Jul 23 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended mixed and below best levels. Denmark +1.0%, Italy +0.9%, Germany +0.8% led the outperformers whilst Finland (0.9%) and FTSE100 (0.4%) led the underperformers.
In political developments, French President Macron has called for a political truce during summer Olympics in Paris. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves in New York in a bid to attract investment for projects in green energy and infrastructure.
Central bank narrative in focus. ECB Vice President de Guindos said September's macroeconomic projections will be a key input into the next policy decision. Highlighted that wages are important, but it receives them with a lag and updated macro forecasts will be the most important
Another quiet macro calendar in Europe. Eurozone flash consumer confidence edged up in July to -13.0 versus consensus -13.2 and prior -14.0 to approach long-term average ~-11.0. July reading the highest level since February 2022. Fits in with other consumer confidence data, which has improved with inflation stabilizing on a 2% handle and since the ECB cut rates in June by 25 bps.
In earnings updates, SAP (SAP.GR) reported stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, robust backlog growth, raised underlying FCF view and FY25 EBIT target. Still in the DACH region, Logitech International (LOGN.SW) posted beter-than-expected Q1 and raised FY25 guidance. Also, Porsche Automobil Holding SE (PAH3.GR) and Schaeffler (SHA.GR) lowered guidance after the market close yesterday.
In France, OPmobility (OPM.FP) reported solid H1 and confirmed FY24 outlook, whilst Edenred (EDEN.FP) and Thales (HO.FP) were both trading notably lower post H1 earnings updates. In the UK, Compass Group (CPG.LN) posted Q3 oganic revenue growth of +10.3% vs consensus +9.1%. Out of the Nordics, Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) reported adj EBITDA, EBIT and EPS below consensus. Alfa Laval (ALFA.SS) posted Q2 numbers with group also noting demand in Q3 was expected to be on a somewhat lower level compared to Q2.
M&A news flow included Eni (ENI.IM) exclusivity agreement with KKR for potential sale of minority stake (20% to 25%) in Enilive; could lead to subsequent sale of a further stake of up to 10%. Jensen-Group (JEN.BB) acquiring 85% of MAXI-PRESS Holding GmbH for €34.3M on a cash-/debt-free basis small deals were also announced by (CRH (CRH.LN), Harvia (HARVIA.FH), Chargeurs (CHI.FP), Sedana Medical (SEDANA.SS), UPM-Kymmene (UPM.FH), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS) and Galenica (GALE.SW), the latter increases shareholding in Redcare Pharmacy (RDC.GR) to 10%
In other corporate developments, Axway Software (AXW.FP) launched ~€131M capital increase by way of a rights issue. Elsewhere, Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) issued response on EU Commission investigation; remains fully on track to meet its FY24 guidance.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +1.40%, Travel & Leisure +0.77%, Banks +0.44%, Utilities +0.42%, Retail +0.38%, Financial Svcs +0.32%, Insurance +0.25%, Construct & Mtls +0.20%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.19%
Underperformers
Basic Resources (1.71%), Oil & Gas (1.00%), Autos & Parts (0.91%), Real Estate(0.73%), Chemicals (0.68%), Telecom (0.36%), Food & Beverage (0.33%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.20%), Media +0.08%, Health Care +0.10%
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
ECB
UK
France
Germany
Despite weak economy government collecting more taxes - Handelsblatt
Greece
Tensions rise again in the Aegean - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.4% ITP.FP (Interparfums €46.10, +7.15) -- prelim Q2 earnings; Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+13.3% MNTC.SS (Mentice SEK34.00, +4.00) -- Q2 earnings
+8.4% OPM.FP (OPmobility €9.94, +0.77) -- H1 earnings
+6.8% SAP.GR (SAP €196.50, +12.56) -- Q2 earnings
+5.3% INDV.LN (Indivior £8.34, +0.42) -- initiated overweight at Piper Sandler
+5.2% KAR.SS (Karnov Group SEK76.40, +3.80) -- Berenberg upgrade
+5.0% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.33, +0.02) -- reports cash position as of 30-Jun -24 and provides business update
+4.9% IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group €435.50, +20.50) -- prelim Q2 earnings
+4.5% CPG.LN (Compass Group £22.90, +0.98) -- Q3 trading statement
+4.4% WHA.NA (Wereldhave €14.12, +0.60) -- H1 earnings
+4.2% FRE.GR (Fresenius €31.28, +1.27) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+4.1% EMBLA.DC (Embla Medical hf DKK30.50, +1.20) -- Q2 earnings
+3.6% SINCH.SS (Sinch SEK27.64, +0.96) -- resumed hold at Nordea
+3.6% EYE.LN (Eagle Eye Solutions Group £4.90, +0.17) -- FY trading update
+3.5% BIOG.B.SS (BioGaia SEK128.70, +4.30) -- Q2 earnings
+3.3% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK232.80, +7.40) -- partner Eisai will present latest findings on lecanemab at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference
+2.6% ALVU.FP (Vente-Unique.com €15.55, +0.40) -- 9M revenue
+2.6% IQE.LN (IQE £0.31, +0.01) -- H1 trading update
+2.4% BGN.IM (Banca Generali €40.24, +0.96) -- Barclays upgrade
+1.7% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF268.60, +4.60) -- Q2 earnings
+1.7% BEZ.LN (Beazley £6.61, +0.11) -- confirms no change to current guidance following global IT event
+1.3% STEM.LN (Sthree £4.23, +0.06) -- H1 earnings
+0.7% TIETO.FH (Tietoevry €18.85, +0.13) -- Q2 earnings
+0.1% LRE.SM (Lar España Real Estate €8.20, +0.01) -- Helios RE, S.A. (controlled by Hines and Grupo Lar Inversiones Inmobiliarias, S.A.) launches takeover bid to acquire all the shares Lar España Real Estate
Notable Decliners
-39.4% VAR1.GR (VARTA €2.02, -1.28) -- VARTA CEO says the company needs up to €100M; two different concepts in play for covering financial needs -- Boersen-Zeitung
-22.0% HYQ.GR (Hypoport €267.80, -76.00) -- prelim Q2
-15.4% ST5.GR (STEICO €27.60, -5.00) -- H1 earnings
-13.7% NCAB.SS (NCAB Group SEK76.45, -12.00) -- Q2 earnings
-12.4% EDEN.FP (Edenred €36.84, -5.21) -- H1 earnings
-12.1% BEN.FP (Beneteau €9.08, -1.25) -- prelim Q2 earnings; adjusts FY24 boat operating margin downward; Kepler Cheuvreux, Oddo and Portzamparc downgrades
-11.0% SEDANA.SS (Sedana Medical SEK23.55, -2.90) -- to acquire main supplier Innovatif Cekal for SEK 34M; Q2 earnings
-6.0% HO.FP (Thales €145.20, -9.20) -- H1 earnings
-4.7% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK60.88, -2.98) -- Q2 earnings
-3.8% GIVN.SW (Givaudan CHF4,132.00, -164.00) -- H1 earnings
-3.7% UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene €30.26, -1.18) -- Q2 earnings; acquires Grafity
-3.4% SHA.GR (Schaeffler €5.12, -0.18) -- updates FY guidance
-3.4% HAT.LN (H&T Group £3.94, -0.14) -- trading update
-3.2% ARBB.LN (Arbuthnot Banking Group £9.70, -0.33) -- H1 earnings
-3.1% AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel €56.56, -1.78) -- Q2 earnings
-3.1% PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE €41.32, -1.34) -- updates FY guidance
-2.5% AAL.LN (Anglo American £21.82, -0.56) -- H1 earnings
-2.4% DAE.SW (Dätwyler Holding CHF173.60, -4.20) -- H1 earnings
-1.9% KSC.GR (KPS AG €0.93, -0.02) -- reports preliminary 9M earnings; Lowers FY guidance
-1.8% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £27.44, -0.50) -- Shell seeking to sell its leases to develop wind farms off coast of Scotland - Bloomberg
-1.8% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €7.92, -0.15) -- Santander downgrade
-1.4% EN.FP (Bouygues €32.36, -0.45) -- H1 EBITA
-1.4% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €18.96, -0.27) -- Delivery Hero issues response on EU Commission investigation; remains fully on track to meet its FY24 guidance
-1.3% LUCE.LN (Luceco £1.67, -0.02) -- H1 trading update
-1.2% ENG.SM (Enagas €13.66, -0.16) -- H1 earnings
-1.2% ACOMO.NA (ACOMO NV €17.60, -0.22) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Royal KPN (KPN.NA), Universal Music Group (UMG.NA), Elia Group (ELI.BB)
Denmark: DSV (DSV.DC)
Finland: Stora Enso (STERV.FH), Metso Outotec (METSO.FH), Valmet Corp. (VALMT.FH), Sanoma (SANOMA.FH)
France: BNP Paribas (BNP.FP), Orange (ORA.FP), Carrefour (CA.FP), Kering (KER.FP), Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin (ML.FP), Eurofins Scientific (ERF.FP), Ipsen (IPN.FP), SEB (SK.FP), Elis (ELIS.FP), Nexans (NEX.FP), Sopra Steria Group (SOP.FP), Verallia (VRLA.FP), Ipsos (IPS.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Mercialys (MERY.FP)
Germany: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR), Porsche (P911.GR), Deutsche Boerse (DB1.GR), Hochtief (HOT.GR), DWS Group (DWS.GR), ATOSS Software (AOF.GR)
Italy: UniCredit (UCG.IM), Moncler (MONC.IM), Saipem (SPM.IM), Italgas (IG.IM), Iveco Group (IVG.IM)
Norway: Equinor (EQNR.NO)
Spain/Portugal: Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Banco Santander (SAN.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM), Repsol (REP.SM), Logista (LOG.SM), Acerinox (ACX.SM), ATRESMEDIA Corporacion (A3M.SM), Vidrala (VID.SM), Metrovacesa (MVC.SM), Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL)
Sweden: SSAB (SSAB.B.SS), Loomis (LOOMIS.SS)
Switzerland: SGS (SGSN.SW), EFG International (EFGN.SW), ALSO Holding (ALSN.SW), Cembra Money Bank (CMBN.SW), Cosmo Pharmaceuticals (COPN.SW),
UK: Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.LN), Informa (INF.LN), The UNITE Group (UTG.LN), RHI Magnesita (RHIM.LN), Breedon Group (BREE.LN), Primary Health Properties (PHP.LN), Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML.LN)
Trading Update:
Belgium: Econocom Group (ECONB.BB)
France: Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Voltalia (VLTSA.FP), Groupe Crit (CEN.FP), Delta Plus Group (ALDLT.FP), Solutions 30 (S30.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Groupe OKwind (ALOKW.FP), Adocia (ADOC.FP)
UK: easyJet (EZJ.LN), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), PensionBee Group (PBEE.LN), Ecora Resources (ECOR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Jun unemployment rate 8.3% vs consensus 8.8%, prior 10.2%
Eurozone Jul Flash Consumer Confidence (13.0) vs consensus (13.2) and prior (14.0)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($1.80) or (2.30%) to $76.60
€-$ (0.0037) or (0.34%) to 1.0855
£-$ (0.0017) or (0.13%) to 1.2917
€-£ (0.0018) to 0.8404
S&P 500 +0.36%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.61%
DAX: +10.78%
CAC: +0.74%
MIB: +14.05%
Stoxx 600: +7.62%
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