Sep 06 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed lower with pan-European indices ending near worst levels. Belgium (0.0%), Greece and Portugal (0.3%), Denmark (0.4%) led outperformers. Austria (1.5%), Germany (1.4%) and Netherlands (1.3%) led underperformers.
In political developments, Michel Barnier selected as French PM. Press reports highlight dwindling Eurozone EV ambitions. Press reports suggest UK needs additional £1T in investment to grow economy over next decade.
Macroeconomic updates included German industrial production with over 5% decline y/y. In the UK, data from the Halifax Building Society showed house prices rising at their strongest y/y rate since Nov -22 and expect house prices to continue their modest growth through the remainder of this year. Eurozone Q2 final GDP revised lower. ECB wage tracker eased in Q2, aiding ECB easing plans. Analysts expect ECB to guide for rate cuts each quarter and offer trimmed 2024 growth outlook.
In corporate news, InPost (INPST.NA) from the Netherlands traded higher on the back of its Q2 earnings. Sectra (SECT.B.SS) shares were also up following better than expected Q1 earnings. Also in the Nordics, Tecnotree (TEM1V.FH) reiterated FY24 guidance and updates FY25 outlook and guidance. In Spain, Puig Brands (PUIG.SM) issued H1 numbers and reaffirmed medium term guidance. In the UK, Berkeley (BKG.LN) issued a 4M trading statement ahead of its AGM today and said it is on target to achieve FY25 pre-tax earnings guidance of £525M.
On M&A front, Elis (ELIS.FP) confirmed preliminary approach to Vestis regarding potential acquisition
In other corporate developments, Darktrace (DARK.LN) CEO Poppy Gustafsson to step down today; COO Jill Popelka appointed new CEO. Also, ATOSS Software (AOF.GR) main shareholders AOB Invest and General Atlantic sold 1.08M shares at €120/each. Patinex AG (Martin Ebner and wife) raised its stake in Temenos (TEMN.SW) to 20%.
The week ahead sees ECB interest rate decision, EU Commission due to release its latest economic forecast, OPEC/IEA monthly oil market reports, Aug CPI and Jul industrial production releases from across the region, UK employment data, as well as earnings/updates from Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), Baloise (BALN.SW) and Inditex (ITX.SM).
EU Parliament (EP) due to see all parliamentary committees that are meeting voting on their respective input to the Budget Committee's draft report for 2025's EU budget
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Real Estate+0.49%, Health Care +0.00%, Utilities (0.14%), Financial Svcs (0.42%), Media (0.48%), Food & Beverage (0.72%), Chemicals (0.89%), Telecom (0.90%), Travel & Leisure (1.02%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.06%)
Underperformers
Technology (2.39%), Basic Resources (2.34%), Autos & Parts (2.15%), Oil & Gas (2.12%), Banks (2.06%), Retail (1.75%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.54%), Insurance (1.44%), Construct & Mtls (1.25%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
EU
ECB
ECB to cut rates, maintain quarterly pace of rate cuts and trim 2024 growth outlook at 12-Sept meeting - Bloomberg
UK
UK house prices rise for second month as interest rates ease - Bloomberg
UK flat prices lag behind as housing market shifts post-pandemic - FT
UK needs £1T investment boost to achieve growth targets, report says - Reuters
Labour fundraising chief's role in public appointments raises conflict of interest concerns - Bloomberg
UK considers scaling back ambitious offshore wind target for 2030 - Bloomberg
Germany
France
Michel Barnier appointed PM as Macron seeks stability in divided France - FT
Greece
PM to unveil plan to boost pensions, spending power in Thessaloniki speech - ekathimerini
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+7.8% VIL.FP (Viel & Cie €11.10, +0.80) -- H1 earnings
+4.6% SECT.B.SS (Sectra SEK254.40, +11.20) -- Q1 eanrings
+4.5% PSAN.GR (PSI Software €20.90, +0.90) -- H1 earnings
+3.7% DMRE.GR (DEMIRE Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate €0.85, +0.03) -- achieves formal approval for bond extension
+2.6% COL.SM (Inmobiliaria Colonial SOCIMI €6.02, +0.15) -- Jefferies upgrade
+2.4% LEHN.SW (LEM Holding CHF1,218.00, +28.00) -- initiated outperform at Zürcher Kantonalbank
Notable Decliners
-48.4% NFG.LN (Next 15 Group £4.30, -4.01) -- FY trading statement
-16.0% ELIS.FP (Elis €19.37, -3.71) -- confirms preliminary approach to Vestis regarding potential acquisition
-10.7% RUI.FP (Rubis €25.34, -3.04) -- H1 earnings
-10.4% AOF.GR (ATOSS Software €119.20, -13.80) -- main shareholders AOB Invest and General Atlantic successfully place 1.08M shares at €120.00 per share
-8.3% SAMS.FP (Groupe Samse €148.50, -13.50) -- H1 earnings
-7.0% CRN.LN (Cairn Homes £1.49, -0.11) -- CEO places 8.0M shares at €1.84/each
-6.9% RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International €16.74, -1.25) -- AO Raiffeisenbank (Russia) shares are subject to a transfer ban imposed by a Russian court decision
-5.6% CAM.LN (Camellia £42.00, -2.50) -- H1 earnings
-5.2% DHG.ID (Dalata Hotel Group €3.93, -0.22) -- Deutsche Numis downgrade
-4.3% BALN.SW (Baloise CHF158.50, -7.20) -- UBS downgrade
-4.2% MOL.IM (Moltiply Group €33.45, -1.45) -- Q2 earnings
-4.2% GVR.ID (Glenveagh Properties €1.46, -0.06) -- commences previously announced share buyback programme for up to £50M
-4.1% DATA.LN (GlobalData £2.09, -0.09) -- completes Share Buyback Programme
-3.8% ALCAR.FP (Carmat €2.31, -0.09) -- H1 earnings
-3.2% G4M.LN (Gear4music (Holdings) £1.80, -0.06) -- agm trading statement
-2.3% NIBE.B.SS (NIBE Industrier SEK46.48, -1.07) -- transferred hold at Handelsbanken
-0.5% SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling NOK16.22, -0.08) -- new awards for two jack-up rigs in West Africa
EU companies reporting on Monday:
Earnings:
France: Abivax (ABVX.FP), SergeFerrari (SEFER.FP)
Southern Europe: Newlat Food (NWL.IM), Pharmanutra (PHN.IM)
UK: Sigmaroc (SRC.LN), Equals (EQLS.LN), The Pebble Group (PEBB.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Switzerland Aug SECO consumer sentiment index (34.6) vs consensus (32.5) and prior (32.4) - release
Denmark Jul Manufacturing Production +7.3% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior revised 0.0% from +0.1%
Germany Jul Trade Balance €16.8B vs consensus €21.0B and prior €20.4B
UK Aug Halifax House Price Index +4.3% y/y vs consensus +4.2% and prior revised +2.4% from +2.3%
France
Jul Trade Balance (€5.9B) vs consensus (€6.5B) and prior revised (€6.0B) from (€6.1B)
Jul Industrial Production (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior +0.8%
Italy Jul Retail Sales +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior (1.0%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 24): ($1.11) or (1.61%) to $68.04
€-$ (0.0016) or (0.14%) to 1.1096
£-$ (0.0036) or (0.27%) to 1.3145
€-£ +0.0009 to 0.8440
S&P 500 (1.30%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.64%
DAX: +9.13%
CAC: (2.67%)
MIB: +9.60% Stoxx 600: +5.66%
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