Jul 14 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asian markets set for mixed start to Monday trade. Hang Seng futures pointing to declines while ASX futures higher. Nikkei futures flat (Japan closed for Marine Day). S&P 500 futures little changed, dollar strengthening across-the-board and Bitcoin rallying amid rise in Trump's election odds following assassination attempt. Gold and crude little changed while copper pulling back from Friday's highs.
Weekend press dominated by assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Trump survived after bullet grazed his ear before shooter was neutralized by Secret Service. Shooting generated lot of discussion about political fallout with Trump's election odds shortening further and coinciding with increased probability of GOP sweep, which is seen putting more traction behind 'Trump trade' (steeper yield curve, stronger dollar).
China Q2 GDP forecast to have eased but remain near government's 5% target. June activity data expected to show slower growth in fixed asset investment (YTD), retail sales and industrial production. Recent run of data indicative of two-speed economy with export growth offset by subdued domestic demand, and an ongoing property downturn. Separately, PBOC expected to leave MLF rate unchanged and conduct partial liquidity rollover.
Markets also dealing with major rotation from big tech into small caps that began after softer-than-expected US CPI last week put more traction behind disinflation narrative. Futures now pricing in strong probability of September rate cut and eying at least two rate cuts by year-end. At the same time, softening macro data and weak corporate updates data feeding doubts about soft landing narrative.
Pre-open Company News:
688234.CH -- SICC Co. guides H1 net profit attributable CNY100-110M, +238-253% y/y
002241.CH -- GoerTek guides H1 net income attributable CNY1.18-1.27B vs year-ago CNY421.8M
600909.CH -- HuaAn Securities reports preliminary H1 net income attributable CNY714.2M vs year-ago CNY657.3M
688036.CH -- Shenzhen Transsion board proposes minimum H1 50% DPS payout ratio of net profit attributable
1919.HK -- COSCO SHIPPING Holdings downgraded to sell from buy at Daiwa
300498.CH -- Wen's Foodstuff Group guides H1 net income attributable (1.25-1.50B) vs year-ago (CNY4.69B)
China growth figures, central banks, regional CPI prints among this week's highlights:
001040.KS -- CJ Corp upgraded to buy from neutral at SK Securities
688041.CH -- Hygon Information Technology guides net income attributable CNY788-886M, +16.3-30.8% y/y
M1GU.SP -- Sabana Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust to hold EGM in relation to requisition letter
000963.CH -- Huadong Medicine announces signing of an exclusive product licensing agreement between its wholly-owned subsidiary and Ausone Biopharmaceuticals
600460.CH -- Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics initiated neutral at Nomura
1882.HK -- Haitian International Holdings upgraded to buy from accumulate at Guotai Junan (HK)
002153.CH -- Beijing Shiji Information Technology downgraded to reduce from hold at HSBC
005940.KS -- NH Investment & Securities Co. upgraded to buy from neutral at Korea Investment & Securities
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
10:00 CST: Industrial Output NSA Y/Y; consensus +5%
10:00 CST: GDP NSA Y/Y; consensus +5.1%
10:00 CST: Retail Sales NSA Y/Y; consensus +3.2%
Australia:
Earnings:
Aussie Broadband (ABB.AU)
New Zealand:
Earnings:
Manawa Energy (MNW.NZ)
India:
Earnings:
Angel One (543235.IN)
Market Data:
Gold (Aug 24): ($9.50) or (0.39%) to $2411.20
WTI Crude (Aug 24): +$0.08 or +0.10% to $82.29
$-¥: +0.47 or +0.30% to 158.3820
$-KRW: (1.01) or (0.07%) to 1374.1000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.18%) to 0.6768
$-INR: (0.00) or (0.00%) to 83.5191
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 7.2488
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