May 20 ,2024
Synopsis
European indices are set to open higher amidst positive session in Asia. Nikkei outperforming as Greater China, Korea and Australian markets log milder gains. S&P 500 futures up slightly after US markets logged fresh record highs last week. Yen a touch weaker against most currencies. Dollar steady elsewhere. Broad-based gains in metals with gold and copper hitting fresh record highs. Crude slightly up. Bitcoin drifting higher.
China left 1Y and 5Y LPRs unchanged as expected after PBOC kept MLF rate steady last week. Commerce Ministry also announced anti-dumping investigation into thermoplastics imports from US and EU following Biden administration's tariff hike. Also warned of countermeasures against EU anti-subsidy probes. In geopolitical news, Iran President Raisi's helicopter crashed in remote part of the country. Iran media reported Raisi confirmed to have died along with others, including Iran's foreign minister.
On the agenda for today in Europe, in central banks, BOE's Broadbent speech at 10:00BST at a central bank workshop on the monetary transmission mechanism. Riksbank's Thedéen speech at 12:00CET at the annual meeting of the Swedish Economic Assn and Riksbank's Jansson speech at 14:00CET at event organised by Swedish Investment Fund Assn. Spain's economy minister Cuerpo among government ministers speaking at an event held by Cinco Dias. In UK, following MPs question on defence at 14:30BST there's a general debate on Ukraine. Of note, G7 finance ministers meeting gets underway on May 24-25 in Italy with central bankers to speak. Further, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland are closed today for Whit Monday.
Light earnings schedule for today with Big Yellow Group (BYG.LN), Kainos Group (KNOS.LN), Likewise Group (LIKE.LN), Fourlis Holdings (FOYRK.GA) due to report along with trading update from Freelance.com (ALPRE.FP).
On the macro front, Germany Apr PPI, Spain Mar trade balance, Portugal Apr PPI, UK May house price index - Rightmove due.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB's Vasle indicated June likely appropriate for starting rate cuts, though future decisions remain open (Bloomberg)
UK set for slower inflation than Eurozone and US (FT)
UK's post Brexit border arrangements to cost $6B (Reuters)
Britain's Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points, says Opinium poll (Reuters)
Steelmakers suggest lagging EU on carbon tax will see shipments 'diverted' to Britain (FT)
G7 leaders to discuss €30bn loan for Ukraine using Russian assets (The Guardian)
Finland wary of China's growing Russia trade ties amid Ukraine war, EU de-risking (SCMP)
UK government views Russia-China alliance as direct threat to Western nations, urging increased military aid to Ukraine (Bloomberg)
China state media says Beijing ready to take countermeasures against EU if it continues subsidy probes (Bloomberg) while Beijing announces anti-dumping probe on chemical from EU, US, Japan and Taiwan (SCMP)
Suspect in assassination attempt on Slovak PM may not have been 'lone wolf', minister says - Sky News
Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi has died after helicopter crash - Sky News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- FY net income attributable €1.92B vs FactSet €1.89B [18 est, €1.82-1.96B]
UPG.BB (Unifiedpost Group) -- Q1 revenue €45.8M vs year-ago €48.2M; reiterates FY 2024 objectives
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- April ETP market statistics: On & Off Exchange Value Traded +60% y/y in EMEA, +58% y/y in Americas, +16% y/y in APAC, and +52% y/y Globally.
UPG.BB (Unifiedpost Group) -- Q1 revenue €45.8M vs year-ago €48.2M; reiterates FY 2024 objectives
M&A
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- among suitors exploring bid for Avatel Telecom - Bloomberg
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- agrees in principle to acquire Avangrid )AGR) for a price of $35.75/sh
KWS.LN (Keywords Studios) -- EQT Group nearing acquisition of Keywords Studios for £25.50 per share - Bloomberg
KET.GR (Key Energy Services) -- purchases substanially all assets of Endeavor's well servicing division; terms undisclosed
BN.FP (Danone) -- completes sale of its EDP business in Russia
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- holders seek simpler offer from BHP - Sunday Telegraph
ACX.SM (Acerinox) -- Haynes International (HAIN) discloses formal investigation of merger with Acerinox's Stainless by UK regulators - 8-K
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- FDA discloses paragraph IV patent certifications for Ozempic
DBV.FP (DBV Technologies) -- announces plan to implement ADS ratio change
ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics) -- announces Nice & Green requests a conversion of more convertible bonds
Other
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- Mercedes-Benz U.S. International, Inc. team members vote against union representation
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- to commence second tranche of up-to-€2B buyback programme today
CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom) -- announces total return equity swap agreement with a global financial institution for a notional amount of €150M extended to 8-May-25
+APPNUT.LN (Applied Nutrition) -- likely to list in Q4 - Sunday Times
St James's Place, Ocado, Frasers face relegation from FTSE 100 in June review - Mail on Sunday
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ALLEI.SS (Alleima) -- short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
KLARA.B.SS (KlaraBo) -- to hold from reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
METSB.FH (Metsa board) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
SXS.LN (Spectris) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
Downgrades
SYNSAM.SS (Synsam) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SOON.SW (Sonova Holding) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
SCR.FP (SCOR SE) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
TAM.LN (Tatton Asset Management) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
MOL.HB (MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
Initiations
AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn) -- buy at ABG Sundal Collier
BCG.LN (Baltic Classifieds Group) -- buy at Deutsche Numis
TRN.LN (Trainline) -- buy at Deutsche Numis
SDIP.B.SS (Sdiptech) -- buy at SEB
FNOX.SS (Fortnox) -- buy at Pareto
LIME.SS (Lime Technologies) -- hold at Pareto
Data:
Nikkei +0.61% to 39022.90
Hang Seng +0.42% to 19634.84
Shanghai Composite +0.54% to 3171.21
S&P futures +8.0 vs prior close of 5327.3
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0883
$-¥ +0.10 or +0.06% to 155.65
€-¥ +0.33 or +0.20% to 169.39
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