Networks (YSN.GR), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Digia (DIGIA.FH), SBM Offshore (SBMO.NA), Bekaert (BEKB.BB)
Traffic: SAS (SAS.SS)
CMD/events: Renishaw (RSW.LN), AFC Energy (AFC.LN), Encavis (ECV.GR) sustainability
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Mar Retail Sales +0.7% y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and prior revised (0.5%) from (0.7%)
+0.8% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised (0.3%) from (0.5%)
UK Apr
Construction PMI 53.0 vs consensus 50.4 and prior 50.2
Halifax House Price Index +1.1% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
+0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior- revised to +0.9% from (1.0%)
France Mar Trade Balance (€5.5B) vs consensus (€5.0B) and prior revised (€5.6B) from (€5.2B)
Germany
Mar Trade Balance €22.3B vs consensus €22.4B and prior €21.4B
Apr Construction PMI 37.5 vs consensus 40.0 and prior 38.3
Mar Industrial Production (0.4%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised (0.8%) from +0.2%
Switzerland Apr Unemployment Rate (sa) 2.3% vs consensus 2.3% and prior 2.3%; 2.3% vs consensus 2.4% and prior 2.4%
Netherlands Apr CPI +2.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.7%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 24): ($0.18) or (0.23%) to $78.30
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.06% to 1.0775
£-$ (0.0017) or (0.14%) to 1.2545
€-£ +0.0017 to 0.8592
S&P 500 +0.26%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.51%
DAX: +10.02%
CAC: +7.06%
MIB: +12.81%
Stoxx 600: +7.31%
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