Jul 18 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a mixed open with Asian equities mostly lower Thursday. Sems/tech under pressure, weighing on benchmarks in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Shenzhen Comp leading China market declines while Hang Seng little changed. S&P 500 futures rebounding afterhours. ASX off highs with Australian yield curve bear flattening following hotter-than-expected jobs data. Treasury and JGB yields also higher. Yen erased earlier advance while dollar steady elsewhere. Crude extending rebound from lows. Gold and copper little changed. Bitcoin steady below one-month high.
In central banks, focus on ECB interest rate decision at 14:15CET, press conf 14:45. No change is expected, with a majority of ECB officials having effectively said they need to evaluate more incoming data. BOE's Benjamin speech at 9:05BST at event hosted by ISDA.
Further on today's agenda, the European Political Community meets at Blenheim Palace in the UK, a forum which brings together leaders from European countries to co-ordinate responses to common issues and concerns. France's new National Assembly meets for first time after the legislative election. Press conf of the German Wind Energy Assn. at 11:00CET. European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Jun new passenger car registrations for the EU + EFTA + UK
Macroeconomic updates include: UK Jun claimant count change, Switzerland Jun trade balance (and watch data), Netherlands Jun unemployment rate, Eurozone May construction output
In corporate news, ENGIE (ENGI.FP) posted yesterday after the close H1 2024 Pre-release. Still in France, Publicis Groupe (PPUB.FP) released this morning H1 earnings including headline EPS €3.38 vs consensus €3.39 and raises FY24 net revenue organic growth guidance.
In the DACH region, Novartis (NOVN.SW) reports Q2 Core EPS $1.97 vs consensus $1.88 and raises FY core operating income guidance to mid- to high teens vs prior low double-digit to mid-teens. BAWAG Group (BG.AV) reports Q2 EPS €2.22 vs FactSet €2.16. Out of the Nordics, Telia Co. (TELIA.SS) Q2 EPS SEK1.19 vs consensus SEK0.38 and confirms FY outlook. Telenor (TEL.NO) reports Q2 net income NOK2.54B vs consensus NOK2.28B. Volvo (VOLV.B.SS) Q2 EPS SEK7.65 vs consensus SEK6.87.
On M&A front, Temenos (TEMN.SW) is reportedly exploring sale of Multifonds
Politics/Macro/World News
How von der Leyen built a coalition of compromise for her parliament vote - FT
ECB rates seen firmly on hold, but door to September cut still open - Reuters
UK's Starmer uses European forum to press for EU reset, Ukraine support - Reuters
Keir Starmer's Brexit reboot - Politico
Macron's caretaker Government is digging in for the long haul- Bloomberg
Netherlands Jun Unemployment Rate 3.6% vs consensus 3.8% and prior 3.6%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- reports Q2 Core EPS $1.97 vs consensus $1.88; raises FY core operating income guidance to mid- to high teens vs prior low double-digit to mid-teens
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- reports Q2 EPS $0.59 vs consensus $0.56; reaffirms FY guidance
VACN.SW (VAT Group) -- reports H1 EPS CHF3.14 vs FactSet CHF3.00 [2 est, CHF2.87-3.12]; reaffirms FY guidance
SUN.SW (Sulzer) -- lifts guidance for 2024 order intake and sales
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- reports Q2 EPS €2.22 vs FactSet €2.16 [2 est, €2.13-2.18]
GF.SW (Georg Fischer) -- reports H1 net income CHF97M vs StreetAccount CHF121.5M
MEDX.SW (medmix) -- reports H1 adjusted net income CHF18.2M vs year-ago CHF23.9M
BOSN.SW (Bossard Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF42.4M vs FactSet CHF43.8M [2 est, CHF39.5-48.1M]
SFSN.SW (SFS Group) -- reports H1 net income CHF117.3M vs FactSet CHF128.3M [1 est]
BG.AV (BAWAG Group) -- reports Q2 EPS €2.22 vs FactSet €2.16 [2 est, €2.13-2.18]
Nordics
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- reports Q2 comparable EPS €0.06 vs consensus €0.05; tracking towards mid-point or slightly below the mid-point of FY comparable operating profit guidance
SKF.B.SS (SKF) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK5.19 ex-items vs FactSet SEK4.43 [14 est, SEK4.11-4.94]
SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- reports Q2 adj. EPS NOK1.02 vs FactSet NOK0.88 [8 est, NOK0.33-1.44]
HUSQ.B.SS (Husqvarna) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK2.22 vs FactSet SEK2.86 [6 est, SEK2.72-3.07]
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK5.13 ex-items vs consensus SEK4.43
CTY1S.FH (Citycon) -- reports Q2 adjusted EPRA EPS €0.13 vs FactSet €0.14 [2 est, €0.11-0.17]
RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK1.85 vs FactSet SEK1.92 [4 est, SEK1.81-2.00]
TELIA.SS (Telia Co.) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK1.19 vs consensus SEK0.38; Confirms FY outlook
HPUR.NO (Hexagon Purus) -- reports Q2 EPS (NOK0.78) vs FactSet (NOK0.67) [4 est, (NOK0.71)-(0.62)]
TEL.NO (Telenor) -- reports Q2 net income NOK2.54B vs consensus NOK2.28B
BHG.SS (Lightshop) -- reports Q2 EPS (SEK0.57) vs FactSet SEK0.14 [3 est, SEK0.07-0.20]
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK7.65 vs consensus SEK6.87
VPLAY.A.SS (Viaplay Group) -- reports Q2 EPS (SEK0.03) vs year-ago (SEK75.24); reaffirms FY targets
LAGR.B.SS (Lagercrantz Group) -- reports Q1 net income SEK222M vs FactSet SEK238.7M [4 est, SEK230-248M]
VERK.FH (Verkkokauppa.com) -- confirms prelim Q2/H1 earnings and FY24 guidance as per 16-Jul-24 update
France
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- H1 2024 Pre-release: H1 2024 was warmer than H1 2023
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe)-- reports H1 headline EPS €3.38 vs consensus €3.39; raises FY24 net revenue organic growth guidance
RNO.FP (Renault) -- reports H1 worldwide PC + LCV sales 1.15M vehicles, +1.9% y/y
Benelux
SLIGR.NA (Sligro Food Group) -- reports H1 net income (€1M) vs year-ago €1M; to pay interim divi of €0.30/sh and expects FY24 EBITDA to be the same as FY23
M&A
TEMN.SW (Temenos) -- exploring sale of Multifonds - Reuters
EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis) -- completes asset rotation deal for a 191 MW renewables portfolio in Italy
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- Apax, Bain and CVC reportedly each considering bids for SoftwareONE Holding - Reuters, citing sources
LAGR.B.SS (Lagercrantz Group) -- acquires CP Cases; terms not disclosed
CSH.GR (CENIT) -- acquires 60% of Analysis Prime LLC; terms not disclosed
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Full results from Sanofi's XTEND-Kids phase 3 study published in The New England Journal of Medicine; ALTUVIIIO met primary and secondary endpoints
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche's RHONE-X study met all primary endpoints, showing safety data were consistent with Vabysmo's known safety profile
HIK.LN (Hikma Pharmaceuticals) -- receives permanent J-code for COMBOGESIC IV injection from CMS
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- and Pfizer announce primary vaccination series completion in Phase 3 VALOR Lyme disease trial
Other
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- and Starbucks to deploy fast-charging stations at over 100 locations
RNO.FP (Renault) -- CTO Gilles Le Borgne appointed to strategic advisory role to CEO
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI wins contract to design, build and install electrical conversion platforms in the North Sea
RUI.FP (Rubis) -- announces master shelf facility subscription agreement for $265M
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- announces extension to its ocean bottom node acquisition campaign in West Africa
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SDR.LN (Schroders) -- to overweight at Morgan Stanley
ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to buy at Sparebank 1 Markets
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
Downgrades
RAND.NA (Randstad) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
BAB.LN (Babcock International Group) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
SCR.FP (SCOR SE) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
DWS.GR (DWS Group) -- to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Initiations
VIE.FP (Veolia Environnement) -- buy at UBS
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (2.10%) to 40236.05
Hang Seng +0.51% to 17829.13
Shanghai Composite +0.20% to 2968.72
S&P futures +9.8 vs prior close of 5639.0
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.04%) to 1.0937
$-¥ +0.09 or +0.05% to 156.27
€-¥ +0.04 or +0.02% to 170.90
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