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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.13%) to 8193.49, DAX (0.02%) to 18472.05, CAC40 (0.63%) to 7627.45, STOXX 600 (0.03%) to 516.43

Jul 08 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended mixed with pan-European indices reversing earlier gains. Norway and France both down ~(0.6%), Finland (0.5%) led underperformers whilst Italy +0.9%, Greece +0.7% and Denmark +0.6% led outperformers.

    • In political developments, attention on French election result. Surprise win for left-wing alliance though no single group secured a working majority. Left-wing NPF on 182 seats, Macron's centrists secured 168 and RN and its allies 143. Polls had Le Pen's RN winning largest number of seats prior to vote. Negotiations to form a coalition government expected to be difficult. Gridlock scenario seen as more market friendly, though might also lead to further fiscal slippage as parties make difficult tradeoffs to form a government.

    • Focus also on new UK government. Chancellor Reeves set out planning reforms to support aim of investing for growth. Other measures also tipped in the coming days to support investment and encourage institutional investors to do the heavy lifting to support growth. BCC survey showed only quarter of firms have boosted their investment levels last quarter. In post-Brexit developments, The Telegraph reported UK PM Starmer has said work has already begun to improve the UK's Brexit deal with the EU as Labour pursues closer ties with the bloc. He highlighted his confidence in reach a better agreement than the one secured by former Conservative PM Johnson.

    • Central bank narrative also in the headlines with Bloomberg citing ECB Governing Council member Muller who said officials must be cautious on further monetary loosening as wage gains and service-price growth remain elevated.

    • From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, update from REC/KPMG showed wage growth for permanent staff at steepest level since October, which might undermine BoE rate cut expectations for August. German May Trade balance at €24.9B vs consensus €19.9B and prior revised €22.2B from €22.1B. May German exports fell more than expected due to weak demand from China, US and European countries. Eurozone Sentix Economic Index weakened after an eight-month run of improvements. July reading marked a big setback in sentiment at -7.3 vs consensus -0.6 and prior 0.3. Current situation index fell to -15.8 from prior -9.0 and the expectations index drop to 1.5 vs prior 10.0.

    • In corporate news, Wihlborgs Fastigheter (WIHL.SS) released Q2 earnings including Q2 EPRA NRVPS SEK88.74 vs year-ago SEK90.41. In the UK, Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN) trade notably higher following Q2 production report: total commercial production 1.67M tonnes, (19%) q/q. Plus500 (PLUS.LN) was down post H1 trading update: revenue $398.2M vs prior guidance $368.5M; guides FY revenue and EBITDA in-line with current market expectations. UNITE Group (UTG.LN) updated on current trading. Out of France, Virbac (VIRP.FP) raised FY ratio of adjusted EBIT to revenue to around 16% from 15% and announces the resignation of CEO Sébastien Huron. Galp Energia SGPS (GALP.PL) shares were lower post trading update with prelim Q2 working interest production (kboepd) 106 vs FactSet 115.0.

    • On M&A front, Grifols (GRF.SM) confirmed Grifols family members and Brookfield Capital agree to evaluate a possible joint takeover bid for the company. Edison Bidco AS to acquire Volue ASA at NOK 42.00 per share. Carlsberg and Britvic reach agreement of a recommended cash offer of 1,315 pence for each Britvic Share for an enterprise value of ~£4.1B. Metro Bank Holdings (MTRO.LN) confirmed discussions regarding potential disposal of residential mortgage loans originated by Metro Bank

    • Elsewhere, Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) announced group may face significant fine due to antitrust violations and intends to increase corresponding provision.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Insurance +1.28%, Travel & Leisure +0.81%, Construct & Mtls +0.64%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.51%, Health Care +0.40%, Retail +0.37%, Telecom +0.34%, Banks +0.12%, Media +0.11%, Chemicals +0.10%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.09%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.04%

      • Underperformers

        • Consumer Products and Services (1.22%), Energy(1.01%), Real Estate (0.91%), Basic Resources (0.70%), Utilities (0.65%), Financial Svcs (0.38%), Technology (0.03%)

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • EU

        • EU envoy says Beijing making it "very difficult" for Brussels to deepen ties - SCMP

        • Europe's innovation performance steadily improving but at different speeds between Member States - release

      • UK

        • UK Chancellor Reeves to unveil growth plan in first major speech - Bloomberg

        • Foreign Secretary Lammy says time to reset relationship with Europe - Gov.UK

        • City of London calls for bold action from new government - FT

        • Debt measure change 'could boost public finances by £20B' - London Times

        • Pay rises put pressure on plans for rate cuts - London Times

        • BCC survey shows business confidence up, though investment weak - BCC

        • BOE Haskel speech - gov.uk release

      • France

        • Left-wing alliance comes out on top in parliamentary election - Le Monde

        • PM Attal offers to resign after Macron's coalition loses majority - Le Monde

        • On the left, Socialists win almost as many seats as Mélenchon's LFI - Le Monde

        • France shifts to the left, but risk of policy paralysis looms - Reuters, Bloomberg

        • Left success sows fiscal doubt, putting pressure on OATs - Bloomberg

        • Macron rejects his prime minister's resignation - Telegraph

      • Germany

        • How the German coalition wants to bolster economic growth - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +19.1% ITM.LN (ITM Power £0.60, +0.10) -- 500MW capacity reservation contract

        • +15.4% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.60, +0.08) -- Q2 production

        • +12.7% MARS.LN (Marston's £0.35, +0.04) -- disposes of 40% stake in CMBC brewing JV for £206M

        • +8.6% EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices NOK2.89, +0.23) -- agreement for a fully pre-funded Ocean Bottom Node (OBN) seismic survey in the Barents Sea with Velocitas Geo Solutions

        • +8.2% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €21.28, +1.62) -- Jefferies upgrade

        • +6.6% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £3.50, +0.22) -- expansion of partnership with AEON Co. in Japan

        • +5.6% AFK.NO (Arendals Fossekompani NOK163.40, +8.60) -- tender offer by Edison Bidco to acquire all of the outstanding shares in AFK's Volue ASA at a price of NOK 42.00 per share

        • +4.9% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £1.60, +0.08) -- H1 trading update

        • +4.7% BVIC.LN (Britvic £12.67, +0.57) -- recommended cash offer of 1,315p per Britvic share by Carlsberg for an EV of ~£4.1B; Q3 trading statement

        • +4.4% PHM.SM (Pharma Mar €34.84, +1.46) -- CaixaBank upgrade

        • +4.0% AB.FP (AB Science €1.15, +0.04) -- results of phase 2 study evaluating MASITINIB in COVID-19:

        • +3.3% CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg DKK865.40, +28.00) -- terminates share buy-back program

        • +2.6% BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail £4.55, +0.12) -- initiated buy at Canaccord Genuity

        • +2.5% BHG.SS (Lightshop SEK16.72, +0.41) -- SEB upgrade

        • +2.4% SALM.NO (Salmar NOK571.50, +13.50) -- Sparebank 1 Markets upgrade

        • +1.9% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £1.76, +0.03) -- Ireland's Labour Court recommends (non-binding) a 17.75% pay increase for Aer Lingus pilots covering a four year period from 1-Jan-23 - RTE

        • +1.8% FBK.IM (FinecoBank €15.09, +0.27) -- Jefferies upgrade

        • +1.7% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.37, +0.01) -- confirms discussions regarding potential disposal of residential mortgage loans originated by Metro Bank

        • +1.6% WALL.B.SS (Wallenstam SEK52.75, +0.85) -- Q2 earnings; board resolves to use the share buyback authorization from AGM

        • +1.3% TRI.FP (Trigano €114.90, +1.50) -- CIC Market Solutions upgrade

        • +1.2% NTEK.B.SS (Novotek SEK66.80, +0.80) -- acquires 70% of shares in Taschek & Gruber Automatic Data Processing GmbH

        • +1.2% BO.DC (Bang & Olufsen DKK9.32, +0.11) -- Carnegie Securities upgrade

      • Notable Decliners

        • -39.7% SPEX.SW (Spexis CHF0.07, -0.04) -- termination of ColiFin license to EnBiotix, Inc.

        • -7.1% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €19.52, -1.49) -- increase provison due to possible significant fine relating antitrust violations

        • -6.4% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK524.00, -36.00) -- Tyra redevelopment project update

        • -5.7% SDF.GR (K+S €11.81, -0.71) -- BofA downgrade

        • -3.5% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK127.20, -4.60) -- preliminary Q2 revenue

        • -3.0% PLUS.LN (Plus500 £22.44, -0.70) -- H1 trading update

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Nordics: Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Investment AB Oresund (ORES.SS), XANO Industri (XANO.B.SS)

        • UK: Loungers (LGRS.LN), Begbies Traynor (BEG.LN), Celebrus Technologies (CLBS.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Denmark May Manufacturing Production (6.0%) m/m vs consensus (4.6%) and prior revised +10.8% from +11.3%

      • Germany May Trade Balance €24.9B vs consensus €19.9B and prior revised €22.2B from €22.1B

      • Sweden May Industrial Production (2.9%) y/y vs consensus (3.6%) and prior (4.4%)

      • Eurozone Jul Economic Index (7.3) vs consensus (0.6) and prior +0.3

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Aug 24): ($0.42) or (0.51%) to $82.74

      • €-$ +0.0018 or +0.17% to 1.0833

      • £-$ +0.0026 or +0.20% to 1.2827

      • €-£ (0.0001) to 0.8446

      • S&P 500 +0.09%

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +6.00%

        • DAX: +10.37%

        • CAC: +1.29%

        • MIB: +12.18% Stoxx 600: +7.88%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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