Jun 11 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to higher, whilst Asia equities leaning softer Tuesday. Japan and South Korea tracking moderate gains, off best levels. Other benchmarks softer, led by Hong Kong, Australia and Shanghai. US futures settled into mild losses following broad gains overnight.
No major catalysts overnight as markets look ahead to Wednesday's US CPI and FOMC meeting. Recall that markets pared Fed rate cut projections again on the back of stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls, and now imply 50% probability of a September move. Consensus forecasts indicated some division over the dot plot would indicate one or two cuts on the horizon. Tech in focus with Apple (AAPL) unveiling its AI strategy at the WWDC, though no major surprises. European equities logged moderate declines and euro lagged among major currencies amid European Parliament election results though with no meaningful spillover into US markets.
In the UK, the Conservative Party will publish its election manifesto later today. The BBC reported that the Tories would pledge a further 2p National Insurance cut, and the Telegraph reported that Rishi Sunak would offer tax breaks to landlords in the manifesto. The Labour manifesto is expected to be out on Thursday.
On today's agenda, OPEC monthly report and EIA short-term energy outlook. Amongst events are Handelsblatt CFO-Summit (through Wed), Company CFO's speaking include from Covestro (COV.GR), Evonik Industries (EVK.GR), Rheinmetall (RHM.GR), DHL Group (DHL.GR), RWE (RWE.GR), Siemens Healthineers (SHL.GR), SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR). Wirtschaftstag 2024, Economy Council of the CDU (through Wed) and European Sustainable Energy Week 2024 (through Thu). International Conf. on the Reconstruction of Ukraine, speakers include Chancellor Scholz, EU's von der Leyen, Sinkevi�?ius, also EU's Dombrovskis, Šef�?ovi�? participate. Press conf. is planned for 12noon CET. EU's Šef�?ovi�? participates in the Hydrogen Council event on 'Growing the hydrogen ecosystem for a secure and sustainable energy future'. EU's Simson attends the European Sustainable Energy Week 2024 (EUSEW). Norway's defence minister Gram participates in parliament's consideration of the long-term plan for the defense sector at 10:00CET. Pricing expected to be announced for Raspberry PI (RPI.LN) IPO
In central banks, Bank of Finland's Rehn press conf at 9:00CET on the outlook for the Finnish economy Bank of France's Villeroy speech at 9:10CET at Paris Finance Forum. The European Single Supervisory Mechanism at 10: Lessons learnt and challenges ahead" hosted by ECB (through Wed), ECB's Buch speech at 9:30CET, Elderson at 18:45. Bank of Austria's Holzmann moderates panel at 10:45CET, moderates discussion with Bank of France's Villeroy 13:00, at OeNB, SUERF Annual Economic Conf. ECB's Lane fireside chat at 12noon BST at the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland National Conf, other speakers include finance minister McGrath at 9:05. Bank of Spain releases quarterly report on the Spanish economy and macroeconomic projections.
Macro data out today include UK May claimant count change and Netherlands May CPI +2.7% y/y vs preliminary +2.7%.
In Corporate news, Euronext (ENX.FP) reported May trading activity, and GENFIT (GNFT.FP) issued comments on FDA approval of Ipsen's Iqirvo, indicating that it is eligible to receive a €48.7M milestone payment from Ipsen upon the first commercial sale of Iqirvo in the U.S., as well as tiered double-digit royalties of up to 20%. In M&A, Atos (ATO.FP) confirmed it would work with the Onepoint consortium to reach a definitive financial restructuring agreement to be subsequently implemented by a dedicated accelerated procedure by July 2024.
In other corporate developments, Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.SM) holder CriteriaCaixa places 18.6M shares at €32.91/share through JPMorgan.
Politics/Macro/World News
Tories to pledge further 2p National Insurance cut in manifesto - BBC
Rishi Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords in Tory manifesto - The Telegraph
Rightwing Tories plan 'rebel manifesto' if Sunak's policy launch falls flat - The Guardian
Labour sparks concern over potential capital gains tax increase - FT
Majority of German companies in favour of punitive tariffs against China - Handelsblatt
Infighting over budget imperils Germany's defence upgrade - Reuters
UN Security Council backs Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- Follow-up: GENFIT comments on FDA approval of Ipsen's Iqirvo
ENX.FP (Euronext) -- May trading activity
GPI.IM (GPI SpA) -- confirms targets in Strategic Business Plan 2022-24 - June company presentation
SCANFL.FH (Scanfil) -- lowers FY guidance
HDD.GR (Heidelberger Druckmaschinen) -- reports FY EPS €0.13 vs FactSet €0.15 [3 est, €0.13-0.18]; expects sales and EBITDA margin for financial year 2024/2025 to match previous year's level
M&A
8058.JP (Mitsubishi) -- Rio Tinto to acquire Mitsubishi's 11.65% stake in Boyne Smelters, terms undisclosed
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- reportedly sees difficulties with sale of custody business due to valuation disagreements -- Reuters
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- picks OnePoint's restructuring offer - Le Figaro
NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group) -- Criteria Caixa and TAQA end discussions related to a possible cooperation agreement related to Naturgy (post EU close 10-Jun)
MITRA.BB (Mithra Pharmaceuticals) -- Mithra files for bankruptcy and continues negotiations with Gedeon Richter for the sale of Neuralis and Estetra
MF.FP (Wendel) -- acquires minority stake in YesWeHack through equity investment of €14.5M
Healthcare
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- GSK notes plaintiff's voluntary dismissal of next Zantac case in Illinois
MOR.GR (Morphosys) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by NOVARTIS AG)
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- receives US FDA accelerated approval as first-in-class PPAR treatment for primary biliary cholangitis
INDV.LN (Indivior) -- announces dosing of first subject with INDV-2000 in a Phase 2 study assessing the safety and efficacy of INDV-2000 in individuals with opioid use disorder
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- Molecular Partners, Orano Med announce positive preclinical data of their DLL3-targeting Radio-DARPin Therapy (RDT) candidate MP0712 at SNMMI 2024
MED.SW (Medartis Holding) -- CEO Christoph Brönnimann to resign to pursue other opportunities
CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom) -- holder CriteriaCaixa places 18.6M shares at €32.91/share through JPMorgan
Other
UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- featured in AAPL WWDC Keynote Address
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- BMW under expanded review from Senate for use of banned electrical components - Reuters
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- CaixaBank exits its entire stake of 2.546% in Telefonica via settlement by delivery of shares from swap contracts and market sale
CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom) -- holder CriteriaCaixa placing up to 18.6M shares via accelerated book-building through JPMorgan
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- Qatar Holding LLC steps down from VINCI's board; resignation will come into effect on 10-Jun-24
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- HMSHost awarded new 15-year contract at Sacramento International Airport
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- Partners Group closes its fifth direct private equity program with total commitments above its target of $15B
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- Follow-up: Atos confirms it will work with the Onepoint consortium to reach definitive financial restructuring agreement to be subsequently implemented by a dedicated accelerated procedure by July 2024
SAS.SS (SAS) -- AB announces plan of reorganization in ongoing proceeding
Calix and Heidelberg Materials form JV for Leilac-2 demonstration plant in Germany, commissioning expected in mid-2026
GSK notes plaintiff's voluntary dismissal of next Zantac case in Illinois
Labor contract negotiations breakdown ahead of new 'peak season' import volumes
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- to outperform at Bernstein
UCB.BB (UCB) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
Downgrades
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
BAMI.IM (Banco BPM) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
Initiations
AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn) -- buy at UBS
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- hold at Deutsche Bank
ACLN.SW (Accelleron Industries) -- hold at Berenberg
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Others
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- resumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; prior rating was overweight
Data
Nikkei +0.30% to 39155.61
Hang Seng (1.45%) to 18101.02
Shanghai Composite (0.93%) to 3022.97
S&P futures (4.0) vs prior close of 5371.3
€-$ (0.0000) or (0.00%) to 1.0765
$-¥ +0.20 or +0.13% to 157.24
€-¥ +0.15 or +0.09% to 169.27
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