May 15 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher. Greece +1.5%, Spain +1.1% and Switzerland +1.0% lead outperformers, whilst Norway (0.5%), Finland and Austria (0.4%) lead underperformers. Real Estate, Telecom and Utilities lead; Personal/HHold Goods, Retail and Energy lag. Follows mixed close on Tuesday.
Sentiment boosted by lower US CPI data than expected, with first y/y deceleration in three months. Core CPI in-line. Data puts stock into September Fed rate cut. Bank of America survey recently suggested higher inflation the biggest tail risk to the economy in the last 13 years. Higher US PPI on Thursday largely shrugged off yesterday as components feeding into Fed's preferred PCE deflator moderated. Also, Fed Chair Powell described the results as mixed and reiterated that he did not expect the next rate move to be a hike.Busy calendar in Europe. Eurozone Q1 Prelim GDP met expectations, while industrial production was better than forecast. France final CPI in-line with preliminary release. Riksbank minutes. ECB's Villeroy and Muller reiterated probable rate cut in June but uncertain path thereafter. EU Commission maintained broad GDP outlook for 2024, but cut 2025 estimate. German GDP forecast cut for both 2024 and 2025. IEA issues its Oil Market Report. Press reports suggest some recovery of the European CRE sector. In the US, CPI softer than expected. Retail Sales for April also missed expectations. May Empire State worse than expected, and priced paid also softer. Slovakia PM Fico shot in assassination attempt.
It was another busy day for earnings in the DACHs region, CECONOMY (CEC.GR), Allianz (ALV.GR), E.ON SE (EOAN.GR), Merck KGaA (MRK.GR), ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR), Commerzbank (CBK.GR), Talanx (TLX.GR) and Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR) are among the notable companies in the region to update investors. In France, yesterday after the close, Emeis (ORP.FP), Euronext (ENX.FP) and Eutelsat Communications (ETL.FP) issued Q1/Q3 updates. In Benelux, ABN AMRO Bank (ABN.NA) and InPost (INPST.NA) reported strong Q1 numbers, with the latter cconfirming its FY24 guidance.
In Noridcs, H. Lundbeck (HLIN.B.DC), FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.DC), Austevoll Seafood (AUSS.NO), Neste (NESTE.FH), Getinge (GETI.B.DC) updated investors. In the UK, Britvic (BVIC.LN), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), Compass Group (CPG.LN), Experian (EXPN.LN), Imperial Brands (IMB.LN), Vertu Motors (VTU.LN) and TUI Group (TUI.LN) are among others in the region to update investors with their latest numbers.
In M&A, The Australian reported, citing recent comments from BHP (BHP.LN) CEO Mike Henry, speaking at the BofA Securities 2024 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference, that he expressed disappointment over the discussion leaks and noted that without engagement from the Anglo (AAL.LN) board, a formal offer would not materialize before the 22-May deadline.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 13-May to 17-May attached) Wienerberger (WIE.AV), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV), KBC Group (KBC.BB), EXMAR (EXM.BB), Lucas Bols (BOLS.NA)Vallourec (VK.FP), Elior Group (ELIOR.FP), Siemens (SIE.GR), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), Suedzucker (SZU.GR),Okeanis Eco Tankers (OET.NO), Arendals Fossekompani (AFK.NO), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), The Sage Group (SGE.LN), BT Group (BT.A.LN), United Utilities Group (UU.LN), and easyJet (EZJ.LN), will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Norway Q1 GDP, Italy Apr final CPI, Mar trade balance, Netherlands Apr unemployment rate
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Real Estate +3.60%, Utilities +1.73%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.31%, Travel & Leisure +1.21%, Technology +1.13%, Financial Svcs +1.12%, Construct & Mtls +1.02%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.61%,
Underperformers:
Energy(0.92%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.33%), Autos & Parts (0.32%), Basic Resources (0.21%), Consumer Products and Services (0.20%), Media +0.13%, Insurance +0.13%, Banks +0.16%, Chemicals +0.34%, Retail +0.34%, Telecom +0.58%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
EU
EU to freeze Georgia's accession bid if it enacts Russia-inspired law - FT
US calls on Europe to cooperate on punitive tariffs against China - Handelsblatt
UK
Rishi Sunak challenged over early release of dangerous criminals - BBC
Royal Mail 'minded to accept' £3.5bn takeover offer by Czech billionaire -The Telegraph
France
France pushes New Caledonia voting reform despite deadly riot - FT
Germany
Scholz Advisers See German Economy Picking Up Into Next Year - Bloomberg
Netherlands
Dutch nationalist Wilders on verge of forming right-wing government - Reuters
Italy
The EU raises its expectations for Italy's GDP in 2024 to 0.9%. Giorgetti: "EU estimates in line with ours, the Superbonus weighs heavily" - Ansa
Greece
EU Commission sees Greece's growth rate at 2.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025 - ekathimerini
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+20.6% KLR.LN (Keller Group £13.70, +2.34) -- trading update
+20.1% HTG.LN (Hunting £4.46, +0.75) -- order
+13.8% NYXH.BB (Nyxoah €9.72, +1.18) -- Q1 earnings
+13.6% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK238.80, +28.60) -- SEK28.2M net royalty from Eisai's FY23 regarding Leqembi sales
+12.4% IGR.LN (IG Design Group £1.91, +0.21) -- initiated buy at Liberum Capital
+12.2% ITAB.SS (ITAB Shop Concept SEK28.50, +3.10) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+12.1% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.04, -0.00) -- termination of Trinity's temporary suspension of certain of its rights in Casino
+11.1% ZTF.LN (Zotefoams £4.80, +0.48) -- ReZorce update
+10.8% BVIC.LN (Britvic £10.17, +0.99) -- H1 earnings
+10.3% ABDX.LN (Abingdon Health £0.11, +0.01) -- product launch
+9.5% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding NOK189.80, +16.40) -- Q1 earnings
+8.4% CIRCA.NO (Circa Group NOK1.10, +0.09) -- Q1 earnings
+8.1% F3C.GR (SFC Energy €22.60, +1.70) -- Q1 earnings
+7.9% EXPN.LN (Experian £37.44, +2.74) -- FY earnings
+7.9% EFUEL.NO (Everfuel NOK8.90, +0.65) -- Q1 earnings
+7.5% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF16.98, +1.18) -- Q1 earnings
+7.3% INPST.NA (InPost €16.38, +1.11) -- Q1 earnings
+5.8% HLUN.B.DC (H. Lundbeck DKK38.00, +2.08) -- Q1 earnings
+5.6% IMB.LN (Imperial Brands £19.84, +1.05) -- H1 earnings
+4.8% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €165.85, +7.55) -- Q1 earnings
+4.7% SALT.LN (MicroSalt £1.01, +0.04) -- patent issuance for Novel Low Sodium Salt
+4.0% BSS.IM (Biesse €12.90, +0.49) -- Q1 earnings
+4.0% BERG.B.SS (Bergman & Beving SEK258.50, +10.00) -- Q4 earnings
+3.5% TIETO.FH (Tietoevry €19.57, +0.66) -- resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley
+3.4% LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group NOK51.40, +1.68) -- Q1 earnings
+3.1% MEKKO.FH (Marimekko €13.80, +0.42) -- Q1 earnings
+2.3% AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood NOK95.00, +2.15) -- Q1 earnings
+2.2% AAG.GR (Aumann €18.04, +0.38) -- Q1 earnings
Trading Lower:
-14.7% NESTE.FH (Neste €18.93, -3.26) -- lowers FY guidance; JPMorgan downgrade
-14.7% 1SXP.GR (SCHOTT Pharma $31.82, -5.50) -- Q2 earnings; owers FY guidance
-14.3% MAAT.FP (Maat Pharma €8.00, -1.34) -- places 2.4M shares (including 125K on behalf of holder) at €8/share through Stifel Europe; completes global offering
-12.7% SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden SEK134.40, -19.50) -- Q1 earnings
-10.6% NCH2.GR (thyssenkrupp nucera €11.96, -1.42) -- Q2 earnings
-8.5% STWK.SS (Stockwik Forvaltning SEK15.08, -1.40) -- Q1 earnings
-7.6% CREO.LN (Creo Medical Group £0.32, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-7.0% IVACC.SS (Intervacc SEK4.37, -0.33) -- Q1 earnings
-6.9% ECNL.IM (Aquafil €3.26, -0.24) -- Q1 earnings
-6.6% DOV.IM (doValue €2.07, -0.15) -- Q1 earnings
-6.4% TEKNA.NO (Tekna Holding NOK5.60, -0.38) -- Q1 earnings
-6.2% ABN.NA (ABN AMRO Bank €15.67, -1.03) -- Q1 earnings
-6.2% ODL.NO (Odfjell Drilling NOK50.00, -3.30) -- Q1 earnings
-5.4% TPE.GR (PVA TePla €19.15, -1.09) -- Q1 earnings; new CFO
-5.3% VOLUE.NO (Volue NOK32.95, -1.85) -- Q1 earnings
-5.2% EOLU.B.SS (Eolus Vind SEK77.00, -4.20) -- Q1 earnings
-5.1% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €5.59, -0.30) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-4.9% ELIMP.NO (Elektroimport+â-+ren NOK9.94, -0.51) -- Q1 earnings
-4.9% DOFG.NO (DOF Group NOK89.55, -4.65) -- Q1 earnings
-4.7% I3E.LN (i3 Energy £0.11, -0.01) -- Q1 earnings
-4.6% THUNDR.SS (Thunderful Group SEK1.70, -0.08) -- Q1 earnings
-4.3% NORBT.NO (Norbit NOK64.90, -2.90) -- Q1 earnings
-4.2% GEO.IM (Geox €0.64, -0.03) -- Q1 revenue
-3.9% CA.FP (Carrefour €16.14, -0.66) -- JPMorgan downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Wienerberger (WIE.AV), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)
Benelux: KBC Group (KBC.BB), EXMAR (EXM.BB), Lucas Bols (BOLS.NA)
Denmark: Zealand Pharma (ZEAL.DC), Nilfisk Holding (NLFSK.DC), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC), North Media (NORTHM.DC)
France: Vallourec (VK.FP), Elior Group (ELIOR.FP)
Germany: Siemens (SIE.GR), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), Suedzucker (SZU.GR), Grand City Properties (GYC.GR), alstria office REIT (AOX.GR), All for One Group (A1OS.GR)
Greece: Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings (EUROB.GA), Alpha Services & Holdings (ALPHA.GA), HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE.GA)
Italy: SNAM (SRG.IM)
Norway: Okeanis Eco Tankers (OET.NO), Arendals Fossekompani (AFK.NO), Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO), Kid (KID.NO), Odfjell Technology (OTL.NO)
Portugal: The Navigator Co. (NVG.PL)
Sweden: NIBE Industrier (NIBE.B.SS), Addtech (ADDT.B.SS), Sweco (SWEC.B.SS), MEKO (MEKO.SS), Viva Wine Group (VIVA.SS)
Switzerland: Swiss Re (SREN.SW)
UK: The Sage Group (SGE.LN), BT Group (BT.A.LN), United Utilities Group (UU.LN), easyJet (EZJ.LN), Grainger (GRI.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN), Helios Towers (HTWS.LN), Future (FUTR.LN), Auction Technology Group (ATG.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: Aegon (AGN.NA), Vastned Retail (VASTN.NA), EVS Broadcast Equipment (EVS.BB)
France: VINCI (DG.FP), Pernod Ricard (RI.FP), Aeroports de Paris ADP (ADP.FP), Eurazeo (RF.FP)
Switzerland: Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW), Avolta (AVOL.SW)
UK: Vistry Group (VTY.LN), Convatec Group (CTEC.LN), Restore (RST.LN), Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ.LN)
CMD/events: Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Sartorius (SRT3.GR), Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP), PVA TePla (TPE.GR)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Mar Industrial Production (1%) y/y vs consensus (1.2%) and prior (6.4%)
Q1 GDP +0.4% y/y vs preliminary +0.4%
Apr CPI
France +2.2% y/y vs preliminary +2.2%; +0.5% m/m vs preliminary +0.5%
Sweden +3.9% y/y vs consensus +4.0% and prior +4.1%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.1%
Q1 Preliminary GDP
Finland (0.4%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (1.8%); +0.5% q/q vs consensus +0.2% and prior (0.7%)
Netherlands (0.7%) y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (0.4%)
Norway Apr Trade Balance NOK65.3B vs consensus NOK57.2B and prior revised NOK63.3B from NOK64.0B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jun 24): +$0.14 or +0.18% to $78.16
€-$ +0.0052 or +0.48% to 1.0872
£-$ +0.0076 or +0.60% to 1.2667
€-£ (0.0011) to 0.8584
S&P 500 +0.85%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.21%
DAX: +12.64%
CAC: +9.24%
MIB: +16.52%
Stoxx 600: +9.55%
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