May 09 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher. Portugal +1.5% and Austria +1.1% lead outperformers, whilst Spain (0.9%) and Italy (0.1%) buck the higher trend and lead underperformers. Of note, Nordic and Swiss markets were closed for a bank holiday.
Sentiment slightly stronger following US weekly initial jobless claims. Unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near ~210K while continuing claims were in line. Market reaction positive given a labor-market slowdown could play into Fed rate-cut hopes. BoE left key rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected. Vote split saw two members vote for a cut, up from one at prior meeting. BoE forecasts inflation below target in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Bailey said more evidence needed inflation will stay low before cutting.
Lack of other major catalysts with market in wait-and-see mode ahead of next meaningful signals on US inflation, Fed policy and economic growth outlook. Positioning talk crept into the narrative amid signs investors struggling to justify adding to exposure. Solid earnings continue to underpin sentiment as beat rates remain elevated in US and Europe, while Japan set to hit fresh record highs for FY net earnings.
On European macro data front, RICS update showed UK house price balance steady in March. No other major European updates of note.
In corporate news, BPER Banca (BPE.IM) reported yesterday after the close Q1 net income attributable €457.3M vs FactSet €419.1M and reaffirmed FY recurring guidance. Also in Italy, Prysmian (PRY.IM) posted this morning Q1 net income attributable €185M vs StreetAccount €164.3M and said FY results expected at upper of of guidance range. Nexi SpA (NEXI.IM) Q1 EBITDA €361.7M vs FactSet €353.0M, reaffirms FY guidance and launches share buyback.
In Spain, Telefonica (TEF.SM) reported Q1 OIBDA €3.21B vs consensus €3.17B and said it is on track to meet 2024 financial guidance. In Portugal, EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.PL) released Q1 net income attributable €68M vs StreetAccount €61.0M.
In the UK Trading updates included: ECK.LN RAT.LN, MGAM.LN, DLN.LN, SPI.LN, HBR.LN, SYNT.LN,WG.LN, IMI.LN, GENL.LN, BBY.LN.
On M&A front, BBVA (BBVA.SM) decides to launch previously disclosed offer to acquire Banco de Sabadell (SAB.SM). BBVA hosting analyst presentation today at 9:30CET in connection with offer to acquire Banco de Sabadell.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 6-May to 10-May attached)Eurocommercial Properties (ECMPA.NA), Borussia Dortmund (BVB.GR), Allane (LNSX.GR), GESCO (GSC1.GR), REC Silicon (RECSI.NO), Mediobanca (MB.IM), DiaSorin (DIA.IM), De'Longhi (DLG.IM), Iveco Group (IVG.IM), Rai Way (RWAY.IM), Banca Sistema (BST.IM), Aeffe (AEF.IM), CRH (CRH.LN), International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), TBC Bank Group (TBCG.LN), Viel & Cie (VIL.FP), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN) and Belysse Group (BELYS.BB) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will includeUK Q1 preliminary GDP, Mar trade balance, industrial/manufacturing production, construction output, Apr GDP tracker - NIESR, Italy Mar industrial production, Norway Apr CPI, PPI, Sweden Mar industrial production, Denmark Apr CPI, Greece Mar trade balance, industrial production.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +0.96%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.85%, Energy+0.85%, Utilities +0.65%, Technology +0.57%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.57%, Construct & Mtls +0.55%, Consumer Products and Services +0.31%, Chemicals +0.21%,
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (0.85%), Travel & Leisure (0.84%), Banks (0.65%), Retail (0.57%), Financial Svcs (0.43%), Insurance (0.28%), Real Estate (0.24%), Media (0.04%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.01%, Health Care +0.10%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Putin Renews Nuclear Threats Against West at Military Parade - Bloomberg
Zelenskiy replaces special operations chief for second time in six months - Reuters
Joe Biden warns Israel he will halt US weapon supplies if it invades Rafah - FT
UK won't follow US in halting arms to Israel if it invades Rafah - Politico
BOE
Bank of England considering bigger-than-expected rate cuts, says Bailey - The Telegraph, BBC
EU
Economy scars voters in run-up to EU election - Reuters
UK
Tory mayor says responsibility for 'chaos' in Conservative party lies with Rishi Sunak - The Telegraph
UK economy to strengthen after two years of stagnation - The Times
Admitting Elphicke leaves some in Labour asking how far Starmer will go - The Guardian
UK Mortgage Arrears Rise as Borrowing Rates Squeeze Homeowners - Bloomberg
Germany
"We need more money for our security" - Handelsblatt
Hungary
Xi Touts China-Hungary Relations as a Good Blueprint for Europe - Bloomberg
Spain
Pedro Sánchez's separatist amnesty on the ballot in Catalonia election - FT
Greece
Tourism season starts with 80,000 job vacancies - Ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+7.4% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £3.00, +0.21) -- trading update
+7.0% NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA €6.10, +0.40) -- Q1 earnings; Bryan Garnier upgrade
+6.2% CCT.LN (Character Group £2.93, +0.17) -- H1 earnings
+6.2% CCT.LN (Character Group £2.93, +0.17) -- H1 earnings
+5.4% NHOA.FP (NHOA SA €0.59, +0.03) -- closes acquisition of remaining 40% stake of KLC
+4.7% WDL1.GR (NAKIKI €6.65, +0.30) -- claim of ~€30M arising from the supply of COVID masks during the corona pandemic is being examined as part of a litigation financing enquiry
+4.3% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €131.75, +5.45) -- order
+4.2% AVON.LN (Avon Protection £12.86, +0.52) -- contract
+4.1% PRY.IM (Prysmian €55.02, +2.18) -- Q1 earnings; Bryan Garnier upgrade
+3.2% PAF.LN (Pan African Resources $0.24, +0.01) -- narrows FY production guidance
+2.6% SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell €1.85, +0.05) -- BBVA decides to launch previously disclosed offer to acquire Banco de Sabadell
+2.5% SYNT.LN (Synthomer £2.85, +0.07) -- trading update
+2.3% ITV.LN (ITV £0.76, +0.02) -- trading update
+1.9% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €68.55, +1.29) -- new chairman
+1.8% QDT.FP (Quadient €18.80, +0.34) -- contract
+1.6% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group £3.25, +0.05) -- initiated buy at Deutsche Numis
Trading Lower:
-10.3% BFF.IM (Banca Farmafactoring €10.96, -1.26) -- Q1 earnings
-6.4% BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria €9.63, -0.66) -- to launch previously disclosed offer to acquire Banco de Sabadell
-5.0% III.LN (3i Group £28.27, -1.48) -- FY earnings
-4.9% ARGX.BB (argenx €349.90, -18.00) -- Q1 earnings
-4.7% ECK.LN (Eckoh £0.41, -0.02) -- trading update
-3.8% BCG.LN (Baltic Classifieds Group £2.38, -0.10) -- holder Antler EquityCo S.à r.l. sold 27M shares of BCG at a price of 223p/share raising gross sale proceeds of £60.2M; onthe back of strong deal momentum placing was upsized by ~25%
-1.9% DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co. £11.13, -0.22) -- trading update
-1.9% M5Z.GR (Manz AG €7.40, -0.14) -- to sell its Hungarian subsidiary Manz Hungary Kft.
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Eurocommercial Properties (ECMPA.NA)
DACHs: Borussia Dortmund (BVB.GR), Allane (LNSX.GR), GESCO (GSC1.GR)
Nordics: REC Silicon (RECSI.NO)
Southern Europe: Mediobanca (MB.IM), DiaSorin (DIA.IM), De'Longhi (DLG.IM), Iveco Group (IVG.IM), Rai Way (RWAY.IM), Banca Sistema (BST.IM), Aeffe (AEF.IM)
UK: CRH (CRH.LN), International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), TBC Bank Group (TBCG.LN)
Trading Update: Viel & Cie (VIL.FP), S4 Capital (SFOR.LN), Belysse Group (BELYS.BB)
Data:
Economics:
N/A
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 24): +$0.20 or +0.25% to $79.19
€-$ +0.0030 or +0.28% to 1.0778
£-$ +0.0013 or +0.11% to 1.2511
€-£ +0.0015 to 0.8615
S&P 500 +0.35%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +8.38%
DAX: +11.55%
CAC: +8.54%
MIB: +13.11%
Stoxx 600: +7.89%
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