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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.22%) to 8321.16, DAX +0.01% to 18693.37, CAC40 (0.09%) to 8094.97, STOXX 600 (0.19%) to 520.57

May 24 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mostly lower. Italy and The Netherlands +0.1% lead outperformers, whilst Denmark (0.8%), Austria and Spain (0.6%) lead underperformers.

    • Bond yield backup in focus after markets responded to stronger-than-expected US PMIs that played into good-news-is-bad-news dynamic. Also seemed to support higher-for-longer messaging pushed by Fed officials and reinforced by hawkish-leaning FOMC minutes. More support over the last few days for AI secular growth tailwind. However, thematic positioning stretched and market also coming off of a four-week rally that may have exhausted systematic fund buying. European PMIs also stronger but price pressure easing, which underpins expectations of a summer rate cut, though changes in US leaning against ECB and BoE rate cut expectations.

    • In other news, Politico reports French President Macron wants former Italian PM Draghi in a top job in Brussels but is figuring out the right role. Said France is ideologically aligned with Draghi, who does not want fiscal rules to thwart spending. UK press reports energy costs will be an electoral dividing line in early campaigning, with Sunak to announce series of policies on Friday.

    • On macro-calendar, UK consumer confidence at three-year high, but retail sales down sharply in April. German Q1 GDP in line with flash. French business climate index for May remains below its long-term average at 99 versus consensus 100 and prior 100.

    • On a light reporting front, Intertek Group (ITRK.LN) issued its 4M trading update, with Acciona (ANA.SM), Grenergy Renovables (GRE.SM), BW Energy (BWE.NO), BW Offshore (BWO.NO) and Aegean Airlines (AEGN.GA) also updating investors.

    • In M&A news, local German press wrote that Siemens (SIE.GR) has plenty of scope for M&A but rules out expensive acquisitions; in another deal, John Wood Group (WG.LN) rejected an increased offer from Sidara at 220p/share and - still int he UK - Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.LN) largest shareholder Peter Hargreaves is open to taking the company private; in the Nordics, EQT AB (EQT.SS) is exploring a minority stake sale in Reworld that could value the company at more than $8B; in Greece, Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings (EUROB.GA) denied media reports that it's interested in acquiring Bulgarian bank First Investment Bank.

    • Looking ahead to Monday's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 27-May to 31-May attached) Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR.SM), Retail Estates (RET.BB), SP Group (SPG.DC), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP), Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA) and Quadient (QDT.FP) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany May Ifo business expectations, Norway Apr unemployment rate. UK markets will be closed for bank holiday (also US markets for Memorial Day).

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Insurance +0.58%, Autos & Parts +0.51%, Media +0.43%, Construct & Mtls +0.31%, Retail +0.25%, Financial Svcs +0.17%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.11%, Banks (0.04%), Travel & Leisure (0.04%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.07%), Energy(0.08%), Consumer Products and Services (0.16%),

      • Underperformers:

        • Utilities (1.27%), Health Care (0.77%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.51%), Real Estate (0.51%), Technology (0.42%), Telecom (0.26%), Basic Resources (0.24%),

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Geopolitics

        • G7 finance ministers mull plan to issue debt backed by frozen assets - FT

        • International Court of Justice orders Israel to halt Rafah offensive - The Times, BBC

        • Ukraine's Peace Project Is Dented by Rival Plan, Hollywood Cash - Bloomberg

        • Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines - Reuters

        • U.S., European powers divided over confronting Iran at IAEA, diplomats say - Reuters

      • EU

        • ECB's Nagel Says Likelihood of June Cut Is Winning Traction - Bloomberg

        • EU Would Be 'Very Happy' to Bring UK Closer, Gentiloni Says - Bloomberg

      • UK

        • General election latest news: Exodus of Tory MPs under Sunak equals 1997 record - The Telegraph

        • Pound surges as summer rate cut hopes vanish - The Telegraph

        • How Labour and the Conservatives plan to fix the economy - The Times

        • Stock Traders Prepare Game Plan for Biggest Shakeup Since Brexit - Bloomberg

        • Ex-Labour Leader Corbyn to Stand as Independent in UK Election - Bloomberg, Politico

        • Energy bills to fall again from July under new cap - BBC

      • France

        • The reform of unemployment insurance, a drain that does not say its name on Unedic - La Tribune

      • Germany

        • European Parliament's far-right group expels Germany's AfD after SS remark - Reuters

        • Bundeswehr intelligence uncovers connections to right-wing extremists - Handelsblatt

      • Italy

        • Italy's Meloni Grants Home Renovation Amnesty in EU Vote Run-up - Bloomberg

      • Greece

        • Fighting cost-of-living crisis is government's top priority, PM says - ekathimerini

      • Hungary

        • Hungary seeks to 'redefine' its Nato membership over Ukraine - FT

    • Company news:

      • Trading Higher:

        • +7.3% CDA.FP (Compagnie des Alpes €15.82, +1.08) -- H1 earnings

        • +6.5% MIDW.LN (Midwich Group £3.94, +0.24) -- HSBC downgrade

        • +6.1% AVAP.LN (Avation £1.40, +0.08) -- FY trading update

        • +5.4% RNO.FP (Renault €50.40, +2.57) -- UBS upgrade

        • +5.3% TRB.LN (Tribal Group £0.60, +0.03) -- NTU Settlement agreement

        • +5.0% ARBN.SW (Arbonia CHF13.34, +0.64) -- Stifel upgrade

        • +4.7% WG.LN (John Wood Group £1.88, +0.08) -- rejects increased offer from Sidara at 220p/share

        • +4.4% VVV3.GR (Ökoworld €33.10, +1.40) -- FY earnings

        • +2.6% SOI.FP (SOITEC €113.50, +2.90) -- FY earnings

        • +2.6% TPK.LN (Travis Perkins £8.54, +0.22) -- BofA upgrade

        • +1.9% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK205.40, +3.90) -- Barclays upgrade

        • +1.8% BWO.NO (BW Offshore NOK29.05, +0.50) -- Q1 earnings

        • +1.6% BWE.NO (BW Energy NOK31.90, +0.50) -- Q1 earnings

      • Trading Lower:

        • -6.8% ANA.SM (Acciona €116.50, -8.50) -- Q1 Trading Statement

        • -6.5% SCYR.SM (Sacyr Vallehermoso €3.41, -0.24) -- places ~66.7M shares at €3.33/each to raise €222M

        • -5.1% TRE.SM (Tecnicas Reunidas €12.20, -0.66) -- CMD

        • -4.9% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK1,926.50, -98.50) -- to showcase data in various patient populations to be presented at the ASCO Annual Meeting

        • -4.8% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £3.84, -0.20) -- 7.5M-share placement (all for holder Andy Bell) priced at 375p

        • -4.7% NYR.BB (Nyrstar €0.07, -0.00) -- provides update with regards to the proceedings before the Supreme Court

        • -3.0% FRP.LN (FRP Advisory Group £1.32, -0.04) -- 0.4M shares have been placed under placing at placing price of 128p/sh

        • -3.0% FORTUM.FH (Fortum €13.97, -0.43) -- Nordea downgrade

        • -2.8% NG.LN (National Grid £8.97, -0.26) -- UK's Ofgem announces a (7%) q/q decrease in the energy price cap for Q3 of 2024

        • -2.2% SEB.A.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken SEK147.15, -3.35) -- Barclays downgrade

        • -2.0% HL.LN (Hargreaves Lansdown £10.98, -0.23) -- Hargreaves Lansdown's largest shareholder Peter Hargreaves open to taking the company private - Reuters

        • -1.6% SWED.A.SS (Swedbank SEK215.10, -3.40) -- Barclays downgrade

    • EU companies reporting Monday:

      • Corporate:

        • Earnings: Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW), IMMOFINANZ (IIA.AV), Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente (SLR.SM), Retail Estates (RET.BB), SP Group (SPG.DC), Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP), Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA)

        • Trading Update: Quadient (QDT.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK

        • May consumer confidence (17) vs consensus (18) and prior (19) - GfK

        • Apr Retail Sales (2.7%) y/y vs consensus (0.2%) and prior revised +0.4% from +0.8%

      • Finland Apr PPI (2.1%) y/y vs prior (4.6%)

      • Germany Q1 GDP (0.2%) y/y vs preliminary (0.2%)

      • Sweden Apr PPI +0.9% y/y vs consensus +2.1% and prior (0.6%)

      • France May Business Survey 99 vs consensus 100 and prior 100

      • Spain Apr PPI (6.6%) y/y vs consensus (7.0%) and prior (8.2%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jul 24): +$0.32 or +0.42% to $77.19

      • €-$ +0.0039 or +0.36% to 1.0856

      • £-$ +0.0048 or +0.38% to 1.2747

      • €-£ (0.0001) to 0.8516

      • S&P 500 +0.78%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.60%

        • DAX: +11.60%

        • CAC: +7.34%

        • MIB: +13.68%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.70%

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