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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.15%) to 8363.84, DAX +0.13% to 18930.85, CAC40 +0.20% to 7646.42, STOXX 600 (0.02%) to 524.94

Sep 02 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended mostly mixed, but well off earlier lows. Real estate a notable outperformer, telecom also held up well; retail, industrials and financial services the biggest decliners.

    • Quiet start to the month with holidays in US and Canada ahead of a busy data calendar culminating with US employment data on Friday. Size of Fed September rate cut could depend on payrolls report given Chair Powell said further weakness unwelcome. Bank of Canada also widely expected to cut rates on Wednesday.

    • In Europe, focus on final manufacturing PMIs. Eurozone final August PMI confirmed 26th month of contraction at 45.8. Fallout from German regional elections limited despite far-right AfD party claiming clear victory in Thuringia and Saxony. ECB policymakers increasingly at odds on growth outlook, with some fearing a recession, others focusing on lingering inflation pressures. Markets almost fully disocunted ~25 bps cut on12-Sept with total easing of ~60 bps by the end of 2024. ECB's Buch said EU banking sector resilient. In UK, new Reed Recruitment data shows UK wage growth highest YTD, challenging BoE easing plans and Labour's economic growth plans.

    • On a light corporate front, Atos (ATO.FP) updates its financial projections for 2024-2027 to reflect H1 results, the current business environment in its key markets, and the expected impact on free cash flow whilst Getinge (GETI.B.SS) announced a provision of BRL240M (~SEK480M) related to an investigation by Brazil's CGU, Atos (ATO.FP).

    • On the M&A newsflow, LondonMetric Property (LMP.LN) announced £70M of warehouse acquisitions and £50M of non core disposals; in other potential deals, Australian property group REA Group announced it is considering a cash and share offer for Rightmove (RMV.LN) +22%, although no discussions have taken place yet. It has until 30-Sep to make an offer. Alos, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) rules out complete sale of steel division to Daniel Kretinsky, FAZ reported.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, UK Aug retail sales monitor - BRC, Switzerland Q2 final GDP, Aug CPI and Spain Aug unemployment change.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Real Estate +1.84%, Telecom +0.72%, Insurance +0.55%, Technology +0.31%, Oil&Gas+0.20%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.24%, Construct & Mtls +0.18%, Travel & Leisure +0.13%, Media +0.05%

      • Underperformers

        • Retail (0.81%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.59%), Financial Svcs (0.51%), Basic Resources (0.34%), Consumer Products and Services (0.24%), Autos & Parts (0.30%), Chemicals (0.21%), Health Care (0.11%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.06%), Banks (0.03%)

    • Macro:

      • Central Banks:

        • Euro zone banks must consider geopolitics in capital plans - ECB -- Reuters

      • EU:

        • EU to tighten hydrogen subsidy rules after China concerns -- Reuters

      • UK:

        • Sir Keir Starmer: Cutting winter fuel payments will stabilise the economy -- Skynews

        • Labour must beware crying wolf about a run on the pound -- Spectator

        • UK suspends 30 arms export licences to Israel after review -- Guardian

      • Germany:

        • 5 takeaways from Germany's eastern elections -- Politico

        • Battered and unloved, Germany's coalition likely to hang on after regional losses to far right -- Reuters

      • France:

        • Macron Quizzes Predecessors as He Tries to Decide on New Premier -- Bloomberg

      • Italy:

        • Italy Q2 GDP confirmed at 0.2% q/q, 0.9% y/y -- Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +45.3% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding CHF1.62, +0.53) -- PKU GOLIKE study results presentation at SSIEM 2024

        • +27.4% RMV.LN (Rightmove £6.94, +1.52) -- REA Group (REA.AU) considering cash and share offer for Rightmove, no discussions have taken place

        • +18.4% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.40, +0.06) -- update on US launch

        • +7.1% ONC.LN (Oncimmune Holdings £0.19, +0.01) -- new $0.7M contract win with a Top 10 Global Pharma Company

        • +3.8% BTLS.BB (Biotalys €2.97, +0.11) -- approval for large-scale demonstration trials of EVOCA in the Netherlands

        • +3.6% SAN.FP (Sanofi €104.36, +3.66) -- phase III Hercules trial in Tolebrutinib meets primary endpoint; Gemini Phase III trial did not meet the primary endpoint

        • +3.6% SAR.LN (Sareum Holdings £0.30, +0.01) -- US patent allowance for its lead programme SDC-1801

        • +3.4% KALMAR.FH (Kalmar €26.70, +0.89) -- Dagens Industri out with buy recommendation

        • +3.1% BDEV.LN (Barratt Developments £5.20, +0.16) -- UBS upgrade

        • +2.3% OMASP.FH (Oma Savings Bank €14.20, +0.32) -- completes acquisition

        • +1.8% CRH.LN (CRH plc £68.48, +1.24) -- completes final phase of European lime divestment

        • +1.6% MAS.NO (Måsøval NOK30.70, +0.50) -- initiated buy at Pareto

        • +1.3% HLG.GR (Highlight Communications €1.63, +0.02) -- Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $77.6M, (13%) y/y

      • Notable Decliners

        • -15.9% CINT.SS (Cint Group SEK9.46, -1.75) -- new CEO

        • -14.3% KNOS.LN (Kainos Group £9.46, -1.58) -- trading update; lowers FY guidance

        • -12.8% AT.LN (Ashtead Technology Holdings £6.79, -1.00) -- H1 earnings

        • -7.3% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €0.79, -0.06) -- updates its financial projections for 2024-2027 to reflect H1 results

        • -4.3% DEME.BB (DEME Group €155.00, -7.00) -- BNP Paribas Exane and Jefferies downgrades

        • -3.4% VTU.LN (Vertu Motors £0.70, -0.02) -- trading update

        • -1.8% FSM (Fluidra €21.94, -0.40) -- CEO resigns

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • DACHs: Partners Group (PGHN.SW), Swiss Life (SLHN.SW), dormakaba (DOKA.SW), M1 Kliniken (M12.GR)

        • Southern Europe: eDreams ODIGEO (ESM), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (OPAP.GA), GR Sarantis (SAR.GA)

        • UK/Ireland: Ashtead (AHT.LN), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT.LN), Craneware (CRW.LN), Johnson Service (JSG.LN), Uniphar (UPR.ID), Midwich (MIDW.LN), STV Group (STVG.LN), Michelmersh Brick (MBH.LN), Alumasc (ALU.LN), Manolete Partners (NANO.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Aug manufacturing PMI

        • Ireland 50.4 vs consensus 50.0, prior 50.1

        • Netherlands 47.7 vs consensus 49.4, prior 49.2

        • Sweden 52.7 vs consensus 49.3, prior 49.2

        • Spain 50.5 vs consensus 52.1, prior 51.0

        • Switzerland 49.0 vs consensus 44.0, prior 43.5

        • Italy 49.4 vs consensus 47.8, prior 47.4

        • France 43.9 vs preliminary 42.1

        • Germany 42.4 vs preliminary 42.1

        • Eurozone 45.8 vs preliminary 45.6

        • Greece 52.9 vs consensus 53.0, prior 53.2

        • Norway 52.1 vs consensus 55.5, prior revised 59.8 from 56.9

        • UK 52.5 vs preliminary 52.5

      • Italy

        • Q2 GDP +0.9% y/y vs preliminary +0.9%; +0.2% q/q vs preliminary +0.2%

        • Jul PPI (1.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.2%) and prior (2.5%)

      • Netherlands Jul Retail Sales +2.6% y/y vs consensus +3.9% and prior revised (0.8%) from (0.7%)

      • Switzerland Jul Retail Sales (sa) +2.7% y/y vs consensus (0.2%) and prior revised (2.6%) from (2.2%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (24-Oct): +$0.25 or +0.34% to $73.80

      • €-$ +0.0019 or +0.17% to 1.1067

      • £-$ +0.0021 or +0.16% to 1.3147

      • €-£ +0.0001 to 0.8418

      • S&P 500 +0.00%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +8.15%

        • DAX: +13.01%

        • CAC: +1.37%

        • MIB: +13.08%

        • Stoxx 600: +9.59%

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