Jun 06 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher. Denmark +3.0%, Spain and Switzerland +0.8% lead outperformers, whilst Portugal (0.2%) and Finland (0.1%) lead underperformers.
Focus on ECB policy decision. Cut key rates by 25 bps as expected, but statement said not pre-commiting to particular rate path. Attention on comments related to policy outlook. Expectation is ECB will maintain data-dependent approach and avoid signaling further rate cut. Meanwhile, Fed rate cut expectations supporting risk assets after ADP private payrolls miss. Has helped to dial up rate cut pricing. Treasury 10Y yield down more than 30 bp from late May peak, falling to lowest since early April. However, deep curve inversion has also played into recession concerns. AI enthusiasm and intertwined semi and big tech strength the big bullish talking point with NVDA third stock ever to reach $3T market cap.
UK election still being dominated by fiscal policy. Chancellor Hunt has challenged Labour to rule out property tax rises, as polls show Reform UK just two points behind Conservatives. A poll published on Wednesday showed Nigel Farage's entrance into the UK election will have an impact on Conservative share of the vote.
On macro data front, BoE monthly survey showed CFOs see UK inflation holding above target in the medium term. Germany factory orders registers fourth consecutive decline. Eurozone construction PMI remains in contraction. Big jump in UK construction activity. Eurozone retail sales missed expectations.
In corporate news, Norcod (NCOD.NO) and Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW) reported Q1 earnings this morning. In Greece, Piraeus Financial (TPEIR.GA) provided its updated 2024 guidance. In France, Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP) issued its FY earnings and reiterated both its financial and extra-financial targets for 2029-2030.
In M&A, Atos (ATO.FP) extended the deadline for selection of preferred financial restructuring proposal to the beginning of the week of 10-Jun-24.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 3-Jun to 7-Jun attached) no notable earnings expected, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Apr industrial production, trade balance, France Apr trade balance, Norway Apr manufacturing production, UK May house price index - Halifax, Eurozone Q1 final GDP, Ireland Q1 final GDP, Greece Q1 GDP, Denmark Apr manufacturing production.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Banks +1.45%, Health Care +1.37%, Technology +1.16%, Basic Resources +1.10%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.94%, Insurance +0.85%, Consumer Products and Services +0.70%,
Underperformers:
Utilities (0.90%), Real Estate (0.56%), Telecom (0.34%), Chemicals (0.19%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.14%), Travel & Leisure +0.08%, Media +0.11%, Construct & Mtls +0.17%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.20%, Financial Svcs +0.20%, Energy+0.29%, Autos & Parts +0.30%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Biden says fight for Ukraine echoes struggle for freedom on D-Day - BBC, The Telegraph
Putin threatens to arm West's enemies with long-range missiles - Politico
Central Banks
EU
Euro Jumps as Traders Pare Wagers on Further ECB Rate Cuts - Bloomberg
UK
Tax Hikes Needed Whoever Wins UK Election, Analysis Shows - Bloomberg
Relentless Selling Continues Even as UK Stocks Surge - Bloomberg
Rachel Reeves 'under pressure from Labour frontbenchers' to increase capital gains tax - The Telegraph
Reform pledges to abolish inheritance tax for estates worth under £2m - The Telegraph
Construction expands at fastest pace in two years - The Times, Reuters
Germany
Germany to deport Afghans and Syrians convicted of serious crimes - FT
The German economy is shrinking - Handelsblatt
Lindner's debt brake ads cause displeasure in the SPD - Handelsblatt
Italy
Italy's Economy Seen Growing 1% This Year, Istat Says - Bloomberg
Greece
ECB to approve Greek banks' dividend demand - ekathimerini
Big debtors' list out next month - ekathimerini
Netherlands
Dutch voters kick off EU election, nationalist parties seen gaining - Reuters
Ireland
Sinn Fein ambitions face reality check at Irish local and EU elections - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+33.4% BWNG.LN (N Brown Group £0.18, +0.05) -- FY earnings
+10.4% VRS.LN (Versarien £0.00, -0.00) -- H1 earnings
+8.4% WG.LN (John Wood Group £2.02, +0.16) -- board engages with Sidara
+7.3% ILM1.GR (Medios €15.90, +1.08) -- initiated buy at Hauck & Aufhäuser
+7.0% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €1.17, +0.08) -- extends deadline for selection of preferred financial restructuring proposal
+6.1% NEM.GR (Nemetschek €96.55, +5.60) -- to acquire GoCanvas Holdings
+5.6% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.10, +0.01) -- contract
+5.5% NTI.NO (Norsk Titanium NOK2.86, +0.15) -- confirms FY guidance; preliminary results of the subsequent offering
+5.0% BITTI.FH (Bittium €7.10, +0.34) -- accepted as tactical communications solutions for the armament of the Croatian Armed Forces
+3.9% EAPI.FP (Euroapi €3.92, +0.15) -- eligible to public funding under IPCEI Med4Cure
+3.6% HUSCO.DC (HusCompagniet DKK62.60, +2.20) -- contract
+3.3% ALTHX.FP (Theranexus €1.07, +0.04) -- confirm positive 18-month results for Batten-1 in Phase I/II trial based on neurofilaments
+2.8% FBK.IM (FinecoBank €14.78, +0.40) -- May sales
+1.9% G24.GR (Scout24 €71.85, +1.35) -- initiated outperform at Santander
+1.9% GET.FP (Getlink €16.60, +0.31) -- Barclays upgrade
+1.8% TE.FP (Technip Energies €22.00, +0.38) -- contract
+1.6% TPEIR.GA (Piraeus Financial Holdings €3.79, +0.06) -- updated 2024 guidance
+0.3% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £3.54, +0.01) -- confirmed removed from FTSE 100 index
Trading Lower:
-19.9% SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group £0.60, -0.15) -- trading update
-7.8% M12.GR (M1 Kliniken €20.80, -1.70) -- Q1 earnings
-7.8% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK13.49, -1.14) -- May traffic
-6.7% LDA.SM (Linea Directa Aseguradora €1.14, -0.08) -- JB Capital Markets downgrade
-2.5% RE.LN (R.E.A. Holdings £0.88, -0.02) -- crops update
-2.0% CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies NOK15.00, -0.30) -- places 2.25M shares at NOK 13.30/sh
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
no notable earnings expected
Data:
Economics:
May
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (sa) 2.4% vs consensus 2.3% and prior 2.3%
Construction PMI
Germany 38.5 vs consensus 39.0 and prior 37.5
UK 54.7 vs consensus 52.5 and prior 53.0
Apr
Eurozone Retail Sales 0.0% y/y vs consensus +0.1% and prior +0.7%
Germany Factory Orders (0.2%) m/m vs consensus +0.6% and prior revised (0.8%) from (0.4%)
Spain Industrial Production +0.8% y/y vs consensus +0.8% and prior revised (1.3%) from (1.2%)
Italy Retail Sales (1.9%) y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior revised +1.9% from +2.2%
Ireland Q1 GDP (6.5%) y/y vs preliminary (0.8%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jul 24): +$1.23 or +1.66% to $75.30
€-$ +0.0014 or +0.13% to 1.0884
£-$ (0.0005) or (0.04%) to 1.2782
€-£ +0.0015 to 0.8516
S&P 500 (0.04%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.14%
DAX: +11.35%
CAC: +6.59%
MIB: +14.78%
Stoxx 600: +9.54%
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