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StreetAccount Summary - Europe Pre-Open: Futures: FTSE +0.5%, DAX +0.3%, CAC flat

Jul 22 ,2024

  • Synopsis

    • European equity markets set for a flat to higher start to the week after last week's losses when the Stoxx Europe 600 ended down (2.7%). Cyclical sectors were the worst performers last week as market participants grappled with volatile US political developments, soft-landing/disinflation traction geopolitical worries and a global IT outage.

    • Asian equities mostly lower Monday. Tech stocks driving underperformance of Korean and Taiwan benchmarks. Shares in Japan and Australia also notably lower. Greater China markets outperforming following surprise rate cuts. More specifically, China unexpectedly cut 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates by 10 bp. Also cut 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 bp - first such reduction since August.

    • US politics dominating press after Biden withdrew from presidential race and endorsed VP Harris as Democratic nominee. Unclear whether Harris as nominee will shake up trajectory of presidential race with Trump still favored to win. Markets eyeing upcoming polls for signals on whether development erodes Trump's polling lead and eases expectations of a GOP sweep that has fueled 'Trump trade' momentum over recent weeks.

    • The week ahead in Europe sees G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Jul preliminary manufacturing/services PMIs as well as a raft of earnings including from AstraZeneca (AZN.LN), Hermes International (RMS.FP), LVMH (MC.FP), Nestle (NESN.SW), Roche Holding (ROG.SW), SAP (SAP.GR) and Unilever (ULVR.LN).

    • Today's earnings/updates includes SAP (SAP.GR) reporting after the market close, along with Logitech (LOGN.SW). Ryanair (RYA.ID) results already on the tape, with Q1 earnings below expectations and the group is also now expecting Q2 fares to be materially lower than last summer (previously expected to be flat to modestly up). Galp (GALP.PL) due to report shortly.

    • In M&A highlights, focus on Unilever (ULVR.LN) as it's reportedly in talks to sell ~£15B ice cream business. Assa Abloy (ASSA.B.SS) to acquire international provider of access management solutions SKIDATA. Philip Jansen speaking with PE about buying Rentokil (RTO.LN), reported the Sunday Times

    • Today's agenda sees Israel's PM Netanyahu due to meet with US President Biden (depending on the US President's recovery from Covid) at the White House; Israeli PM gives speech to the US Congress on Wed. UK's House of Commons (HoC) continues the debate on the King's Speech, Lords debates economic growth, infrastructure and employment. Elsewhere, informal meeting of EU justice and home affairs ministers (through Tue) and EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting. In central banks, Bundesbank monthly report released at 12noon CET. BOE's Saporta speech at 14:30BST at AFME seminar. ECB releases at 10:00CET aggregate result of latest survey of monetary analysts.

    • Farnborough Air Show gets underway, with commentators pointing to possibility of orders for as many as 1,000 aircraft, though a number of theses are expected to be the firming up of earlier agreements/LoI

  • Politics/Macro/World News

    • UK Chancellor Reeves hints at above-inflation public sector pay rise but won't pledge to lift two-child benefit cap -- BBC

    • UK ministers point to tough autumn Budget and possible tax rises -- FT

    • UK needs 'significantly higher' growth to avoid tough budget measures, IMF warns - FT

    • Capacity constraints pose a risk to Irish inflation creeping up again, warns Central Bank governor Makhlouf -- Irish Examiner

    • Netanyahu goes to Washington in the shadow of Middle East disaster - WaPo

  • Top company news

    • Earnings/updates

      • RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- reports Q1 net income €360M vs consensus €544.2M; FY25 traffic expected to grow +8%

      • ALM.SM (Almirall)-- reports H1 net income €15.4M vs FactSet €14.2M [2 est, €12.4-16M]; reiterates FY guidance

      • BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding) -- reports H1 net income CHF77.2M, +19% vs year-ago CHF65.0M

      • VAR1.GR (VARTA) -- in constructive negotiations with financial creditors and potential investors regarding restructuring project

      • MRL.SM (MERLIN Properties SOCIMI) -- reports H1 FFO €0.31 vs FactSet €0.30

      • SF.SS (Stillfront Group) -- reports Q2 EPS (SEK0.22) vs FactSet SEK0.48 [7 est, SEK0.27-0.71]

      • COV.FP (Covivio) -- reports H1 EPRA NTA per share €77.7 vs year-ago €84.1; raises FY24 recurring net result guidance

      • B8FK.GR (Biofrontera AG) -- announces legal dispute over U.S. imports, revises outlook

      • TTK.GR (Takkt) -- reports preliminary Q2 adjusted revenue €260.4M vs-year ago €319.4M; EBITDA €13.2M vs year-ago €26.8M; trims FY EBITDA margin forecast

      • SPEX.SW (Spexis) -- 2023 financials audit will not be completed by 31-Jul-24, therefore expects temporary suspension of its shares by the SIX Exchange to commence sometime afterwards; provides an update to its moratorium status; CFO steps down, effective 1-Aug-24

      • Also reporting today

        • Earnings:

          • DACHs: SAP (SAP.GR), Logitech International (LOGN.SW) (both after market close)

          • France: Icade (ICAD.FP)

          • Nordics: Fenix Outdoor International (FOI.B.SS), Boule Diagnostics (BOUL.SS)

          • Southern Europe: Galp Energia (GALP.PL), The Navigator Co. (NVG.PL), CIE Automotive (CIE.SM)

          • UK/Ireland: MONY Group (MONY.LN)

        • Trading Update: Eiffage (FGR.FP), ID Logistics Group (IDL.FP), Beneteau (BEN.FP), Lumibird (LBIRD.FP)

    • M&A

      • UL (Unilever) -- reportedly in talks to sell ~£15B ice cream business - Bloomberg

      • ASSA.B.SS (Assa Abloy) -- to acquire international provider of access management solutions SKIDATA; price not disclosed

      • RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial) -- Philip Jansen speaking with PE about buying Rentokil - Sunday Times

      • VAR1.GR (VARTA) -- Porsche AG considers minority stake in Varta - Bloomberg

      • VAR1.GR (VARTA) -- in constructive negotiations with financial creditors and potential investors regarding restructuring project

      • FTC reportedly looking investigating management at major oil companies including Hess, Occidental, Diamondback Energy regarding communications with OPEC -- Bloomberg

      • After receiving interest from The Range, Hilco Capital looking at selling Homebase - Sky News

    • Healthcare

      • VLA.FP (Valneva) -- CEPI and Valneva expand partnership to support broader access to chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ

      • ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- Addex Therapeutics's partner Janssen Pharmaceuticals discontinues development of ADX71149 in epilepsy

    • Other

      • AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus hoping for A330neo orders from Flyadeal, Flynas, Vietjet - Bloomberg

      • STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- paid $190.7M (€175.1M) in US fuel-economy penalties for 2019-20 - Reuters

      • SAN.SM (Banco Santander) -- Santander's Ebury appoints banks to lead £2B London IPO that could take place as early as H1 2025 - FT

      • BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- Altice took out more than £1B margin loan against 24.5% stake in BT Group, raising questions over whether stake can be held long term - FT

      • TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat) -- appoints Paolo Pompei president/CEO

      • FNTN.GR (Freenet) -- CEO Chrstoph Vilanek intends to leave the Management board of the company at the end of his term

      • Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $146.7M, (52.8%) y/y - Box Office Mojo

      • OCC finds 11 of 22 large banks it supervises have "insufficient" or "weak" operational risk management - Bloomberg

      • XPeng, Volkswagen to jointly develop E/E Architecture for all locally produced vehicles based on Volkswagen's China Main Platform and Modular Electric Drive Matrix platform

  • Key rating changes

    • Upgrades

      • BILL.SS (Billerud) -- to buy from hold at Carnegie Securities

      • BIOT.SS (Biotage) -- Biotage short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken

      • A2A.IM (A2A) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

      • TPK.LN (Travis Perkins) -- to overweight from underweight at JPMorgan

      • YAR.NO (Yara International) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier

      • EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) --upgraded to buy from hold at Pareto

      • ANTO.LN (Antofagasta) -- to reduce from sell at Peel Hunt

      • RTO.LN (Rentokil) -- to market perform from underperform at Bernstein

    • Downgrades

      • KRX.ID (Kingspan Group) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

      • EVO.SS (Evolution) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley

      • BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan

      • TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- to hold from buy at Pareto

      • IVSO.SS (INVISIO) -- to hold from buy at SEB

      • DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux

      • SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

  • Data

    • Nikkei (1.19%) to 39586.40

    • Hang Seng +0.66% to 17532.81

    • Shanghai Composite (1.01%) to 2952.31

    • S&P futures +13.0 vs prior close of 5553.8

    • €-$ (0.0003) or (0.03%) to 1.0884

    • $-¥ (0.37) or (0.24%) to 157.05

    • €-¥ (0.46) or (0.27%) to 170.91

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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