Sep 16 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly flat to higher after last week's gains. Recall the STOXX Europe 600 saw a gain of +1.85% last week, with outperformance in the Retail and Tech sectors.
Asian equities mixed Monday. Hang Seng weighed down by heavy losses in property developers. Japan, mainland China and Korea closed for holidays. Another round of soft China economic activity data has reinforced doubts about authorities achieving 2024 growth target of ~5% after industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales growth all missed expectations. Property and credit metrics also came in weaker, underscoring persistence of deflation risks. Multiple economists made further downgrades to their GDP growth forecasts following the data .
In the US, Trump safe after assassination attempt thwarted at Florida golf course. The suspect in Sunday's apparent assassination attempt was reportedly a pro-Ukraine activist. This apparent assassination attempt happened just two months after Trump survived a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania (BBC )
The week ahead in Europe sees BoE and Norges Bank policy decisions, EU's von der Leyen unveil her choice for next team of EU Commissioners, Germany Sep ZEW survey, Switzerland Aug trade balance, UK Aug inflation report, as well as earnings/updates out from retailers H&M (HM.B.SS), Kingfisher (KGF.LN) and Next (NXT.LN). After the EU closes on Wed and Thur there are interest rate decisions by US Fed and Bank of Japan, respectively.
European macro data releases out today include Italy Aug final CPI, Jul trade balance, Eurozone Jul trade balance, Switzerland Aug PPI, Norway Aug trade balance
According to the Rightmove UK Sep house price index,Rightmove said average asking prices for homes increased by 0.8% m/m. September's rise was double the average for the time of year in the series and the biggest for the month since 2016. (Reuters )
In M&A developments, a few notable headlines on the tape: Rexel (RXL.FP) board rejected an unsolicited preliminary proposal from QXO; Rexel received earlier this week the proposal at an indicative price of €28.00 to €28.40 per share. Apax, SoftwareONE (SWON.SW) shareholders discussing potential merger of company with Crayon Group (CRAYN.NO), according to Bloomberg. TI Fluid Systems (TIFS.LN) rejected preliminary 176 pence per share offer from Apollo's ABC Technologies
In central banks today, Bundesbank publishes pre-release in connection with latest Monthly report, scheduled for release in Thu. Latvia central bank's Kazāks participates in the LTV program "Today's Question". ECB publication at 10:00CET of latest survey of monetary analysts whilst ECB's e Guindos speech at 10:10CET at event hosted by El Economista and ECB's Lane speech at 14:00CET at European Investment Bank Chief Economists' meeting. Portugal's central bank releases latest official bulletin. Bank of Italy's Panetta interview at G7-IEA conf and Scotti participates in the 4th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conf. Elsewhere on Mon, Assn of German Banks event on "Competitive strength through securitization - the German industrial initiative presents its final report''. National Steel Summit hosted by NRW Ministry of Economics, speakers include minister of economics Habeck at 17:00CET. Three-day hydrogen congress gets underway; speakers include minister of economics Habeck. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conf (through Fri). In UK, Institute for Government event at 13:00BST title How can the Liberal Democrats deliver a fair deal for housing?.
Also on today's agenda: Swedish and Finnish Governments will hold a joint meeting; PMs Kristersson and Orpo will hold a press conf. and will also take part in a business seminar. Several Swedish and Finnish ministers will be attending joint visits. EU's von der Leyen due to meet with leaders of a number of the parliamentary groups in the EP whilst EU's Jourová and Johansson speak at the EU Days hosted by Lund Univ. (through Tue).
Macro/politics
Trump safe after assassination attempt thwarted at Florida golf course -- Reuters
ECB's Wunsch Says Rates Should Fall But Warns on Inflation -- Bloomberg
Asking prices for UK homes rise sharply in September -- FT
Italy: tax on extra profits resurfaces. Banks and insurance companies in the crosshairs -- Repubblica
Croatia Upgraded To 'A-' On Reform Progress; Outlook Positive -- S&P
Top company news
Earnings/updates
VIRP.FP (Virbac) -- reports H1 net income €94.9M, +27% vs year-ago €74.8M
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Meyer Burger Technology (MBTN.SW), Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW)
France: Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies (ALHGR.FP)
Southern Europe: Kri-Kri (KRI.GA), Toscana Aeroporti (TYA.IM)
UK: Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), Keywords Studios (KWS.LN), M.P. Evans Group (MPE.LN), Wilmington (WIL.LN)
Trading Update: H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS)
Traffic: Aeroports de Paris ADP (ADP.FP)
CMG/events: AstraZeneca (AZN) Meet the Management Event at ESMO at 19:00CEST
M&A
ENI.IM (Eni) -- reportedly in discussions with a number of funds regarding second sale of minority stake in Plenitude - Reuters
RXL.FP (Rexel) -- board rejects an unsolicited preliminary proposal from QXO
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding), CRAYN.NO (Crayon) -- Apax, SoftwareONE shareholders discussing potential merger of company with Crayon Group -- Bloomberg
TIFS.LN (TI Fluid Systems) -- Apollo-owned ABC Technologies reportedly offered to acquire TI Fluid Systems for 180p/sh, or £800M -- Sky News tweet
TIFS.LN (TI Fluid Systems) -- Follow-up: TI Fluid Systems rejected 180p/sh bit from Apollo's ABC Technologies -- Sky News
TIFS.LN (TI Fluid Systems) -- offers response to possible offer announcement by ABC Technologies
SDNS.NO (Shelf Drilling North Sea) -- Shelf Drilling to acquire Shelf Drilling (North Sea) for total consideration of NOK 25.90 per SDNS share
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- struggling to sell stake in UK payments business -- Reuters, citing sources
Healthcare
LLY (Eli Lilly) -- FDA approves Lilly's EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab-lbkz) for adults and children 12 years and older with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis
REGN (Regeneron) -- and Sanofi announced that the FDA has approved for Dupixent (dupilumab) as an add-on maintenance treatment for adolescent patients aged 12 to 17 years
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- announces IMFINZI (durvalumab) perioperative regimen reduced the risk of recurrence by 32% and the risk of death by 25% vs. neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone in muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the NIAGARA Phase III trial
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA approves Ocrevus Zunovo for adults with rMS and PPMS
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Genentech issues press release in connection to previously reported FDA approval of Ocrevus Zunovo for adults with rMS and PPMS
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA approves OCREVUS ZUNOVO as the first and only twice-a-year 10-minute subcutaneous injection for people with relapsing and progressive multiple sclerosis
EXEL (Exelixis) -- presents final overall survival results from Phase 3 CONTACT-02 pivotal study evaluating cabozantinib in combination with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer at ESMO 2024
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- Investigational rinatabart sesutecan (Rina-S) shows promising anti-tumor activity as single agent in heavily pretreated patients with ovarian and endometrial cancers in Phase 1/2 clinical trial
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- provides update on CONTACT-02 Phase III trial in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer following final overall survival analysis
VIRP.FP (Virbac) -- CEO Sébastien Huron resigns
VIRP.FP (Virbac) -- Follow-up: Virbac CEO Sébastien Huron resigns
MDG1.GR (Medigene) -- presents progress on KRAS library and UniTope & TraCR technology at ESMO 2024
FAGR.BB (Fagron) -- completes share buy-back program
BINV.SS (BioInvent International) -- and Transgene's Oncolytic virus BT-001 shows promising antitumor activity in ongoing phase 1/2a trial in solid tumors that failed previous treatments
CANTA.SS (Cantargia) -- presents positive results at ESMO Congress 2024 showing benefit of nadunolimab combination therapy in cancer after relapse on PD1-inhibitors
Other
UCG.IM (UniCredit) -- announces ECB approves €1.7B tranche of 2024 share buy-back program
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- awarded an offshore EPC contract in Qatar worth ~$4B
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding) -- Avanza Bank announces deputy CEO and COO Gunnar Olsson has resigned
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $92.5M, +47.3% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
Downgrades
MTX.GR (MTU) -- to sell from neutral at Citi
NESN.SW (Nestle) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
SDZ.SW (Sandoz) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
Data
Nikke closed
Hang Seng (0.04%) to 17362.46
Shanghai Composite closed
S&P futures +1.0 vs prior close of 5629.8
€-$ +0.0020 or +0.18% to 1.1100
$-¥ (0.66) or (0.47%) to 140.16
€-¥ (0.45) or (0.29%) to 155.55
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