Jul 05 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a mixed open. Follows positive close on Thursday. Asian markets mixed on Friday. Kospi outperforming following Samsung's earnings beat. Mainland China equites turning lower and Hang Seng little changed. Shares in Japan and Australia flat. S&P 500 futures unchanged with US closed Thursday for Independence Day.
Focus on UK election. Pound little changed in reaction. Sir Keir Starmer will become the United Kingdom's next prime minister after his Labour party comfortably won a parliamentary majority in Thursday's general election, ending 14 years of Conservative party rule. Rachel Reeves to become UK's first female Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister), Angela Rayner to be Deputy PM, David Lammy foreign secretary. Exit polls point to Labour to win a landslide with 410 seats, and the Conservatives on 144. Outcome was largely priced in by markets. New Parliament has been called to meet on Tuesday 9 July 2024 when the business will be the election of the Speaker. The State Opening of Parliament and the King's Speech will follow on Wednesday 17 July 2024 (new government outline their legislative programme).
Attention is also on second round of French election on Sunday and whether Marine Le Pen's National Rally can secure absolute parliamentary majority. Poll suggests anti-right alliance may block path to power. In the US, Biden's candidacy remains uncertain with president digging in against calls for him to exit. However, betting markets continue to favor VP Harris replacing him.
In central banks International Conf. on Payments and Securities Settlement, speakers include Bundesbank's Nagel at 9:00CET. Bank of Spain's Delgado speech at 9:15CET at Conf. on the Spanish Economy. ECB's Elderson speech/Q+A at 14:15CET at Data Innovation for Future of Regulation (DIFoR) Conf whilst ECB's Lagarde in conversation at 19:15CET at Les Rencontres Economiques d'Aix-en-Provence (through Sat), also participating is EU's Schmit. Latvia Central Bank's Kaz�?ks and Purgaile participate in LAMPA festival. Russia Jun new car registrations are due to be released.
Economic data due include, UK Jun house price index - Halifax, Spain May industrial production, Switzerland Jun consumer confidence - SECO, Eurozone May retail sales
In Corporate news, Aixtron (AIXA.GR) reported preliminary Q2 earnings and revised its FY24 guidance downwards. In Nordics, Salmar (SALM.NO), Lerøy Seafood Group (LSG.NO) and Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO) all issued Q2 harvest volumes. In M&A, Glencore (GLEN.LN) received all necessary regulatory approvals to acquire Teck Resources's remaining 77% interest in the steelmaking coal business, Elk Valley Resources. The transaction is now expected to close 11-Jul.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK
Labour Passes 400 Seats in UK Election, Former PM Truss Loses Seat - Bloomberg
'We did it,' says Starmer as Labour wins landslide in general election - BBC, The Guardian, The Telegraph
Farage elected MP for first time as Reform wins four seats - BBC , Sky news
National Rally to fall short of absolute majority in French parliamentary elections, poll shows - Reuters
France
Germany
Coalition agrees on budget and growth package - Handelsblatt
Central banks
Top company news
Earnings/updates
AIXA.GR (Aixtron) -- reports Q2 preliminary revenue of ~€132M vs guidance of €120-140M; revises FY24 guidance downwards
LMN.SW (lastminute.com) -- signs commercial agreement with Ryanair; lastminute.com has seen a weaker-than-expected H1, but outlook for the rest of the year is positive
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- presents preview to its Q1 2024/25 orders and sales results
SALM.NO (Salmar) -- reports preliminary Q2 consolidated harvest volumes (1,000 tgw) 44.8
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- Q2 trading update: total harvest volume of salmon and trout 36.7K GWT; ex-volumes from Scottish Seafarms
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- trading update; Q2 harvest volume ~15,300t GWT
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- reports H1 EPRA NRV per share 146, (9%) vs year-ago 161
CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson) -- reports Jun sales ( ex acquired Spares Group) +5% to SEK 789M, organic sales +6% y/y
KID.NO (Kid ASA) -- reports preliminary Q2 revenue NOK797.8M vs FactSet NOK803.9M
M&A
EMMN.SW (Emmi) -- has entered into a put option agreement for the contemplated acquisition of Mademoiselle Desserts Group for ~€900M (enterprise value)
GS (Goldman Sachs) -- PE offers Goldman Sachs €3.2-3.3B ($3.46-3.57B) for B&B Hotels - London Times
TECK.B.CN (Teck Resources) -- Canada set to imminently approve Glencore's acquisition of Teck's metallurgical coal business with several stringent conditions - Globe and Mail
TECK.B.CN (Teck Resources) -- confirms its sale of remaining 77% of EVR to Glencore has received all necessary regulatory approvals
REP.SM (Repsol) -- Altarea acquires Prejeance Industrial in France from Repsol for ~ €140M
IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas) -- will receive dividend of €59.6M for the 9.5% stake it holds in the capital of ITP Aero
VAR1.GR (VARTA) -- currently in negotiations with Porsche regarding possible investment by V4Drive business
VID.SM (Vidrala) -- announces closing of the sale of Italia
CARA.NO (Carasent) -- EG decides not to proceed with making takeover offer for Carasent
HBC, parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, to acquire Neiman Marcus Group for $2.65B
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA approves Genentech's Vabysmo PFS for AMD, DME, RVO
OXUR.BB (Oxurion) -- convenes a new EGM on 24-Jul-24 regarding proposal to consolidate the company's outstanding shares at a ratio of 1 for 10,000
Other
BATS.LN (British American Tobacco) -- subsidiary Imperial Tobacco Canada submits feedback to Health Canada on nicotine replacement therapy products
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- consortium wins contract to build four electrical substations off the coast of Belgium for the world's first artificial energy island
TRN.IM (TERNA Rete Elettrica Nazionale) -- TERNA signs an ESG-linked credit facility for €200M (post EU close 4-Jul)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DNB.NO (DNB Bank) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities
SPX.LN (Spirax Group) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- to sell from hold at Berenberg
YAR.NO (Yara International) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SCT.LN (Softcat) -- to underperform from buy at Jefferies
Initiations
VZN.SW (VZ Holding) -- Add at Baader Helvea
CAPSL.NO (Capsol Technologies) -- buy at Pareto
Others
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- short-term recommendation transferred hold at Handelsbanken; prior rating was buy
Data
Nikkei (0.24%) to 40814.51
Hang Seng (0.89%) to 17867.93
Shanghai Composite (0.72%) to 2936.18
S&P futures +5.3 vs prior close of 5590.3
€-$ +0.0011 or +0.10% to 1.0824
$-¥ (0.59) or (0.37%) to 160.66
€-¥ (0.50) or (0.29%) to 173.86
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