Jul 26 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets finished higher, near session highs. Construction, personal/household goods, travel/leisure and industrials the best performers, while auto/parts, telecom and chemicals the main laggards. US equities broadly higher in Friday midday trading. Treasuries firmer across the curve after today's inflation data. Dollar index little changed. Gold up 1.4%. Bitcoin futures up 4.5%. WTI crude off 2.3%, near worst levels and on track for another weekly decline. Industrial metals lower.
No change in broader market narrative in Europe. Focus on earnings intra-day after some disappointing updates on the week, which weighed on sentiment. Another light macro calendar in Europe. Eurozone consumer inflation expectations survey showed little change in outlook for prices. Italian business and consumer confidence improved in July. Spanish retail sales missed consensus estimates in June and Q2 unemployment was just below expectations.
In central banks, recent comments from ECB officials suggest policymakers are prepared to cut rates in September after last week's uneventful policy update. BoE rate cut pricing now more than 50% for August and fully priced for two moves of 25 bps by year-end.
In political developments in the UK, The FT and Telegraph sources said UK Chancellor Reeves will disclose a government funding shortfall of close to £20B in her statement on public finances due Monday. The spending audit, which will inform part of the autumn budget process, is expected to prepare the country for tax increases later this year. In France, the train network was hit by a number of arson attacks ahead of the Olympic Games ceremony.
Another busy day for corporate updates; of note out of DACHs, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) reported prelim Q3 earnings and issued a profit warning. Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) reported Q2 EPS €2.95 vs consensus €2.86 with FY24 guidance for revenue, EBIT and FCF remains unchanged. BAS (BAS.GR) Q2 adj EPS €0.93 vs consensus €0.86 with unchanged forecast. Holcim (HOLN.SW) reported Q2 recurring EBIT CHF1.68B vs StreetAccount CHF1.62B. Patrizia (PAT.GR) announced new Group Executive Committee (GEC) as part of new mid-term strategy: targets €100B AUM by 2030 and appointed new CFO. In Southern Europe, Enel (ENEL.IM) and Eni (ENI.IM) reported latest earnings. In France, Air Liquide (AIR.FP), Capgemini (CAP.FP) reported H1 results. From the Benelux, Bekaert (BEKB.BB), Proximus (PROX.BB) issued latest Q2/H1 updates. In the UK, NatWest Group (NWG.LN), SEGRO (SGRO.LN), IMI (IMI.LN) and Rightmove (RMV.LN) also updated investors.
On the M&A front, Metro Bank (MTRO.LN) confirmed sale of £2.5B Residential Mortgage Portfolio to NatWest (NWG.LN).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Consumer Products and Services +1.97%, Construct & Mtls +1.70%, Travel & Leisure +1.52%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.37%, Retail +1.17%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +1.10%, Basic Resources +0.92%
Underperformers:
Real Estate (0.12%), Autos & Parts +0.00%, Chemicals +0.10%, Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.11%, Telecom +0.23%, Banks +0.31%, Media +0.37%, Oil & Gas+0.54%, Utilities +0.74%, Insurance +0.76%, Technology +0.77%, Health Care +0.80%
Macro:
Central Banks:
France:
Germany:
Germany is pushing for a Brexit mega deal (Politico)
UK
Geopolitics:
Peripheral markets:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+21.9% HOFI.SS (Hoist Finance SEK67.30, +12.10) -- Q2 earnings
+13.9% DRX.LN (Drax Group £6.46, +0.79) -- H1 earnings
+13.8% KCR.FH (Konecranes €59.80, +7.25) -- Q2 earnings
+13.8% NXI.FP (Nexity €9.91, +1.20) -- enters into exclusive negotitions for the acquisition of Nexity Property Management by Crédit Agricole Immobilier; H1 earnings
+12.7% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF1.23, +0.14) -- Q2 earnings
+12.6% HEIJM.NA (Heijmans €26.45, +2.95) -- H1 earnings
+9.5% BFIT.NA (Basic-Fit €23.50, +2.04) -- H1 earnings
+8.5% FR.FP (Valeo SE €10.35, +0.81) -- H1 earnings
+8.2% FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux €35.36, +2.68) -- H1 earnings
+8.0% BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas €28.86, +2.14) -- acquires Security Innovation Inc; H1 earnings; BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+7.4% EL.FP (EssilorLuxottica €207.10, +14.25) -- H1 earnings
+7.0% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £3.62, +0.24) -- acquires Metro Bank £2.5B mortgage portfolio; Q2 earnings
+6.8% JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management £0.88, +0.06) -- H1 earnings
+5.7% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.40, +0.02) -- confirms sale of £2.5B Residential Mortgage Portfolio to NatWest; earnings are improved in 2024 and 2025 from this sale
+5.1% AAL.LN (Anglo American £23.80, +1.15) -- Glencore considering bid for Anglo American's Queensland coal mines - The Australian; UBS upgrade
+5.0% SJJ.GR (Serviceware €12.50, +0.60) -- H1 earnings
+3.9% VU.FP (VusionGroup €137.50, +5.20) -- H1 revenue
+3.4% RMS.FP (Hermes €2,075.00, +68.00) -- H1 earnings
+3.4% DG.FP (VINCI SA €108.05, +3.60) -- H1 earnings
+3.3% ENI.IM (Eni €14.49, +0.47) -- Q2 earnings; potential for extra €500M buyback; Financial targets raised and Capex plan on track
+3.1% PAL.AV (Palfinger €23.00, +0.70) -- H1 earnings
+3.0% VK.FP (Vallourec €14.80, +0.43) -- Q2 earnings
+2.5% WBD.IM (Webuild €2.42, +0.06) -- H1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-20.9% FLOW.NA (Flow Traders €15.19, -4.01) -- Q2 earnings
-14.7% LEHN.SW (LEM Holding CHF1,186.00, -204.00) -- Q1 earnings
-13.7% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.17, -0.03) -- places 132.5Mshares at 17p/sh
-11.7% ERA.FP (Eramet €82.20, -10.85) -- H1 earnings
-11.3% PROX.BB (Proximus €6.80, -0.87) -- Q2 earnings; acquires full ownership of Fiberklaar
-7.8% WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie €93.48, -7.87) -- Q2 earnings
-7.7% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €3.57, -0.30) -- prelim Q3 earnings; updates FY guidance
-7.2% LIGHT.NA (Signify €22.42, -1.74) -- Q2 earnings
-5.2% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa SEK144.40, -7.85) -- Q2 earnings
-5.2% FORN.SW (Forbo Holding CHF995.00, -55.00) -- H1 earnings
-4.2% SPM.IM (Saipem €2.23, -0.10) -- update on the stake in KCA Deutag
-3.6% WDP.BB (Warehouses de Pauw €24.96, -0.94) -- H1 earnings
-3.3% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon SEK107.30, -3.65) -- Q2 earnings
-2.6% STLN.SW (Swiss Steel Holding CHF7.40, -0.20) -- EU clears Marcegaglia Group's acquisition of Ascometal's Fos-sur-Mer site
-2.5% CAP.FP (Capgemini €188.85, -4.75) -- H1 earnings
-2.3% BAS.GR (BASF SE €43.74, -1.04) -- Q2 earnings
EU companies reporting on Monday 29-Jul:
Earnings:
Benelux: Heineken (HEIA.NA), Koninklijke Philips (PHIA.NA)
DACHs: Stabilus (STM.GR), Sika (SIKA.SW), Energiedienst Holding (NEAG.SW)
France: Imerys (NK.FP), Thermador Groupe (THEP.FP), Ekinops (EKI.FP)
Italy: Iren (IRE.IM), Piaggio & C (PIA.IM), Cementir Holding (CEM.IM), DiaSorin (DIA.IM), Acinque (AC5.IM), CIR (CIR.IM), Fiera Milano (FM.IT), Lottomatica Group (LTMC.IM)
Nordics: Oma Savings Bank (OMASP.FH)
Spain: Acciona (ANA.SM), Acciona Energias Renovables (ANE.SM), Ebro Foods (EBRO.SM), Gestamp Automoción (GEST.SM), Lar Espa a Real Estate SOCIMI (LRE.SM)
Southern Europe (other): Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange (EXAE.GA), Corticeira Amorim (COR.PL)
UK: Pearson (PSON.LN), Trifast (TRI.LN), Quartix Technologies (QTX.LN)
Trading Update: Cranswick (CWK.LN)
Data:
Economics:
France Jul Consumer Confidence 91 vs consensus 90 and prior revised 90 from 89
Italy Jul
Business Confidence 87.6 vs consensus 87.0 and prior revised 86.9 from 86.8
Consumer Confidence 98.9 vs consensus 98.0 and prior 98.3
Spain
Jun Retail Sales +0.3% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior +0.2%
Q2 Unemployment Rate 11.3% vs consensus 11.4% and prior 12.3%
Norway Jun Retail Sales (5.1%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +3.2%
Denmark Jun Retail Sales (0.1%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Sep 24): ($1.89) or (2.41%) to $76.39
€-$ +0.0011 or +0.10% to 1.0858
£-$ +0.0006 or +0.05% to 1.2856
€-£ +0.0005 to 0.8445
S&P 500 +0.97%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.14%
DAX: +9.94%
CAC: (0.34%)
MIB: +11.43%
Stoxx 600: +7.06%
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